The Kentucky Derby is the Super Bowl of horse racing. And like the Big Game, the “Run for the Roses” has no shortage of betting options.
If you’re looking beyond the standard Kentucky Derby racing odds and hunting for value in these alternative markets, racing analyst Monique Vag has some of the best bets for the Derby that you didn’t know about.**video
The favorite at Post Time Will be: < 3/1 Less than, or equal to 3/1 (+110) or > Greater than (-150)?
Although the late scratch of Omaha Beach directly affects the odds of every other runner, the late scratch makes the field even more wide open. With the current favorite Game Winner at 5/1 odds, and two other runners in Roadster 6/1, and Improbable at 6/1, it doesn’t seem like a runner will dip much below their current odds.
FIND THE LATEST KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS AND FANTASTIC BETTING BONUSES AT TWINSPIRES!
Along with the public split on who to make the betting favorite, there are other horses like Maximum Security, who is the only undefeated runner, Tacitus a horse that has been steadily improving, and Win Win Win, this year’s wiseguy horse, who will all likely be lower than their morning line odds at post time. Expect to see the odds on the lower priced horses change quite a bit leading up to the call to post.
Pick: Greater than 3/1 (-150)
Last-place horse saddlecloth number will be: Odd (-200) or Even (+160)?
More often than not the last-place finisher of the race is a horse who unfortunately records a DNF (did not finish) or had to be pulled up due to injury. If the race is clean and runners all have a fair shot, of the 10 horses with morning line odds of 15-1 or higher, five of them will be racing out of an Even saddlecloth.
Two of the longest shots on the board at 50/1 are racing out of an Even and Odd posts, and at +160 there seems to be sufficient value to take a shot on a 50/50 proposition bet.
Pick: Even (+160)
Will the winning trainer be a first-time Derby winner: Yes (+250) or No (-400)?
Three trainers with plenty of Kentucky Derby experience are seeking their first Derby win: Steve Asmussen (0 for 19; Long Range Toddy), Bill Mott (0 for 8; Tacitus), and Kieran McLaughlin (0 for 9; Haikal). There are five other trainers in Brendan Walsh (Plus Que Parfait), Bret Calhoun (By My Standards), Danny Gargantuas (Tax), and Joachim Tsunoda (Master Fencer), Gustavo Delgado Jr. (Bodexpress) saddling horses for the first time.
With the best shot out of those runners being Tacitus, it seems likely another prior Kentucky Derby-winning trainer adds to their resume with another victory at Churchill Downs. Perhaps take a shot on a few of these runners individually for substantially better odds than +250.
Pick: No (-400)
Will the 2019 Kentucky Derby Handle exceed 2018: Yes (EVEN) or No (-140)?
Last year broke another record with the amount of money wagered on the Churchill Downs card, totalling $227.5 million - up from the previous record of $209.2 million set in 2017. The Derby race itself set a record with $149.9 million wagered in 2018, which was an increase of nearly 8 percent from 2017. These figures factor in the amount of money taken on North American racetracks and do not include online figures from sportsbooks or Nevada.
With a wide-open field, and no emotional story line for casual fans, look for the betting handle to be lower than last year’s.
Pick: No (-140)
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
21+. Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.
