Whether it's the Lionel Messi effect, the wild comebacks, or the chance to repeat as an underdog, bettors are loving Argentina heading into Sunday’s World Cup final.
Key Takeaways
- In what could be Messi’s final World Cup game, operators are reporting high bet percentages on his team.
- The World Cup is approaching March Madness-type handle at DraftKings.
- The final match has many betting implications beyond a winner.
Even though the opponent, Spain, upset futures market favorite France in the semifinal and is -150 to win Sunday, La Albiceleste are dominating match markets at multiple sportsbooks.
“Argentina is continuing to win over the bettors,” said Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer trading for Caesars Sportsbook. “The fairy-tale finish for Messi is driving customers.”
Sunday could very well be the World Cup swan song for the 39-year-old Messi. By Friday afternoon, Argentina was getting 60% of the handle and 59% of the tickets on Caesars’ 3-way market. The Messi-led squad has attracted 65% of the bets and 54% of the money to lift the trophy.
FanDuel reported 70% of the tickets and 63% of the handle are backing Argentina, while DraftKings has seen 64% of the bets on the underdog to win in 90 minutes with odds of +255.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello also believes the main attraction is just too much for bettors to go against, especially after Messi had two key assists to lead his team past England in the final minutes of Wednesday’s dramatic semifinal.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“(Messi’s) still doing it at a high level,” Avello told Covers on Friday. “I think it has a lot to do with it. His will to win and the way he does it, not only with scoring, but assists leader on the field. I think that's why a lot of bettors have gravitated towards Argentina.”
Biggest soccer game ever?
U.S. sportsbooks knew the World Cup was going to be huge, but Avello said DraftKings has been “pleasantly surprised” with the amount of action the tournament has generated.
Just how good has it been for the operator? Avello said World Cup betting is very close to surpassing the handle produced by March Madness.
“I always thought that it had a chance to do that, but this last game will tell us,” Avello said. “That's how close it is. This last game will tell us if we're going to get there or not, but it's been an exciting tournament.”
Pre-World Cup projections had the event generating $2.8 billion. College basketball’s conference and NCAA tournaments were projected to reach $3.3 billion.
Through June and into July, sportsbooks have continually experienced their most-bet soccer events ever, especially when the U.S. team won its group stage and made it to the round of 16. Avello said the Mexico-England Round of 16 match generated the highest soccer handle ever for DraftKings, with USA-Belgium a close second.
“This (final) really has a chance to be the biggest of all,” Avello said. “Argentina, the (last) winner, you have one of the most favorite players that people love to watch with Messi. Then on the other side, a (Spain) team that everybody thought had a chance to win it. They were the second choice the entire time. No reason why this game can't be the biggest of them all.”
Golden Boot race
France-England in the World Cup third-place match Saturday isn’t expected to see the kind of action that other games have produced, but bettors will be paying close attention to who scores.
Messi is battling France’s Kylian Mbappe for the Golden Boot, with both players tied for the tournament lead with eight goals each. Avello said the market is still seeing action with Mbappe playing England on Saturday in the consolation game.
Messi is +100 in Golden Boot odds at DraftKings, with Mbappe favored at -125. France is -215 to knock off the Three Lions.
Optimal outcome
Just like with football, America’s most-bet sport, bettors want to see scoring in soccer. BetMGM said this week that 82% of the tickets and 74% of the handle are on over 2.5 goals Sunday.
Messi and Spain star Lamine Yamal are seeing a lot of bets in the anytime goal-scorer markets at multiple sportsbooks. Caesars is pulling for neither to score, and the “perfect scenario” is a Spain victory in penalties, as Argentina is a bigger liability.
“We have high expectations for betting interest and activity for this one,” Bickerdike said. “With a global superstar like Messi and two powerhouses in Spain and Argentina, this World Cup final has the ingredients to be a really great one.”
