Kalshi set all-time daily notional volume highs on back-to-back days to highlight a weekend where all prediction-market trading exceeded $9 billion.
- Kalshi generated an all-time-high of nearly $3.7 billion in notional volume on Sunday.
- Sunday’s trading rose 12.1% compared to Week 3 in the NFL.
- Combo trading continues to dominate prediction markets.
The popular trading exchange reached a new record with $3.45 billion in volume on Saturday, according to Aldrin Research, followed by an even higher $3.68 billion during Sunday’s Week 4 of the NFL season. Kalshi accounted for 73.7% of a notional trading volume that surpassed $5 billion for the first time on Sunday.
Kalshi’s dollar volume, which is contracts multiplied by the price of the named side of each trade, reached $643.1 million, a nearly 10% week-over-week increase.
Kalshi reached $3 billion in notional trading volume in a single day for the fifth time and $2 billion for the 17th time since football season began.
Aldrin Research, which calculates volume from 11 prediction markets, reported that the $9.43 billion drawn over the course of the weekend was up more than 7% from the previous two-day weekend, despite data from multiple operators unreleased. Sunday alone increased 12.1%, with just eight of the 11 operators reporting.
Competition rises
Sports accounted for $1.46 billion of the total notional trading volume during Sunday’s heavy NFL slate, while combo contracts made up a massive $3.1 billion. Kalshi surpassed $2.5 billion in multi-contract trading.
Polymarket’s U.S. division generated $631.7 million in notional trading volume on Sunday, which was down from the previous week’s $639 million. Still, the second most-popular operator nearly reached $1 billion in two-day trading, even with partial reporting on Saturday.
DraftKings Predictions generated $217.8 million in notional volume on Sunday, a 10.8% week-over-week increase and a new operator-high since Aldrin began reporting data. The two days led to $372.2 million in trading.
Novig, a sports-only prediction market, surpassed $150 million in trading volume for the first time on Sunday, and parlays accounted for 54% of the operator’s total trading.
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NFL stays hot
Sunday’s notional trading volume for NFL games, not counting combos, rose 7.6% from the previous week to $861.4 million.
Sunday’s primetime game continued to lead all NFL contests in volume, generating $144.3 million in trades. Chiefs-Raiders also went over $100 million, making this the second consecutive week that two games have surpassed that mark.
The Sunday-morning game from London featuring the Colts and Commanders nearly got to $100 million and finished with the third-highest volume. Rams-Eagles, Bills-Pats, Cowboys-Texans, and Broncos-49ers also generated at least $60 million each. Nine games surpassed $50 million, the most of any Sunday this season.
Sunday’s Game 2 of the Braves-Dodgers National League Divisional Series was the highest-ranked non-football contest on the list, generating $38.3 million. More than $88 million in MLB trades were reported on Sunday, just slightly ahead of Saturday’s volume.
Billion-dollar trading weekend
From Friday through Sunday early morning, more than $1 billion was traded on college football, but Saturday’s volume didn’t notably increase.
On Friday, the Pitt-Virginia Tech game was the most-traded contest of the NCAA’s Week 5, reaching $89 million in single-game volume, followed by Penn State-Northwestern.
On Saturday, Florida-Missouri topped $50 million, while Alabama-Mississippi State, Ohio State-Iowa, and four other contests surpassed $30 million in volume.
In MLB, the Padres-Brewers and Braves-Dodgers ranked inside the top 10 of the most-traded games on Saturday.
