Round 3 once again proved that Oak Hill is no joke and that the TOUR completed its goal of making this track play extremely difficult, although the weather is certainly not helping.
The leading score is just 6-under, with Brooks Koepka leading the pack entering the final round.
Below, we look ahead at the current PGA Championship odds and give you my best PGA Championship pick for the fourth round.
PGA Championship Round 4 picks
Picks made on 5/20/2023 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best 2023 PGA Championship Round 4 picks
Kitayama over Fox (-105)
Currently tied for 16th place entering the final round, both Kurt Kitayama and Ryan Fox are almost certainly out of contention to win this tournament. With that said, there is still a ton of prize money and FedEx points on the line with each additional spot they move up the leaderboard, so we are still going to get their very best on Sunday.
With that said, Kitayama’s best should outlast Fox’s best. Currently ranked 21st in the world, Kitayama is putting together another tremendous campaign after a strong showing in his 2022 rookie season. Not only did he notch his first career TOUR victory this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he has also posted five other Top 25 finishes over the other 14 events, including his runner-up performance at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina.
Meanwhile, Ryan Fox typically plays all over the world, whether it be the PGA TOUR, European Tour or PGA Tour of Australasia. The 36-year-old currently holds the 41st ranking in the world, which is anchored by some strong performances on the PGA TOUR this season.
He finished T26 at the Masters Tournament, T27 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and T14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational — the event that Kitayama won. However, despite Fox’s success this season, I am not sold on whether his results through the first three rounds of this tournament will be sustainable on Sunday.
With thin fairways, thick rough, and hazards lining the fairways and protecting the greens, accuracy is key at Oak Hill. On TOUR this year, Fox possesses a troubling 53.57% Driving Accuracy percentage.
We have seen that aspect of his game give Fox some trouble this week, and that is just one of the many categories that he trails Kitayama in. Among the remaining field, Kitayama ranks 50 spots higher than Fox in strokes gained approach to the green, 27 spots higher in strokes gained tee to green, 41 spots higher in GIR% and 11 spots higher in FIR%.
Those latter two rankings are perhaps the most telling, and Kitayama will be rewarded for that accuracy on Sunday with some tough pin placements. In fact, he is performing better in every aspect of the game outside of putting and scrambling, the two most volatile metrics in golf.
Considering that and all the other aforementioned variables, I like Kitayama to shoot lower than Fox on Sunday’s fourth and final round.
Best odds: Kurt Kitayama Over Ryan Fox in Round 4 (-105 at DraftKings)
