But, if you’re not a professional sports bettor, you don’t have a lot of time to dedicate to the pursuit of value. Chances are you have 40 minutes after work to get the kids fed and off to soccer practice before coming home with 15 minutes before tipoff.
So, in order to help you see the forest through the trees, we picked the brains of some of the top betting minds in the business and asked them which bets, trends, situations, or odds provide the most value in just about every sport on the board.
NFL
Contrary to many beliefs, teasers aren’t for squares and suckers – at least not anymore. Teasers, which are basically parlays in order to get more advantageous odds, have become increasingly popular. The two-team teaser is the weapon of choice for many NFL bettors, including sharps who see true value in these alternative spreads.
“I usually like to take a pair of bigger favorites that I'm near 100 percent confident in winning the game outright and teasing them down to a pick 'em or near pick 'em,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “Sharp bettors will tell you that moving lines across the key numbers of three and seven provides significant value.”
MLB
The tough thing about betting baseball is that the value can quickly get sucked out of a line by the time you’re ready to wager. In the 162-game marathon, the early bird does get the worm, according to Covers Expert Sean Murphy. He looks specifically at moneyline underdogs as soon as the odds are released.
“More often than not, if you like a dog, you'll want to get a piece of the overnight line,” says Murphy.
NBA
At this point of the NBA season, the odds are pretty tight, leaving little margin for error. Books and bettors know what to expect, even more so as a playoff series progresses. However, looking outside of the normal spread and total can open the door for value. Alternative wagers, like game and player props, can be ripe for the picking if you know what to look for.
“Right now, across sports, the most beatable market is probably prop wagers,” says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky. “Books are posting very low limits and relatively high juice on these wagers, insulating themselves from significant wiseguy action. So, for the average bettor looking to get down three-figure wagers - as opposed to four or five-figure wagers from sharps - they can consistently find solid proposition wagers to make. The lines between 'fantasy' gambling and 'sportsbetting' gambling become blurrier and blurrier with each passing year.”
NHL
Reverse pucklines can hand out a healthy payday – if your sportsbook offers them. This is a rare wager, which allows hockey bettors to flip the 1.5-goal spread, AKA the puckline, on the underdog, providing some larger odds if the pup can cover the -1.5 goals.
“If you think an underdog has a shot, sprinkle a little on the reverse puckline, but only a small percentage of your larger wager on the moneyline,” advises Murphy.
NCAAF
College football may have 13 games on the schedule, but one loss can end a season in an instant. For BCS contenders, staying perfect is nearly a necessity if they want to play for the national championship. That mindset offers a ton of value after a big-name program has suffered a crushing defeat and has lost that BCS-related motivation.
“Fading high-profile teams off their first loss of the season generally works well in these 'bubble burst' situations,” says Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
NCAAB
With so many games going on a given Saturday, oddsmakers have a tough time tracking and setting prices, especially second-half lines. Paying attention to statistical anomalies and player progress – like a star player getting into early foul trouble – can pay off in the final 20 minutes. This becomes even more valuable in mid-major conferences, which sit lower on the oddsmakers’ totem pole.
“You know if a team goes 7 for 9 from 3-point land in the first half against a team that had to sit their star player because of two fouls, that things are probably going to go the other way in the second half,” says Jeremy Martin of Doc’s Sports.
WNBA
The WNBA is often forgotten about until the NBA playoffs conclude. I’m sure there are some of you reading this who have no idea the WNBA is actually heading into its fourth week of play. But when baseball is the only thing going in the dog days of summer, many sharps turn to the Dub for a change of pace. Knowing even a little bit about league matchups as well as keeping up with team news and trends can quickly make the WNBA a favorite.
“Virtually every WNBA play I make is against the grain or against the so-called public,” says Murphy. “It's usually best to bet ladies ball close to tipoff, once the betting majority has stepped in and forced a line move.”
Golf
The major tournaments get a lot of action from average bettors, looking to watch and wager on the weekend. However, golf betting isn’t just reserved to The Masters and U.S. Open, with weekly tournaments on the PGA, LPGA, European, and Champions Tour. And with big names like Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy always topping the odds, there is plenty of value in golfers below them.
“One big thing to look at is course history as some players tear up the same course every year while others struggle,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo. “If you can find a player with relatively high odds who has had success at a certain event in the past and is playing particularly well at the time, that is where the best value is. Betting on matchups is also a good way to make money based on a lot of the same factors.”
Soccer
European markets are dominated by soccer action, much like how the NFL is the category killer of North American sports betting. The “Beautiful Game” is gaining momentum on the continent but still suffers due to its lack of scoring. However, that pace can provide solid value and may just make you a fan of footy after all.
“While it is not very exciting rooting for a tie, I always think there is value in betting the draw,” says Martin. “Because it is so boring and not a lot of people like to bet it, there is often extra value in the moneylines. And you would be surprised how many soccer matches end in draws.”
Tennis
The average bettor isn’t going to wager $100 on a -10,000 favorite in the first round of a tournament. But that’s one of the issues faced when bettors look to wager on the world’s top tennis stars. Players like Novak Djokovic carry those lofty price tags until at least the semifinals. Tennis fans can find better ways to wager by looking at match props, like over/under games or how many sets it will take a player to win.
NASCAR/Racing
NASCAR isn’t as popular as it was in the early 2000’s but there is still a loyal following of race fans wagering on the Sprint Cup Series, as well as the Nationwide and Truck Series, every weekend. The same goes for open-wheel racing like F1 and Indy. Sharp racing bettors do their homework and keep a close eye on the practice and qualifying runs.
“Playing odds to win allows you take three or four different drivers and if one hits, you still make a profit,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “Head-to-head matchups are also nice because instead of having to beat all other 42 drivers, you only have to finish better than one other driver.”
Boxing/MMA
The ongoing debate of boxing versus MMA has spilled over to the sportsbooks. Boxing holds many more events over the course of a year, so the overall handle is larger. However, single MMA events bring in more money than the average boxing card. Figuring out which way the opening lines are going to move is a great way to grab value in both sports.
“There are often some heavy favorites in MMA, and they are heavy favorites for a reason,” says Martin. “What I like to do when betting MMA is parlay a couple of the favorites I feel really confident about. That is the smartest bet and has less risk then going in heavy on one large favorite.”
Horse Racing
Horse racing is getting a lot of extra attention thanks to Triple Crown hopeful I’ll Have Another, which heads to the Belmont Stakes as a +120 favorite. However, it is the bigger events - like the Belmont, Preakness and Kentucky Derby - that offer the least amount of value thanks to their public stage. Looking past the straight wager and at the trifecta and exacta is a nice way to up your payout.
“Exacta and trifecta boxes allow you to make a small risk and win big if you hit the right combination,” says Merril. “This allows you to box three or four different horses and if you have a long shot - 15-1 or 20-1 or better - in the mix, an exacta and trifecta box can pay nicely.”
