Former Republican congressman George Santos is under investigation by the Department of Justice (DOJ) for allegedly using prediction platform Kalshi to engage in insider trading.
Santos, who served four months in jail for wire fraud and identity theft in 2025, allegedly profited from events with outcomes he directly controlled.
Key Takeaways
- Santos is said to have predicted he would not attend the 2026 State of the Union address.
- Kalshi allegedly flagged and reported the trade to the CFTC and the DOJ.
- Santos claimed not to know anything about an insider trading probe.
According to an NPR report, Santos — a former U.S. Representative from New York — allegedly purchased contracts on Kalshi that said he would not attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February.
State of the union update! pic.twitter.com/y9nrYpCyU4
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) February 23, 2026
“I'm going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery,” Santos said in a video he posted to X the day before the event.
Santos was one of many individuals with prediction market contracts associated with the event.
A slew of other politicians, pop culture icons, and notable figures, such as Barron Trump, Erika Kirk, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Nicki Minaj, were also assigned probabilities by Kalshi’s user base. A total of $15.5 million was risked in the market altogether.
Contracts that predicted Santos would attend the event opened at $.16 when the market went live on Jan. 22 and were as low as $.33 the day before the State of the Union. Santos’ video caused the prices to spike to $.76 around 10:00 a.m. Eastern on the morning of the event.
However, Santos never showed up.
Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML 😡🤬
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) February 24, 2026
“Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML,” Santos wrote on X.
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Kalshi reports Santos
All licensed prediction platforms firmly prohibit insider trading and nefarious activity.
Kalshi flagged Santos’ trades and immediately froze his account. The case was referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal body in charge of regulating prediction outlets, and the DOJ, both of which launched investigations into the disgraced politician, according to NPR.
The CFTC and DOJ have not provided any updates on the situation. Santos told NPR that the insider trading probes were “news to [him],” before noting that he had a personal relationship with Kalshi’s co-founder, Luana Lopes Lara, whom he planned to call to learn more about a potential investigation.
A source referenced by NPR claimed that Santos did not know Lara as he described. They also said that he did not accept an interview offered by Kalshi as part of its investigation.
“I hate to disappoint but I don’t engage with rag reporting anymore” Santos cryptically wrote on X on the evening of June 2, the day the reports first broke. “Business as usual on my end haters!”
Santos is intimately familiar with both controversy and the spotlight. The 37-year-old told a series of fabrications during his political rise, such as graduating in the top 1% of Baruch College in New York, having a mother who worked in the South Tower of the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, being Jewish, and having grandparents who escaped the Holocaust.
Despite making it to the U.S. Congress, he was removed from his position in less than a year after a House ethics committee report detailed how he used campaign funds for personal travel, luxury items, and other non-political expenditures.
He was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to wire fraud and identity theft in April 2025, but President Trump commuted his sentence.
Cracking down on insider trading
As Kalshi has grown into the national spotlight, it has taken multiple steps to combat possible insider trading. In February, it announced its expanded enforcement and plans to publish disciplinary records for users.
In other prediction market news, Kalshi also welcomed communication with the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee after Rep. James Comer (KY) announced plans to investigate the prevalence of insider trading operators.
The prediction industry is still very new, but it is growing rapidly. Total trading volume reached $63.5 billion in 2025, with nearly 98% of that coming from Kalshi and fellow standout Polymarket.
