Prediction market notional volume grew week over week for the NFL’s fourth consecutive Sunday, led by Kalshi, which accounted for 71% of the $5.54 billion traded among 10 of the 11 operators tracked by Aldrin Research.
- Nearly $4 billion was traded on Kalshi during the NFL’s Week 5 games on Sunday.
- Notional volume for the two-day weekend surpassed $10 billion.
- Sunday’s primetime NFL game continued to be the most-traded game of the weekend.
The popular trading exchange generated $3.96 billion in trades Sunday, up 7.6% from Week 4 and a whopping 61% since Week 1 of the regular season.
On a Sunday that featured 13 NFL contests, Game 1 of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers, and three NHL matchups, sports accounted for $869.4 million of Kalshi’s total notional volume and more than $402 million of taker volume. Combo plays produced $2.75 billion in volume during Week 5’s slate for Kalshi and more than $3.5 billion total for nine of 11 operators reporting.
Adding in a heavy college football slate for prediction markets on Saturday, more than $10.5 billion was traded over the two weekend days, with Kalshi leading all operators with $7.87 billion in notional volume and $1.76 billion in taker volume.
Huge Sunday
The NFL dominated Sunday’s trading, accounting for $944.3 million of game volume, not counting combos. Three games surpassed $100 million each, with Sunday night’s Ravens-Falcons primetime showdown leading the day with $180.6 million traded.
Sunday’s Eagles-Jaguars early game reached $171.6 million, with the key 49ers-Seahawks NFC West matchup finishing third with $113.1 million. Giants-Commanders and Broncos-Chargers both went over $70 million to round out the top five on Sunday. Four other games surpassed $50 million, including Browns-Jets.
Dodgers-Brewers kicked off their playoff series with $44.3 million in volume, more than the NFL’s Bengals-Dolphins, Colts-Steelers, and Texans-Titans.
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Back over $100 million
Saturday’s huge SEC showdown between Georgia and Alabama generated $110.7 million in volume, the fourth $100-million traded game this college football season and the first since LSU-Ole Miss on Sept. 19.
Oklahoma-Texas was the second most-traded game of Week 6 with a $91.1 million in volume. Indiana-Nebraska reached $73.7 million, and UCLA-Oregon saw $53.4 million traded.
Friday’s Florida State-Louisville game cleared $77 million in volume, while the Iowa State-BYU and Iowa-Washington contests each surpassed $50 million.
Saturday’s White Sox-Guardians ALDS clincher saw more trading volume than all but six college football games.
Operator breakdown
Kalshi wasn’t the only prediction market to have a billion-dollar weekend. Polymarket’s U.S. division surpassed the mark for the second consecutive Saturday-Sunday.
DraftKings Predictions produced back-to-back Sundays with more than $200 million in notional volume to finish third during the NFL’s big Week 5 day. Novig rounded out the top five with nearly $184 million traded on Sunday.
Underdog, Crypto, and Robinhood surpassed $70 million each in Sunday volume.
