Chiefs' Playoff Odds Dwindle as Missouri Sports Betting Booms

Kansas City's loss in Week 14 dropped its playoff probability to 15% and ended its hopes of AFC West contention.

Ziv Chen - News Editor at Covers.com
Ziv Chen • News Editor
Dec 9, 2025 • 15:18 ET • 4 min read
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Kansas City Chiefs' postseason hopes narrowed significantly after a 20-10 loss to the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. The defeat dropped the club to 6-7 and leaves quarterback Patrick Mahomes below .500 in December for the first time in his career.

Key Takeaways

  • Kansas City's loss to Houston dropped the team's playoff probability to 15%.

  • The defeat eliminated the Chiefs from AFC West contention, ending a nine-year run of divisional dominance.

  • Kansas City must win its remaining four games and receive outside help to stay in the AFC wild-card race.

The defeat reduced the Chiefs' playoff probability to 15% on prediction platform Kalshi, while DraftKings listed them at +390 to reach the postseason. The outcome also allowed Houston to improve to 8-5 and hold the final AFC playoff position, increasing the pressure on Kansas City as it fell two games back in the wild-card race.

Kansas City has now lost four of its last five games and has been eliminated from the AFC West race, ending a streak of nine consecutive division titles. The organization has been a dominant presence in recent years, appearing in five of the last six Super Bowls and reaching the conference championship every season since Mahomes became the starter in 2018.

To remain in contention for the playoffs, the Chiefs will need to sweep their remaining schedule, beginning with a matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Even with a perfect finish, they will still require losses from fellow AFC contenders such as the Texans, Chargers, and Bills to keep their postseason path viable.

Their odds of reaching the Super Bowl are long, as DraftKings currently has them at +950 to win the AFC championship.

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Chiefs help boost Missouri's legal sports betting launch

As Kansas City reassesses its playoff trajectory, Missouri entered a new economic phase with the launch of legal sports wagering Dec. 1. The rollout represented one of the most significant policy shifts in the state in recent decades and marked the culmination of a lengthy legislative process.

Strong activity was recorded in land-based casinos and the digital sector, due in large part to the high number of sports fans in the state. Traffic spikes were most visible during major games, especially those involving the Chiefs.

BetMGM spokesperson John Ewing told KMBC News that app sign-ups increased sharply during launch week and that futures wagers on Kansas City dominated early betting interest.

Under Missouri's regulatory framework, operators must submit full monthly financial records to the Missouri Gaming Commission. The state's first official revenue report, covering December wagering activity, is scheduled for release in January 2026.

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Ziv Chen
News Editor

Ziv has been deep in the iGaming trenches for over 20 years, long before most people could spell "geolocation compliance." With a background in marketing and business development at some of the biggest names in gambling tech, Ziv knows the industry from the inside out. Since joining Covers, he's turned his sharp eye (and sharper keyboard) toward everything happening in the fast-moving world of online gambling. Whether it's new state launches, the latest twists in regulation, or what the big operators and game providers are cooking up next, Ziv breaks it all down with clarity, context, and just the right amount of snark. He covers the business side of betting, from affiliate trends and revenue reports to the tech powering your favorite slots. His motto in writing is “let’s make it make sense without putting you to sleep.”

When he’s not tracking gambling legislation or looking for the next breaking story, Ziv is living and dying with every pitch and play from his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers, Pirates, and Penguins. As a Pitt graduate, it’s a city loyalty forged in heartbreak, but one he wouldn’t trade for anything, except maybe a few more playoff wins.

When away from the keyboard, Ziv loves to hit the road and soak up the energy of casinos. Whether strolling the neon jungle called the Vegas Strip, or wandering into a smoky riverboat casino in the Midwest, Ziv’s in his element. He’s the guy chatting with players, blackjack dealers, and asking pit bosses way too many questions, all in the name of “research,” of course. The casino floor isn’t just his workplace, it’s a weird and wonderful ecosystem of flashing lights, wild characters, and pure sensory overload, and he wouldn’t have it any other way.

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