World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the PGA Championship odds heading into the weekend, and there’s no doubt, he carded two excellent rounds without playing his tightest tee-to-green game.
It’s a scary thought for the rest of the field that Scheffler’s best could still be in front of him. Additionally, the leaderboard is sneaky good with multiple PGA Tour and international winners in the hunt.
Here are my top golf picks following Round 3 of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club.
Best PGA Championship Round 3 predictions
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top 20
-105 at bet365
The leaderboard is going to be incredibly fluid this weekend with a large chunk of the field settled between -4 and -1. Tommy Fleetwood is among the most talented and experienced players in that range, and he fired consecutive 70s to sit T27 at -2 heading into Round 3.
Fleetwood has been largely solid and ranks 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green (+2.79) through two rounds. The issue has been his approach game (-0.01) and work on the greens (-0.19).
Considering he headed to Quail Hollow gaining +0.27 true strokes putting and +0.74 on approaches per round across his prior eight events, I expect Fleetwood to surge comfortably into the Top 20 this weekend.
Pick: Matt Wallace Over Tom McKibbin
-105 at DraftKings
Tom McKibbin is a rising star, and he’s already flashed on the LIV Golf tour. I’m just not convinced he’s set to have a banner weekend in his third major championship and first competitive trip to Quail Hollow.
He had lost true strokes on approaches and on the greens in consecutive events before the PGA Championship, too.
Turning to Matt Wallace, he is far more experienced, and he did card a T6 in the 2021 Wells Fargo at this track.
Additionally, Wallace has scored without strong iron play. He’s 110th in the field in true strokes gained on approaches through two rounds, but showed marked improvement Friday (-1.07 vs. -0.01).
Pick: Xander Schauffele Under 70.5 Round 3 score
+115 at DraftKings
It’s been an underwhelming start to the PGA Championship for the defending champion, but I’m encouraged with Xander Schauffele rallying with a finishing 34 on the back nine to make the cut Friday because his game hasn’t been dialed in.
The good news is he’s 10th in true strokes gained off-the-tee, so the two-time major champion is positioning himself to succeed.
Of course, Schauffele has a sterling course history at Quail Hollow. With consecutive solo seconds while gaining true strokes across the board in the Wells Fargo the past two years. He shot 70 or below in seven of those eight rounds, too.
Latest PGA Championship odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +210
- Bryson DeChambeau +850
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +1200
- Jhonattan Vegas +1200
- Si Woo Kim +1200
- Max Homa +1800
- John Rahm +2500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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