State Of The Union Prediction Markets: Expert Insights On How To Trade In Mentions Markets

For decades, the State of the Union address was a ritual for policy wonks and cable news pundits. In 2026, it has been transformed into a high-stakes arena for a new breed of observer: the prediction market trader.

With over $12 million already wagered on everything from speech duration to specific adjectives, the SOTU is no longer just a speech—it’s a liquidity event.

This surge in interest follows a watershed moment in 2024, where prediction markets moved from the fringes to the mainstream, offering a pro-market regulatory environment and a level of consumer awareness that didn't exist during the previous administration.

Key Takeaways

• Moving the action from the field to the House Chamber: Traders who entered the market during the football season are now pivoting to politics, bringing a sports-betting intensity to the Capitol.
• The Science of Mentions: Data from the first term suggests Trump prioritizes historical precedents and storytelling via gallery guests, creating specific "value" pockets for traders.
• The ‘CNN Effect’: Mainstream media partnerships (like Kalshi/CNN) are now baking these market projections directly into the viewing experience.
• High-Volume ROI: Professional traders are finding value in near-lock attendance contracts, while retail traders are chasing 400%+ ROIs on celebrity guest appearances.

We spoke to Sports Betting Journalist and Prediction Markets expert, Geoff Zochodne for his insights into how the State of the Union prediction markets and prediction sites like Kalshi stand in politics today.

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What will Trump say during the State of the Union?

Mention markets like 'What will Trump say during the State of the Union?' are big business for many professional traders, with hours of research and data going into trades.

Here’s a quick and definitely not-definitive guide on how they make the big bucks:

1. Mining the Past: Traders scan every past transcript to find the speaker’s linguistic anchors, like how often they mention specific rivals or use gallery guests for storytelling.
2. Calculating Value: They look for gaps between the market's odds and their own research; for example, if the market gives a name a 50% chance but history suggests it's a 90% near-lock, they buy in bulk.
3. The News Cycle Filter: Professionals align their bets with the current 24-hour news cycle, assuming the speech will prioritize the week’s top global headlines like Ukraine or Gaza.
4. Watching the ‘Media Effect’: They monitor partnerships between exchanges and major networks (like Kalshi and CNN), as these televised forecasts often influence the general public’s betting behavior right before the event.
5. Strategic Entry & Exit: Rather than just betting and waiting, pros often trade the hype in the hours leading up to the speech, frequently exiting their positions once the price hits a target profit.

How long will Trump speak for at the State of the Union?

BUY: Above 90mins | ‘Yes’ at 63c | 63% Chance

There’s one thing we can count on The Artist Formerly Known As John Barron to do, and that’s talk.

At 1:20:20, the average length of President Trump’s State of the Union addresses is six minutes longer than the next nearest POTUS (Bill Clinton at 1:14:51).

The market currently forecasts him hitting the longest official State of the Union address ever at 96 minutes.

His ‘unofficial’ State of the Union in 2025 was 1:39:32 - buying above 90mins at 63c looks like incredible value.

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Who will attend the State of the Union?

There are two schools of thought around how to trade this market:

1. Low Risk, Low Yield - there are a lot of names in this particular market that have attended every single one of Trump’s State of the Union addresses, or their predecessor did. That indicates they’re a near-lock to attend, even if they are among his many political opponents. How can you trade these? Take, for example, Pete Hegseth - he’s currently trading at a 97% chance to attend, with ‘Yes’ priced at 98c. Investing heavily in Hegseth to attend at 98c would settle at $1.00, giving a modest ROI 2.04%. That’s not a lot, but if you’re trading a lot of contracts: 2.04% of profit is not to be sniffed at. That’s how many professional traders will be tackling this market.
2. Low Cost, High Risk - As with many markets like this: the further down the market you get, the wilder the names get and the greater the ROI you can expect if the person you trade in generates. FIFA boss, Gianni Infantino? UFC boss, Dana White? Elon Musk? All three of them could produce an ROI of over 400%. If you’re trading smaller amounts that you could afford to lose: there’s more excitement and interest to be found at the lower percentage end of the market.

“Mention markets are still a sort of niche thing... This isn’t the Super Bowl or an election, so the trader population is going to be relatively smaller,” says expert Geoff Zochodne. However, he notes that operators are now aggressively using these events to teach the public that they can wager on almost any political nuance.

Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?

This one’s a more focused mentions market but works in very much the same way. And like standard mentions markets: there’s some logic we can apply to how we trade.

As with many official events: transcripts and data are available to help make trading in State of the Union prediction markets a science not a game.

Over his three addresses during his first term, we can get the following information:

• Trump said over 17,700 words across the three speeches

• He mentioned people by name 185 times across the three transcripts

• He mentioned his predecessor twice in total

• He mentioned his wife the most times of any other individual (eight times)

• Interestingly… he only mentioned members of the administration when discussing SCOTUS appointments

• He called out gallery guests as part of his storytelling style - meaning some of the low-cost/high risk candidates for who will attend the State of the Union may well make an appearance in this market if they’re seen in the room.

Trading these markets doesn't just offer profit; it changes the viewing experience. As Geoff Zochodne noted, some viewers may now tune in solely to see how their bets pan out, rather than for the policy itself.

With projections from exchanges like Kalshi being highlighted by major networks like CNN, the "forecast" now helps set the audience's expectations before the President even reaches the podium.

Knowing what we know now: here’s our picks for the best trades in this market:

BUY: Biden | ‘Yes’ at 93c | 92% Chance

Given Trump’s fixation with his predecessors, Joe Biden is likely to come under some criticism.

BUY: Putin | ‘Yes’ at 47c | 51% Chance

There’s a lot of volatility in this particular market: the chance has dropped by 10 points in the last 24 hours. President Trump has mentioned other world leaders over a dozen times through his first three State of the Union addresses.

AVOID: Patel | ‘Yes’ at 53c | 53% Chance

While he’s the most publicly visible head of the FBI since J Edgar Hoover: he doesn’t fit the profile of someone Trump would mention in such a high-level speech.

What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?

Just like the ‘who will be mentioned in the State of the Union?’ market: there’s some science that we can apply to this market:

The prominence of these specific geopolitical markets, like the 97% chance for China, is a direct result of the 2024 election cycle, which Geoff Zochodne highlighted as the moment prediction markets offered an outlet for wagering that state-regulated sportsbooks simply couldn't match: "Prediction markets really rose to prominence in the U.S. during the 2024 presidential election campaign, as they offered an outlet for wagering on the outcome that didn’t exist with state-regulated sportsbooks. That election also ushered in a new administration that has taken a much more pro-prediction market stance, and the federally regulated exchanges have taken advantage of this to increase awareness among consumers and broaden their wagering menu."

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