3M Open Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Kitayama's Ball-Striking Will Shine

Our 3M Open sleeper picks target Kurt Kitayama, Rickie Fowler, and Patrick Fishburn at TPC Twin Cities.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Jul 21, 2025 • 14:07 ET • 4 min read
Kurt Kitayama 3M Open PGA Tour
Photo By - Imagn Images. Kurt Kitayama lines up a putt at the John Deere Classic.

The 2025 PGA Tour season continues to roll along, and the FedExCup Playoffs are closing in ahead of this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.

Kurt Kitayama, Rickie Fowler, and Patrick Fishburn check in down the 3M Open odds list and headline my sleeper and longshot golf picks for this week’s tournament in the North Star State.

3M Open sleeper picks

  • Kitayama to win outright (+4000)
  • Fowler to win outright (+4000)
  • Fishburn to win outright (+6600)

Picks were made on 7-21 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

3M Open sleeper predictions

Sleeper pick to win: Kurt Kitayama
+4000 at DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama is trending in the right direction with a T5 at the John Deere and a T14 at the Barracuda Championship, and I’m eyeing him to play even better this week. 

He finished T6 here at TPC Twin Cities last year while ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth on approach. 

That elite ball-striking has remained intact, too. Kitayama ranks third and fourth in this field in the two metrics across his past seven events dating back to a T5 at the Byron Nelson, after all.

Sleeper pick to win: Rickie Fowler
+4000 at FanDuel

It’s been a smooth six-event stretch for Rickie Fowler. He’s gained true strokes across the board to rank 13th in this field in tee-to-green play and fifth in total strokes gained. Of course, he also carded a rock-solid T14 at The Open and a T18 at the John Deere. 

This will be his third trip to TPC Twin Cities, and it’s also been over two years since Fowler’s last win. With his game trending in the right direction and valuable FedEx Cup points up for grabs this week, I expect the good times to continue rolling for Fowler at the 3M Open.

Sleeper pick to win: Patrick Fishburn
+6600 at BetMGM

While Patrick Fishburn couldn’t close with a strong final round at the Barracuda, there's still plenty to like heading back to TPC Twin Cities after finishing T6 last year.

He gained true strokes putting at both the John Deere and ISCO, and he ranked 11th in putting in this event in 2024 while also ranking 15th in true strokes gained tee-to-green. That’s a promising combo for a longshot in a weak field. 

Fishburn has proven capable of contending when the putter heats up, too.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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