Yeah, so just think, all those people betting 30+ units. I'd think that would have some influence on the juice/price. Vegas isn't stupid. They have systems in place to track movement on every single game. I think they'd notice a pattern on the 901 games. Maybe im just a little conspirist, but it seems very possible.
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Yeah, so just think, all those people betting 30+ units. I'd think that would have some influence on the juice/price. Vegas isn't stupid. They have systems in place to track movement on every single game. I think they'd notice a pattern on the 901 games. Maybe im just a little conspirist, but it seems very possible.
Obviously any chase system will work if you chase long enough is whether or not you want to risk 30 units when you to that "d" game
That couldn't be farther from the truth. It's hard enough to find a system that will work for a solid year even at a 6 game chase, but to find one that woks 5 years or more very challenging.
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Quote Originally Posted by Spartyparty81:
Obviously any chase system will work if you chase long enough is whether or not you want to risk 30 units when you to that "d" game
That couldn't be farther from the truth. It's hard enough to find a system that will work for a solid year even at a 6 game chase, but to find one that woks 5 years or more very challenging.
What I mean is, you can keep betting more and more to recover your previous losses. Eventually you're going to win, it's just how long you can hang in there for before your bank toll is depleted. I like your system so far for sure, I just have to adjust my unit size. I'm thinking this is probably the worst it can get (juice wise). I appreciate your reply.
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What I mean is, you can keep betting more and more to recover your previous losses. Eventually you're going to win, it's just how long you can hang in there for before your bank toll is depleted. I like your system so far for sure, I just have to adjust my unit size. I'm thinking this is probably the worst it can get (juice wise). I appreciate your reply.
ok for those who don't have enough money to chase 5 games, I recommend you guys to wait until C games come out and then chase the rest of following games with increasing up the money to bet. In this case, it becomes 3 game chase, and you will still have 17 wins by the last year's record. Since you increase up the amount of money for 1 unit, ironically you will earn more profits than those who chase all the games for entire season. For example, if a guy bets 10$ for 5 chase game, his profit will be 113 * 10(1130). if a guy bets 300$ for 3 chase game, he will earn 300*17(5100).
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ok for those who don't have enough money to chase 5 games, I recommend you guys to wait until C games come out and then chase the rest of following games with increasing up the money to bet. In this case, it becomes 3 game chase, and you will still have 17 wins by the last year's record. Since you increase up the amount of money for 1 unit, ironically you will earn more profits than those who chase all the games for entire season. For example, if a guy bets 10$ for 5 chase game, his profit will be 113 * 10(1130). if a guy bets 300$ for 3 chase game, he will earn 300*17(5100).
Not sure if you know this, but Vegas makes all that money by factoring in public perception and adjusting the line based on the amt of money coming in. If a lot of us are putting money on the first game they cap, don't you think they adjust? It's just weird how you have some bad teams as the 901 or 951 games lately at a - 190 or higher price for 1.5 runs
I completely agree with you about the public perception part, which is why pitchers Koehler, and Cashner were only considered slight underdogs in those games. They both started the season with great pitching stats, better than their pitching counterparts for those games. Since they were only slight ML underdogs is one reason their RL odds were so high, which are further inflated because they are the visiting team. Remember, comparable visiting RL+1.5 lines are always higher (compared to if they were the home RL +1.5 team), because their opponent, the home RL -1.5, gets higher dog value since they may not get to bat in the bottom of the 9th if they have already won by 1 run. Higher dog value for RL -1.5 means more juice layed by the RL +1.5 team.
These scenarios were all met by the Padres and Marlins in the previous 2 games, which I believe is why the juice was so high.
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Quote Originally Posted by Spartyparty81:
Not sure if you know this, but Vegas makes all that money by factoring in public perception and adjusting the line based on the amt of money coming in. If a lot of us are putting money on the first game they cap, don't you think they adjust? It's just weird how you have some bad teams as the 901 or 951 games lately at a - 190 or higher price for 1.5 runs
I completely agree with you about the public perception part, which is why pitchers Koehler, and Cashner were only considered slight underdogs in those games. They both started the season with great pitching stats, better than their pitching counterparts for those games. Since they were only slight ML underdogs is one reason their RL odds were so high, which are further inflated because they are the visiting team. Remember, comparable visiting RL+1.5 lines are always higher (compared to if they were the home RL +1.5 team), because their opponent, the home RL -1.5, gets higher dog value since they may not get to bat in the bottom of the 9th if they have already won by 1 run. Higher dog value for RL -1.5 means more juice layed by the RL +1.5 team.
These scenarios were all met by the Padres and Marlins in the previous 2 games, which I believe is why the juice was so high.
Thanks for explaining that grunk. Very good points. I think we've just had the perfect storm so far as far as what could go wrong, went wrong. I passed on putting 48 units or whatever it is on this d game play cause its a ton of money. I put some on it though. Good luck to everyone, especially the ones who did.
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Thanks for explaining that grunk. Very good points. I think we've just had the perfect storm so far as far as what could go wrong, went wrong. I passed on putting 48 units or whatever it is on this d game play cause its a ton of money. I put some on it though. Good luck to everyone, especially the ones who did.
Do y'all really think that the only people playing the game that we're playing are the people on Covers?? Get real dude, Vegas doesn't give 2 sh!ts what we do on Covers. I assure you that they're not basing the rotation on Hats system.
We're aren't that important, I promise. Plus, it's only May....
Thanks for the conspiracy theory though. It was a good Confederate Memorial Day laugh.
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Do y'all really think that the only people playing the game that we're playing are the people on Covers?? Get real dude, Vegas doesn't give 2 sh!ts what we do on Covers. I assure you that they're not basing the rotation on Hats system.
We're aren't that important, I promise. Plus, it's only May....
Thanks for the conspiracy theory though. It was a good Confederate Memorial Day laugh.
Do y'all really think that the only people playing the game that we're playing are the people on Covers?? Get real dude, Vegas doesn't give 2 sh!ts what we do on Covers. I assure you that they're not basing the rotation on Hats system.
We're aren't that important, I promise. Plus, it's only May....
Thanks for the conspiracy theory though. It was a good Confederate Memorial Day laugh.
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Do y'all really think that the only people playing the game that we're playing are the people on Covers?? Get real dude, Vegas doesn't give 2 sh!ts what we do on Covers. I assure you that they're not basing the rotation on Hats system.
We're aren't that important, I promise. Plus, it's only May....
Thanks for the conspiracy theory though. It was a good Confederate Memorial Day laugh.
ONE LAST THING, HAT EXPLAINED IN POST #1 THAT THIS WAS A 5 (FIVE) GAME CHASE SYSTEM!! SO IF YOU WAGERED TOO MUCH ON PLAY 1, THEN 2, ETC. YOU SHOULD PROBABLY KICK YOURSELF.
I read this today on KeyElements thread. I love the way he put this. He is talking about his plays, NOT this system!
"Notice: As stated before the first pick I have stuck with a flat $200.00 wager through the first four weeks of the season. There is now an established pattern and track record for most of what I will be using and it is only wise to reinvest earned income. The standard play will still be 2% of bankroll, but the bankroll itself is now much more substantial than at the start of the season. Never forget, most gamblers beat themselves and the quickest way to the poor house is to start doubling and tripling your bets because you are a genius and view the whole project as a get rich quick scheme as opposed to something that should be viewed as a growing business. Education, talent, skill, and discipline. Exactly the same things that provide you, at your job, with the ability to earn disposable income for gambling." - KeyElement
Greed will kill your roll and if you play in your means on this system, you will win a ton of units by seasons end!
ACT YOUR WAGE!!
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ONE LAST THING, HAT EXPLAINED IN POST #1 THAT THIS WAS A 5 (FIVE) GAME CHASE SYSTEM!! SO IF YOU WAGERED TOO MUCH ON PLAY 1, THEN 2, ETC. YOU SHOULD PROBABLY KICK YOURSELF.
I read this today on KeyElements thread. I love the way he put this. He is talking about his plays, NOT this system!
"Notice: As stated before the first pick I have stuck with a flat $200.00 wager through the first four weeks of the season. There is now an established pattern and track record for most of what I will be using and it is only wise to reinvest earned income. The standard play will still be 2% of bankroll, but the bankroll itself is now much more substantial than at the start of the season. Never forget, most gamblers beat themselves and the quickest way to the poor house is to start doubling and tripling your bets because you are a genius and view the whole project as a get rich quick scheme as opposed to something that should be viewed as a growing business. Education, talent, skill, and discipline. Exactly the same things that provide you, at your job, with the ability to earn disposable income for gambling." - KeyElement
Greed will kill your roll and if you play in your means on this system, you will win a ton of units by seasons end!
500-0 the hat days, are you that simple minded to think that the only people doing this system are on this thread? I'm sure there is an ass load of followers to his system because of its success. He claims 500-0 or better. Yeah, not too many people follow that. Really dude? Use your head.
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500-0 the hat days, are you that simple minded to think that the only people doing this system are on this thread? I'm sure there is an ass load of followers to his system because of its success. He claims 500-0 or better. Yeah, not too many people follow that. Really dude? Use your head.
ok for those who don't have enough money to chase 5 games, I recommend you guys to wait until C games come out and then chase the rest of following games with increasing up the money to bet. In this case, it becomes 3 game chase, and you will still have 17 wins by the last year's record. Since you increase up the amount of money for 1 unit, ironically you will earn more profits than those who chase all the games for entire season. For example, if a guy bets 10$ for 5 chase game, his profit will be 113 * 10(1130). if a guy bets 300$ for 3 chase game, he will earn 300*17(5100).
good strategy
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Quote Originally Posted by heypkd:
ok for those who don't have enough money to chase 5 games, I recommend you guys to wait until C games come out and then chase the rest of following games with increasing up the money to bet. In this case, it becomes 3 game chase, and you will still have 17 wins by the last year's record. Since you increase up the amount of money for 1 unit, ironically you will earn more profits than those who chase all the games for entire season. For example, if a guy bets 10$ for 5 chase game, his profit will be 113 * 10(1130). if a guy bets 300$ for 3 chase game, he will earn 300*17(5100).
I actually like tonight's D game. Mets have been hot lately. They're facing a team that is coming off a long road trip. I've heard that is good to fade teams in that situation. It's worked well so far for me so far this year.
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I actually like tonight's D game. Mets have been hot lately. They're facing a team that is coming off a long road trip. I've heard that is good to fade teams in that situation. It's worked well so far for me so far this year.
I really like the Mets tonight! Both have won 6 of 8 , but I think NYM are coming together as a ball club. They were 6-3 on there last road trip, giving the Braves, Angels, and Diamondbacks a run for their money. Philly didn't look to shabby either but I don't think Hamels is the Hamels of old.
I think I'll take the D play and a little side on ML +133.
BOL fellas!
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I really like the Mets tonight! Both have won 6 of 8 , but I think NYM are coming together as a ball club. They were 6-3 on there last road trip, giving the Braves, Angels, and Diamondbacks a run for their money. Philly didn't look to shabby either but I don't think Hamels is the Hamels of old.
I think I'll take the D play and a little side on ML +133.
to the repost Bama!
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