Historic “Big Six” member Tottenham are one loss in the final matchday away from potentially being relegated from the English Premier League for the first time in club history.
Prediction platform Polymarket has Spurs at a 16% chance to be sent down to the EFL Championship with a season-closing bout with Everton approaching on Sunday.
Key Takeaways
- A Tottenham loss and a West Ham win would send the Spurs down.
- Tottenham beat Everton earlier this year, while West Ham lost both of its matches against Leeds.
- Only one “Big Six” club has suffered defeat, and that was 25 years ago.
Tottenham had a chance to essentially guarantee their safety in the Premier League on Tuesday when they came up against their London rival, Chelsea.
As has been the case all season for Tottenham, the script didn’t go according to their plan. Enzo Fernandez opened the scoring in the 18th minute, before an Andrey Santos second in the 67th ensured that Richarlison’s 74th-minute tap-in amounted to nothing.
Coming out of the rivalry clash, prediction platform Polymarket has Tottenham at a 16% chance to suffer a drop to the second tier of English football. Fellow Londoners West Ham are still the overwhelming favorite to join Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley in the relegation zone with an 85% chance.
There’s only one realistic route for West Ham to avoid the drop and to send Tottenham down in their place: They must defeat 14th-place Leeds, while Spurs must lose to 12th-place Everton on Sunday.
A Tottenham draw would put them three points clear of West Ham and would require the latter to win by at least 12 goals for them to level the goal difference tiebreaker, sending the relegation race to a goals scored second-tiebreaker. That prospect is effectively impossible, since no team has ever scored more than nine goals in one Premier League match.
Had Spurs secured even one point on Tuesday, they would’ve had West Ham over a barrel. Instead, their loss at Stamford Bridge leaves everything to play for at the weekend, which marks the final matchday of the 2025-26 EPL season.
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Tottenham could make history
Tottenham’s “Big Six” status refers to a group of teams that were in perennial title contention during the 2010s. Those teams were Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham.
The only “Big Six” member to suffer relegation in the Premier League era was Man City in 2000-01, before a change in ownership gave them superior financial backing and allowed them to grow into the global giant they are today.
Despite that precedent, Tottenham is on the verge of adding an ill-fated twist to an illustrious group of clubs.
Polymarket's Premier League prediction markets show that Tottenham has a 52% chance to defeat Everton, from whom they took three points in a 3-0 victory on Oct. 26. There's also a 25% chance of a draw and of an Everton win.
Despite their inferior record, West Ham is a nearly identical 53% favorite to defeat Leeds on Sunday. That’s despite Leeds scoring a 2-2 (4-2) win on penalty kicks in the FA Cup on April 5 and a 2-1 win in the Premier League on Oct. 24.
There are also 25% chances of a draw and of a Leeds win, according to the Polymarket user base.
Assuming these probabilities are exact reflections of reality, there’s a mathematical 13.3% chance of Tottenham going down. That’s based on the 53% chance of West Ham beating Leeds and the 25% chance of Tottenham losing to Everton both occurring.
All eyes on Matchweek 38 on Sunday
All 20 Premier League teams will take their respective pitches at 11 a.m. ET on Sunday.
Arsenal have already locked up the league title, although there are still ongoing races for European competition and, of course, the third and final relegation spot.
