🐳 Quiet Whale | MLB Syndicate Tracker | Premium Plays

@Quiet_Whale

 Math bro

G.L

Correction / Transparency Update

Good catch by the community. After auditing, I found the spreadsheets got tangled one recap had a personal play mixed in and another was tallied as “to win” instead of “risk.” When I cross-checked against my secondary ledger, the mistake showed up.

Ledger is now fully corrected:

YTD: 6–4 (+0.12u)

Audits like this are part of the process, transparency is the whole point. The goal isn’t to look perfect, it’s to stay accountable, disciplined, and sharp. Errors get caught, corrected, and we move forward tighter than before.

Eyes on the next edge.

Quiet Whale – Aug 30
YTD: 6–4 (+0.12u)

Play: Milwaukee Brewers ML +125 (2u)
Cutoff: Play only at +120 or better.

Rationale:
Quinn Priester (11–2, 3.44 ERA) starts for Milwaukee against Kevin Gausman (8–10, 3.87 ERA). Priester has been steady, while Gausman’s results have slipped compared to prior seasons.

The Brewers’ bullpen is deeper even with Trevor Megill on the IL, as Abner Uribe takes over late-inning duties. Toronto’s relief corps is thinner with Yimi García sidelined for the year.

Market handle outpaces bet count (+28% diff), confirming sharper money on Milwaukee. Circa shaded Toronto lower while retail books pushed higher, creating value on the dog.

@Quiet_Whale

Result: Brewers ML +125 (Win)
Final: Brewers 4, Blue Jays 1

Day: 1–0 (+2.50u)
MLB YTD Record: 7–4 (+2.62u)

Milwaukee cashed as a live dog at +125, with the position supported by both market shading and handle confirmation. The setup was there and the game result followed through.

Ledger stays transparent, every position logged, win or lose.

Eyes on the next opportunity.

Quiet Whale – Sept 1
YTD: 7–4 (+2.62u)

Play: Oakland Athletics ML +122 (1.5u)
Cutoff: Play only at +120 or better

Rationale:
Sonny Gray goes for St. Louis against Oakland’s rookie lefty Luis Morales. The edge lies less in starting pitching and more in context. St. Louis is without Arenado and Donovan, taking two key bats out of their lineup. Oakland’s lineup is confirmed and intact outside of Kurtz, and the bullpen enters fresher.

The market has shown resistance: despite St. Louis taking the majority of tickets and handle, Circa shaded Cardinals lower while retail books pushed higher. That divergence confirms sharper interest on Oakland.

Neutral weather and a balanced ump assignment support the play. With market resistance, lineup context, and a healthy bullpen edge, Oakland qualifies as a syndicate fire.

@Quiet_Whale

BOL to you today!  

GL  on your play @Quiet_Whale 

A’s!!!

Quiet Whale – Sept 1 Recap

Result: Athletics +122 (Win)
Final: A’s 11 – Cardinals 3
Day: 1–0 (+1.83u)
MLB YTD Record: 8–4 (+4.45u)

Market Recap:
We locked the Athletics at +122 (1.5u). Circa closed at +137, meaning we lost 15¢ CLV. The move was triggered by a late lineup scratch (Nick Kurtz out) combined with steady Cardinals money. There was some late buyback on Oakland, but not enough to close the gap.

Game Flow Verification:
Edge we identified was St. Louis missing Arenado and Donovan plus a fresher Oakland bullpen. Game script matched, Gray kept it tight early, but Oakland’s bats pulled away and the pen slammed the door.

Takeaway:
Result followed the reasoning. CLV entry was poor, but process identified the right side and the game validated the analysis. Transparent logging continues, both market story and scoreboard included.

Eyes on the next opportunity.

Quiet Whale – Sept 2
YTD: 8–4 (+4.45u)

Play: Twins ML –144 (2.5u)
Cutoff: –150

Rationale:
Minnesota rolls out a lefty-heavy lineup (Buxton, Wallner, Larnach) against Davis Martin. Chicago’s order is thin, and their bullpen enters gassed while the Twins pen is rested. Neutral weather and Adam Beck on the plate (balanced zone) support the chalk. Minnesota qualifies as a syndicate fire.

Play: Astros/Yankees F5 Under 4.5 –152 (2.5u)
Cutoff: –160

Rationale:
Ramon De Jesus, one of the stronger under-lean umpires, has the plate. Both Fried and Valdez are heavy ground-ball lefties in a dome environment. With no weather factor and market shading under all day, F5 Under 4.5 is the derivative edge.

Play: Astros ML +108 (1u)
Cutoff: +105

Rationale:
Despite 68% of tickets on New York, the line froze at Yankees –124. Houston is pulling 52% of the money on just 32% of bets, confirming sharper backing. With their lineup intact and the market refusing to budge, Houston qualifies for trimmed exposure as a live dog.

@Quiet_Whale

I haven't bet baseball for a month big favorites kept killing my two team ml parlays so I said screw it till Cfb. I had a couple good opening weekends in  football so I figured wth Il play a two teamer.  So I saw this post and a few others on Minnesota so switched from the Red Sox. The White Sox didn't just beat them they crushed them. This is why I said fuck baseball. 

Great efforts and write ups! You'll bounce back tomorrow. 

Quiet Whale – Sept 2 Recap

Results: Twins –144 (Loss), Astros/Yankees F5 Under 4.5 –152 (Loss), Astros +108 (Loss)
Finals: Twins 3–12, Astros 1–7 (6–0 F5)
Day: 0–3 (–6.0u)
MLB YTD Record: 8–7 (–1.55u)

Market Recap:
All three positions were supported by the market, Minnesota closed steady chalk, Houston drew a bigger money share than bets, and the total shaded under with De Jesús on the plate. Those are the kinds of signals we want to be aligned with long term, even if they didn’t convert last night.

Game Flow Verification:
Minnesota collapsed early and never looked competitive. In Houston, the F5 Under cracked in the top of the 2nd when the Yankees pushed across two runs, then unraveled for good in the 5th on a grand slam that made it 6–0. That inning effectively killed both the side and total, as Houston never mounted any offense the rest of the way.

Takeaway:
0–3 card, logged without spin. Public record now 8–7 (–1.55u). Nights like this sting, but the defense is the system itself, aligning with sharp money, market movement, and ump/pitching edges. Over time, that edge wins. Bankroll management remains key; even with a negative night, the roll stays healthy and the syndicate moves forward disciplined.

@Quiet_Whale

 get it all back with the O's +1.5 

Quiet Whale – Sept 3
MLB YTD Record: 8–7 (–1.55u)

Play: Baltimore Orioles ML +158 (1.5u)
Cutoff: Play only at +145 or better

Rationale:
The Padres are listed at -186, but my Atlas Line makes them -125 — over 60¢ of inflation driven by public demand (94% of money on San Diego).

Baltimore enters with a full lineup (Holliday, Mountcastle, Cowser, Mayo all in) and a fresher bullpen. San Diego’s late-inning arms have been taxed, with both closer and setup used back-to-back. Umpire Emil Jimenez trends over-friendly (8.8 R/G, 17.5 K/G), a boost to the underdog’s power profile. Weather is neutral-to-positive with wind out to center.

With market inflation, bullpen context, lineup confirmation, and umpire support, the Orioles qualify as a top syndicate dog.

@Quiet_Whale

Quiet Whale – Sept 3

MLB YTD Record: 8–7 (–1.55u)

Play 1: Cleveland Guardians ML +132 (1.5u)

Cutoff: Play only at +125 or better

Rationale:

Boston is priced at -157 while my Atlas Line makes this game -115. That’s 40¢ of inflation.

Cleveland’s lineup is intact with Steven Kwan, José Ramírez, and Josh Naylor leading the order. Their bullpen is rested, while Boston’s late-inning arms have been leaned on over the past two days. With 83% of the public on the Red Sox, this sets up as a classic fade-the-public dog.

Market inflation + bullpen edge + lineup confirmation = Guardians fire.

Play 2: Tampa Bay Rays ML +122 (1.5u)

Cutoff: Play only at +120 or better

Rationale:

Seattle is priced at -140 while my Atlas Line makes this game a pick’em (-105 each way). That’s 35¢ of inflation on the Mariners.

Tampa Bay’s lineup is intact with Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, and Randy Arozarena anchoring. Their bullpen is fresher than Seattle’s, which was leaned on over the weekend. With the dome closed, environment is neutral.

Inflated line on Seattle + bullpen advantage + lineup confirmation = Rays value.

@Quiet_Whale

 Arozarena is on the Mariners 

@Jhizzle13

You are correct, Arozarena reference in the Rays note was a mental slip while typing. I go through a massive amount of data every day, and every once in a while a detail can slip in. He was traded last season, and I shouldn’t have listed him. Apologies, I’m only human.

That said, the handicap has nothing to do with one player. Seattle is lined -140 while my fair number makes it a pick’em. Tampa’s bullpen is fresher, dome closed, neutral environment.

Official Play remains: Tampa Bay Rays ML +122 (1.5u)

Cutoff: +120 or better

@Quiet_Whale

 Tampa Bay isn’t playing in a dome this year, they’re playing at George Steinbrenner stadium