I'm definitely lowering my unit. I was at$10 and am not comfortable throwing $300 on a (d) game today. Guess I didn't think I'd have to wager that much. $5 units it is.
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I'm definitely lowering my unit. I was at$10 and am not comfortable throwing $300 on a (d) game today. Guess I didn't think I'd have to wager that much. $5 units it is.
I think Vegas caught onto your system bud. They're putting crappy teams at the top and putting insane juice on the RL. -190 today and over - 200 the last couple days. San Diego twice, then Miami on the road and now the Cubs :)
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I think Vegas caught onto your system bud. They're putting crappy teams at the top and putting insane juice on the RL. -190 today and over - 200 the last couple days. San Diego twice, then Miami on the road and now the Cubs :)
The one thing I like about the match tonight is that the reds are coming home, first game after a long road trip. Good angle here for the away team. Cubs
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The one thing I like about the match tonight is that the reds are coming home, first game after a long road trip. Good angle here for the away team. Cubs
The one thing I like about the match tonight is that the reds are coming home, first game after a long road trip. Good angle here for the away team. Cubs
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Quote Originally Posted by Spartyparty81:
The one thing I like about the match tonight is that the reds are coming home, first game after a long road trip. Good angle here for the away team. Cubs
I'm not a big chase guy, but I'm laughing at the guys saying 'vegas has caught on'...really? Somewhere in their billion dollar casino penthouses these 'guys' are looking at covers' posters and shaking in their expensive loafers? Geez, you guys need to act like you've done this before if you're going to chase..
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I'm not a big chase guy, but I'm laughing at the guys saying 'vegas has caught on'...really? Somewhere in their billion dollar casino penthouses these 'guys' are looking at covers' posters and shaking in their expensive loafers? Geez, you guys need to act like you've done this before if you're going to chase..
For a 5 game chase your unit size should be around 0.5%
To follow this type of chase in order to gain the 1-unit per chase sequence, Bart_ is exactly on target with this estimation. Consider the current chase sequence (that started on 4/25) for a $10/unit bettor, meaning a bankroll of $2000:
A. (-135 odds) lay $13.50 to win $10 Loss, in the hole $13.50. B. (-230 odds) lay $54.00 to win $23.50 L, in the hole $67.50. C. (-225 odds) lay $174.40 to win $77.50 L, in the hole $241.90. D. (-195 odds) lay $491.20 to win $251.90 **today's wager**
If this sequence was to go to an (E) game, let's say tomorrow's odds for the RL +1.5 was the average, about -165 odds. This would mean you would need to wager:
E. (-165 odds) lay $1226 to win $743
$1226 (amount you need to wager) + $733 (amount lost during A - D games) ----------------------- = $1959 (from your $2000 bankroll)
Again, this is based on following a chase sequence in its most basic, classic sense, which gains 1 unit per sequence.
Previous posters have posted different amounts of money....These amounts above are correct! Like Jeff, I've been betting various chase systems for years. Long periods of success, with an occasional bomb (for me anyway).
Another previous post wondered if Vegas is messing with the rotation? Absolutely not, the rotation is based on: NL first, with earliest game time given precedence. The RL+ odds are historically consistent, which are basically based on a formula that considers underdog ML and whether that team is a visitor or home team.
Incidentally, for those that are curious, I've followed the RL results for each rotation # this system (rotations 1 through 16). This, of course, has been inspired by Jeff's following of rotation #1. Here are some tidbits:
ROT #1 started the season on a W8 streak. ROT #7 has had a W10 streak. ROT #4 has had an L6 streak. ROT #13 has had an L6 streak. ROT #8 is 21-5, the best record of all 16 rotations.
There have been 373 games, with the RL+1.5 record being 233-140, which is 62.5%.
GL to all. (D) and (E) games are not for the faint-of-heart.... And remember Bart_'s bankroll guideline!
0
[Quote: Originally Posted by Bart_]
For a 5 game chase your unit size should be around 0.5%
To follow this type of chase in order to gain the 1-unit per chase sequence, Bart_ is exactly on target with this estimation. Consider the current chase sequence (that started on 4/25) for a $10/unit bettor, meaning a bankroll of $2000:
A. (-135 odds) lay $13.50 to win $10 Loss, in the hole $13.50. B. (-230 odds) lay $54.00 to win $23.50 L, in the hole $67.50. C. (-225 odds) lay $174.40 to win $77.50 L, in the hole $241.90. D. (-195 odds) lay $491.20 to win $251.90 **today's wager**
If this sequence was to go to an (E) game, let's say tomorrow's odds for the RL +1.5 was the average, about -165 odds. This would mean you would need to wager:
E. (-165 odds) lay $1226 to win $743
$1226 (amount you need to wager) + $733 (amount lost during A - D games) ----------------------- = $1959 (from your $2000 bankroll)
Again, this is based on following a chase sequence in its most basic, classic sense, which gains 1 unit per sequence.
Previous posters have posted different amounts of money....These amounts above are correct! Like Jeff, I've been betting various chase systems for years. Long periods of success, with an occasional bomb (for me anyway).
Another previous post wondered if Vegas is messing with the rotation? Absolutely not, the rotation is based on: NL first, with earliest game time given precedence. The RL+ odds are historically consistent, which are basically based on a formula that considers underdog ML and whether that team is a visitor or home team.
Incidentally, for those that are curious, I've followed the RL results for each rotation # this system (rotations 1 through 16). This, of course, has been inspired by Jeff's following of rotation #1. Here are some tidbits:
ROT #1 started the season on a W8 streak. ROT #7 has had a W10 streak. ROT #4 has had an L6 streak. ROT #13 has had an L6 streak. ROT #8 is 21-5, the best record of all 16 rotations.
There have been 373 games, with the RL+1.5 record being 233-140, which is 62.5%.
GL to all. (D) and (E) games are not for the faint-of-heart.... And remember Bart_'s bankroll guideline!
For a 5 game chase your unit size should be around 0.5%
To follow this type of chase in order to gain the 1-unit per chase sequence, Bart_ is exactly on target with this estimation. Consider the current chase sequence (that started on 4/25) for a $10/unit bettor, meaning a bankroll of $2000:
A. (-135 odds) lay $13.50 to win $10 Loss, in the hole $13.50. B. (-230 odds) lay $54.00 to win $23.50 L, in the hole $67.50. C. (-225 odds) lay $174.40 to win $77.50 L, in the hole $241.90. D. (-195 odds) lay $491.20 to win $251.90 **today's wager**
If this sequence was to go to an (E) game, let's say tomorrow's odds for the RL +1.5 was the average, about -165 odds. This would mean you would need to wager:
E. (-165 odds) lay $1226 to win $743
$1226 (amount you need to wager) + $733 (amount lost during A - D games) ----------------------- = $1959 (from your $2000 bankroll)
Again, this is based on following a chase sequence in its most basic, classic sense, which gains 1 unit per sequence.
Previous posters have posted different amounts of money....These amounts above are correct! Like Jeff, I've been betting various chase systems for years. Long periods of success, with an occasional bomb (for me anyway).
Another previous post wondered if Vegas is messing with the rotation? Absolutely not, the rotation is based on: NL first, with earliest game time given precedence. The RL+ odds are historically consistent, which are basically based on a formula that considers underdog ML and whether that team is a visitor or home team.
Incidentally, for those that are curious, I've followed the RL results for each rotation # this system (rotations 1 through 16). This, of course, has been inspired by Jeff's following of rotation #1. Here are some tidbits:
ROT #1 started the season on a W8 streak. ROT #7 has had a W10 streak. ROT #4 has had an L6 streak. ROT #13 has had an L6 streak. ROT #8 is 21-5, the best record of all 16 rotations.
There have been 373 games, with the RL+1.5 record being 233-140, which is 62.5%.
GL to all. (D) and (E) games are not for the faint-of-heart.... And remember Bart_'s bankroll guideline!
WHAT IS ROTATION 8 FOR TODAY?
0
Quote Originally Posted by grunk64:
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:
For a 5 game chase your unit size should be around 0.5%
To follow this type of chase in order to gain the 1-unit per chase sequence, Bart_ is exactly on target with this estimation. Consider the current chase sequence (that started on 4/25) for a $10/unit bettor, meaning a bankroll of $2000:
A. (-135 odds) lay $13.50 to win $10 Loss, in the hole $13.50. B. (-230 odds) lay $54.00 to win $23.50 L, in the hole $67.50. C. (-225 odds) lay $174.40 to win $77.50 L, in the hole $241.90. D. (-195 odds) lay $491.20 to win $251.90 **today's wager**
If this sequence was to go to an (E) game, let's say tomorrow's odds for the RL +1.5 was the average, about -165 odds. This would mean you would need to wager:
E. (-165 odds) lay $1226 to win $743
$1226 (amount you need to wager) + $733 (amount lost during A - D games) ----------------------- = $1959 (from your $2000 bankroll)
Again, this is based on following a chase sequence in its most basic, classic sense, which gains 1 unit per sequence.
Previous posters have posted different amounts of money....These amounts above are correct! Like Jeff, I've been betting various chase systems for years. Long periods of success, with an occasional bomb (for me anyway).
Another previous post wondered if Vegas is messing with the rotation? Absolutely not, the rotation is based on: NL first, with earliest game time given precedence. The RL+ odds are historically consistent, which are basically based on a formula that considers underdog ML and whether that team is a visitor or home team.
Incidentally, for those that are curious, I've followed the RL results for each rotation # this system (rotations 1 through 16). This, of course, has been inspired by Jeff's following of rotation #1. Here are some tidbits:
ROT #1 started the season on a W8 streak. ROT #7 has had a W10 streak. ROT #4 has had an L6 streak. ROT #13 has had an L6 streak. ROT #8 is 21-5, the best record of all 16 rotations.
There have been 373 games, with the RL+1.5 record being 233-140, which is 62.5%.
GL to all. (D) and (E) games are not for the faint-of-heart.... And remember Bart_'s bankroll guideline!
For a 5 game chase your unit size should be around 0.5%
To follow this type of chase in order to gain the 1-unit per chase sequence, Bart_ is exactly on target with this estimation. Consider the current chase sequence (that started on 4/25) for a $10/unit bettor, meaning a bankroll of $2000:
A. (-135 odds) lay $13.50 to win $10 Loss, in the hole $13.50. B. (-230 odds) lay $54.00 to win $23.50 L, in the hole $67.50. C. (-225 odds) lay $174.40 to win $77.50 L, in the hole $241.90. D. (-195 odds) lay $491.20 to win $251.90 **today's wager**
If this sequence was to go to an (E) game, let's say tomorrow's odds for the RL +1.5 was the average, about -165 odds. This would mean you would need to wager:
E. (-165 odds) lay $1226 to win $743
$1226 (amount you need to wager) + $733 (amount lost during A - D games) ----------------------- = $1959 (from your $2000 bankroll)
Again, this is based on following a chase sequence in its most basic, classic sense, which gains 1 unit per sequence.
Previous posters have posted different amounts of money....These amounts above are correct! Like Jeff, I've been betting various chase systems for years. Long periods of success, with an occasional bomb (for me anyway).
Another previous post wondered if Vegas is messing with the rotation? Absolutely not, the rotation is based on: NL first, with earliest game time given precedence. The RL+ odds are historically consistent, which are basically based on a formula that considers underdog ML and whether that team is a visitor or home team.
Incidentally, for those that are curious, I've followed the RL results for each rotation # this system (rotations 1 through 16). This, of course, has been inspired by Jeff's following of rotation #1. Here are some tidbits:
ROT #1 started the season on a W8 streak. ROT #7 has had a W10 streak. ROT #4 has had an L6 streak. ROT #13 has had an L6 streak. ROT #8 is 21-5, the best record of all 16 rotations.
There have been 373 games, with the RL+1.5 record being 233-140, which is 62.5%.
GL to all. (D) and (E) games are not for the faint-of-heart.... And remember Bart_'s bankroll guideline!
Very nice work Grunk. Bettors that chase the loss blindly, always seem surprised when game (D), (E), & {Heaven forbid} (F) appear. It's easy to bet (A) & (B). Any of us can do that.... BUT (F), that's another level of gambling. GL Guys, Beat The Book. Out
0
Quote Originally Posted by grunk64:
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:
For a 5 game chase your unit size should be around 0.5%
To follow this type of chase in order to gain the 1-unit per chase sequence, Bart_ is exactly on target with this estimation. Consider the current chase sequence (that started on 4/25) for a $10/unit bettor, meaning a bankroll of $2000:
A. (-135 odds) lay $13.50 to win $10 Loss, in the hole $13.50. B. (-230 odds) lay $54.00 to win $23.50 L, in the hole $67.50. C. (-225 odds) lay $174.40 to win $77.50 L, in the hole $241.90. D. (-195 odds) lay $491.20 to win $251.90 **today's wager**
If this sequence was to go to an (E) game, let's say tomorrow's odds for the RL +1.5 was the average, about -165 odds. This would mean you would need to wager:
E. (-165 odds) lay $1226 to win $743
$1226 (amount you need to wager) + $733 (amount lost during A - D games) ----------------------- = $1959 (from your $2000 bankroll)
Again, this is based on following a chase sequence in its most basic, classic sense, which gains 1 unit per sequence.
Previous posters have posted different amounts of money....These amounts above are correct! Like Jeff, I've been betting various chase systems for years. Long periods of success, with an occasional bomb (for me anyway).
Another previous post wondered if Vegas is messing with the rotation? Absolutely not, the rotation is based on: NL first, with earliest game time given precedence. The RL+ odds are historically consistent, which are basically based on a formula that considers underdog ML and whether that team is a visitor or home team.
Incidentally, for those that are curious, I've followed the RL results for each rotation # this system (rotations 1 through 16). This, of course, has been inspired by Jeff's following of rotation #1. Here are some tidbits:
ROT #1 started the season on a W8 streak. ROT #7 has had a W10 streak. ROT #4 has had an L6 streak. ROT #13 has had an L6 streak. ROT #8 is 21-5, the best record of all 16 rotations.
There have been 373 games, with the RL+1.5 record being 233-140, which is 62.5%.
GL to all. (D) and (E) games are not for the faint-of-heart.... And remember Bart_'s bankroll guideline!
Very nice work Grunk. Bettors that chase the loss blindly, always seem surprised when game (D), (E), & {Heaven forbid} (F) appear. It's easy to bet (A) & (B). Any of us can do that.... BUT (F), that's another level of gambling. GL Guys, Beat The Book. Out
I UNDERSTAND ROTATION ONE on 901 or 951 but whats rotations 8?
Rotation #8 is the 8th team listed on the daily schedule. Today there are only 7 games, thus only rotations #1 through #7. On a typical day in MLB, there are 15 games listed on a schedule, so rotations 1-15. The reason there have been some ROT #16, is because of an added makeup game.
A real easy site to use for determining rotation # is scoresandodds.com. Just count down to get your rotation #.
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Quote Originally Posted by alabamam25:
I UNDERSTAND ROTATION ONE on 901 or 951 but whats rotations 8?
Rotation #8 is the 8th team listed on the daily schedule. Today there are only 7 games, thus only rotations #1 through #7. On a typical day in MLB, there are 15 games listed on a schedule, so rotations 1-15. The reason there have been some ROT #16, is because of an added makeup game.
A real easy site to use for determining rotation # is scoresandodds.com. Just count down to get your rotation #.
Not sure if you know this, but Vegas makes all that money by factoring in public perception and adjusting the line based on the amt of money coming in. If a lot of us are putting money on the first game they cap, don't you think they adjust? It's just weird how you have some bad teams as the 901 or 951 games lately at a - 190 or higher price for 1.5 runs
0
Not sure if you know this, but Vegas makes all that money by factoring in public perception and adjusting the line based on the amt of money coming in. If a lot of us are putting money on the first game they cap, don't you think they adjust? It's just weird how you have some bad teams as the 901 or 951 games lately at a - 190 or higher price for 1.5 runs
Obviously any chase system will work if you chase long enough is whether or not you want to risk 30 units when you to that "d" game
...and for today's game, one is actually wagering 49 units to win back the 24 units lost during the chase up to this point, plus win the 1-unit for the entire sequence.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Spartyparty81:
Obviously any chase system will work if you chase long enough is whether or not you want to risk 30 units when you to that "d" game
...and for today's game, one is actually wagering 49 units to win back the 24 units lost during the chase up to this point, plus win the 1-unit for the entire sequence.
Out
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