U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the State of the Union address Tuesday evening, and prediction markets are lighting up with odds for subjects the President might mention.
Mention markets at platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket offer customers the chance to predict which words Trump will say during his speech.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi and Polymarket reported more than $10.6 million in mention market contract trades.
- Customers can purchase contracts related to individuals, places, and subjects that Trump will mention.
- Gallup reported that Trump’s approval rating is the lowest its been since the end of his first term.
All that needs to happen for customers to win a contract purchased in a mention market is for President Trump to say their word of choice.
The most likely mention, according to odds on Kalshi, is “250” for America’s 250th birthday, or the 250th anniversary of the July 4, 1776 adoption of the Declaration of Independence. This outcome has a 95% chance of cashing.
Hockey (89%), TrumpRX (88%), Olympics/World Cup (87%), Hottest (84%), and Fentanyl/Cocaine (84%) are also among the most probable mentions at Kalshi.
Polymarket has similar markets available for its customers. According to its odds, there’s a 95% chance Trump says “America” or “American” at least 25 times, a 92% chance he says the words “Middle East,” and a 90% chance he mentions “oil” or “gas” at least three times.
Kalshi and Polymarket reported a combined $10.6 million in mention market contract purchases as of 10 a.m. ET on the morning of the State of the Union. Of that, $8.6 million came from Kalshi.
There's plenty to know in how to trade the State of the Union.
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What are customers trading on?
Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket shows the handle breakdown for each outcome in its mention markets.
The most popular contract purchase at Polymarket is for Trump to say “America” or “American” at least 25 times, with $145,746 in purchases. But while that carries a 95% probability, the second most-popular mention, which is for him to mention Biden at least 10 times, has $106,073 in handle and only a 39% chance.
NEW POLYMARKET: What will Trump say during today’s State of the Union?
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) February 24, 2026
👉 https://t.co/VS12qSsk6N pic.twitter.com/JIBJwrAAxc
The least likely mention available at Polymarket is “Six Seven,” which has $26,999 in trades and an 11% chance. Six seven is a popular internet meme connected to a rap song and a basketball player.
Kalshi’s least probable mention is Ethereum, a decentralized blockchain platform, at only 3%.
Other notable mention outcomes at prediction market apps include:
- DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency): 17% (Kalshi)
- Ballroom: 52% (Kalshi)
- Supreme Court: 75% (Kalshi)
- Minnesota/Minneapolis: 69% (Kalshi)
- Somalia: 33% (Kalshi)
- Kamala (Harris): 31% (Polymarket)
- Israel/Gaza: 92% (Polymarket)
- Epstein: 14% (Polymarket)
- Scam/Hoax: 65% (Polymarket)
- Charlie Kirk: 55% (Polymarket)
An important night for the President
Customers who want their mention markets to be more streamlined can find markets for individuals and locations that will be mentioned, as well as the first subject mentioned.
Trump’s approval rating is only 36%, according to Gallup News. That’s the lowest it's been since he was at 34% during the final week of his first term in late 2021.
