The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race has seen significant odds movement before the preseason, with several top contenders facing questions about playing time and health.
Key Takeaways
- De'Zhaun Stribling has surged up the odds board after injuries depleted San Francisco's receiving corps.
- Jeremiyah Love is the current favorite at Caesars (+400).
- The last seven OROY winners were all quarterbacks (four) or wide receivers (three).
If reports from training camps across the country are accurate, unpredictability is the name of the game.
Wide receiver De'Zhaun Stribling's surge into the top seven in OROY odds was totally unexpected. The San Francisco 49ers' second-rounder - considered by many to be the “reach” of the draft - opened at +12,500 consensus odds in the awards race. He’s already down to as low as +1,200 at Caesars Sportsbook, tying him with the Philadelphia Eagles’ Makai Lemon.
Arizona Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love remains the favorite at +400, although he’s been relegated to working behind veteran Tyler Allgeier. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett also didn’t give a glowing endorsement of the third overall pick when he was given the opportunity.
Arizona Cardinals Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett told reporters that Jeremiyah Love was "definitely a rookie" in a press conference.
— The Irish Tribune (@theirishtribune) July 26, 2026
Love was the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft, and was widely expected to be named the starter for the Cardinals in the 2026 season.… pic.twitter.com/PQqpayjzwN
Even if Love sees the field early, he’ll be running behind a porous offensive line and for a team that will frequently play from behind. A similar situation plagued sixth overall pick Ashton Jeanty, who ran for 975 yards but only averaged 3.7 yards per carry just last year.
Just behind Love is Las Vegas Raiders quarterback and first overall pick Fernando Mendoza (+450). While the NFL is a QB-driven league, there’s no guarantee the reigning Heisman winner will even see the field this season.
“(The Raiders want Kirk) Cousins to play as well as he possibly can, to stay healthy, to give them a chance to win, and allow Mendoza the time necessary for him to (develop) and get a chance to go out there when he is ready to play,” NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said in June.
From The Insiders on @NFLNetwork: #Raiders QB Kirk Cousins was open and honest about his mentorship of Fernando Mendoza. And that's just fine. pic.twitter.com/5P9CFPkhFW
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 12, 2026
Carnell Tate, the third favorite (+600), is seemingly the only top candidate with a normal path to the award. Jordyn Tyson (+600) missed offseason practices and has battled recurring injuries, Jadarian Price (+700) reportedly could start the season in a committee in the Seattle Seahawks’ backfield, and Lemon (+1,200) is nursing a hamstring ailment.
Then there’s Stribling, who had a 0.8% implied chance of winning the award before injuries to Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall, and Christian Kirk wiped out the 49ers' receiver room.
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Value farther down the board
NFL Rookie of the Year odds favorites typically have straightforward paths to production and playing time. That’s not the case this time, as the players further down the odds board appear to be in better positions on paper.
KC Concepcion (+3,000) - who sits ninth on Caesars’ NFL OROY odds board - is projected to be the Cleveland Browns’ No. 2 receiver, just behind Jerry Jeudy. His teammate, Denzel Boston (+3,000), is projected to be No. 3, though he could rival his rookie classmate for opportunities.
Washington Commanders wideout Antonio Williams (+3,000) also has an opportunity to take on a prominent role. The Commanders are searching for their WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, and the well-accomplished Williams brings talent and pedigree after spending four years at Clemson.
Even the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Ted Hurst III (+6,000) was reportedly playing as the X receiver during training camp, allowing Emeka Egbuka to play as the Z. Hurst is not listed in ESPN’s projected starting depth chart, but reports say he has made numerous splash plays at practice.
OROY odds, trends
Quarterbacks and wide receivers won all of the last seven Offensive Rookie of the Year awards, breaking a stretch of three running backs in four years.
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, last season's eventual winner, opened at about +1,400. That odds value most closely aligns with Lemon and Stribling (both +1,200).
