Betting odds to win the 2025-26 English Premier League indicate that the top four teams could be in for one of the closest title races in years.
Key Takeaways
- Liverpool won the league last year after opening third in odds at around +650.
- Man City won six of the last eight titles.
- Chelsea haven’t won the league since 2016-17, and Arsenal haven’t won since 2003-04.
Reigning champions Liverpool are the odds-on favorites to win the title at +160. Arsenal (+210) are just behind, followed by Man City (+320) and Chelsea (+800). The combined implied probability of those odds is close to 106%, more than the total 100% real probability for all 20 teams.
The closest recent title race came during the 2021-22 campaign when winners Man City and Liverpool were only separated by one point (93 to 92). However, fourth-place Tottenham finished 22 points off the pace.
Last year’s 15-point difference between first (Liverpool) and fourth place (Chelsea) was the smallest since 2015-16 when Leicester City won the league after opening with +50,000 odds.
The lack of separation between the teams last year, combined with sportsbooks’ futures odds, suggests that this Premier League season could be the most closely contested battle the top flight has seen in at least a decade.
Liverpool and AFC Bournemouth begin the new season Friday at 3 p.m. ET.
Title favorites
Liverpool finished last season with 84 points, 10 more than second-place Arsenal. They then broke the British transfer record with a $155.6-million move for German midfielder Florian Wirtz and also spent a combined $194 million on attacker Hugo Ekitike and defenders Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez. Despite that, they lost last weekend’s Community Shield to Crystal Palace on penalties after drawing 2-2.
Arsenal finished second in each of the last three Premier League seasons. They spent a combined $223 million to sign midfielder Martín Zubimendi, striker Victor Gyökeres, and winger Noni Madueke. The implied probability of their +210 title odds is only 6.2% lower than Liverpool’s even though they haven’t won the league since 2003-04.
Man City won six of the last eight titles, though their third-place finish last year was their worst since 2016-17. They were also active in the transfer window but didn’t acquire established stars like the two teams above them in the odds table. Manager Pep Guardiola, regarded as the best of his generation, had numerous outbursts last year and did not attempt to hide his struggles with his team’s failures.
Chelsea snuck into fourth place on the final day of the season, but followed that up with a Club World Cup championship this summer. They were characteristically busy on the transfer market and could still be looking to add Alejandro Garnacho, Xavi Simons, and a central defender. They haven’t won the league since 2016-17 but went from 12th to sixth to fourth over the last three years.
Other teams in contention
The only other team with odds below +4,000 to win the Premier League title is Manchester United (+2,000), who finished 15th last year during their club’s worst-ever campaign.
Newcastle (+4,000), Tottenham (+4,400), and Aston Villa (+7,500) are in the next tier of contenders before a dropoff to Nottingham Forest and Brighton at +17,000.
