The PGA Tour begins the California Swing this week with The American Express, and going low is the No. 1 priority to winning.
While World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in The American Express odds, I’m looking further down the board with Ludvig Aberg and Michael Thorbjornsen headlining my American Express predictions and golf picks this week.
Golf picks for the 2025 American Express
- Aberg to win outright (+2000 at Fanatics)
- Thorbjornsen to win outright (+5000 at Fanatics)
- Hall Top 20 (+175 at Fanatics)
- Coody Top 20 (+260 at Fanatics)
- Hoey Round 1 score Over 69.5 (+115 at Fanatics)
American Express outright picks
Outright pick: Ludvig Aberg
+2000 at Fanatics
With eight consecutive Top 25s while gaining true strokes across the board, Ludvig Aberg is dialed in, and the run also includes four Top 10s.
The two-time PGA Tour winner ranked 23rd and 26th in birdie-or-better percentage the past two PGA Tour seasons, too, so it’s no sweat stringing together circles on the card for the Swede. Plus, he's a threat to win whenever he tees it up.
Outright pick: Michael Thorbjornsen
+5000 at Fanatics
Michael Thorbjornsen had a pair of Top-10 finishes in the fall and ranked eighth in birdie-or-better percentage and first in greens-in-regulation on the PGA Tour last season.
I also value him ranking 24th in bogey avoidance to go alongside ranking fifth in this field in true strokes gained off-the-tee across his past 20 rounds.
Add Thorbjornsen ranking 10th in Par-5 scoring average last season, and I like him to make a serious run at a win this week.
American Express prop picks
Finishing position pick: Harry Hall Top 20
+175 at Fanatics
Harry Hall started the 2026 season where he left off last year with a T6 at the Sony Open, and it was his 13th Top-25 finish across his past 16 worldwide events.
The Englishman continues to showoff impressive consistency, and this will be his fifth trip to this event. He finished the 2025 season ranked third in birdie-or-better percentage and 17th in Par-5 scoring, too.
Finishing position pick: Pierceson Coody Top 20
+260 at Fanatics
Pierceson Coody is coming off a sneaky T13 at the Sony Open after gaining true strokes across the board, and he also ranked fourth in birdie-or-better percentage and paced the PGA Tour in Par-5 scoring average last season.
With his game trending in the right direction after playing the weekend in all six fall events with a quartet of Top 25s, I'm anticipating another strong showing from Coody to begin the California Swing.
American Express first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Richard Hoey Over 69.5
+115 at Fanatics
Playing Round 1 on the Pete Dye Stadium Course is a tough draw for Richard Hoey, and he only made three birdies across his two rounds on the track en route to firing weekend scores of 74 and 76 last season. He shot 70 in Round 2 of the 2024 event, too.
Hoey also ranks 137th in this field in true strokes gained putting across his past 11 events, and he had no answer for these greens last year, either. He lost 7.06 strokes putting to the field over the highlighted final two rounds of the 2025 Amex.
American Express odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +330
- Ben Griffin: +2200
- Robert MacIntyre: +2200
- Russell Henley: +2200
- Ludvig Aberg: +2500
- Patrick Cantlay: +3000
- Si Woo Kim: +3000
Odds courtesy of Fanatics.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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