🐳 Quiet Whale | MLB Syndicate Tracker | Premium Plays

Wingit, any1 on here killing ittttthat u noticed.

@finsterbaby

 I normally follow BC and Jay but they aren’t streaking anymore which is normal for anyone in this sport.  So I’m def not complaining. I’m monitoring right now until they go back on the heater. They still got me a lot of units to sustain losses. I look for cappers like Bc and Qwhale that provides good info with the picks. 

Liking TWINS @t 105pm

Twinscashem not trashem

Quiet Whale – Back from Italy

Back in the saddle after a couple of weeks away. Trip was a great reset - food, family, and plenty of walking through Sicily, Puglia region and Naples. Now it’s time to get back to work.

The plan hasn’t changed:

MLB remains the daily grind where we find edges and track the long season honestly.

College Football and NFL are here now, and we’ll be running a combined football thread to attack the weekend cards.

NBA, NHL, and College Hoops will join in due time, but we’re focused on what’s in front of us.

Everything is driven by data, line movement, and disciplined bankroll management. We’ll post plays with unit size, cutoffs, and clear rationale so the record stays transparent. The year is long, good days and bad days come, but the edge wins out over volume and variance.

YTD MLB: 4–3 (+1.09u)

Today’s MLB card will follow in the next post.

Good to be back, let’s grind.

Quiet Whale – Aug 28 (MLB)

YTD Record: 4–3 (+1.09u)

Play 1: Philadelphia Phillies F5 –0.5 –144 (2u)

Cutoff: –150 or better.

Rationale:

Aaron Nola takes the mound against Cal Quantrill in a mismatch of strikeout ability versus pitch to contact. Nola’s swing and miss arsenal gives Philadelphia the edge early, while Quantrill’s profile is vulnerable against left-handed power. Atlanta’s lineup remains thinned by the absence of Austin Riley, and their bullpen has been worked heavily over the past week. With Citizens Bank Park conditions slightly boosting power (mid-70s, wind out to RF), the F5 angle isolates Nola’s edge before relief usage can tilt variance.

Play 2: Arizona Diamondbacks ML +145 (1u)

Cutoff: +140 or better.

Rationale:

Nabil Crismatt vs. José Quintana. Market/ticket vs. money divergence pointed us to Arizona as the contrarian side, and Circa’s stance has shown resistance to ballooning Milwaukee further. Crismatt is a swingman/spot start profile, but at this price the dog still grades playable given the market signals.

Play 3: Chicago White Sox ML +165 (1u)

Cutoff: +160 or better.

Rationale:

Davis Martin draws the start for Chicago against Will Warren for New York. While public perception heavily tilts toward the Yankees (85%+ of action), Circa has anchored New York around –190 while retail books stretched to –200/–205, a sign of sharp resistance on the Sox. Martin has been serviceable (sub-4 ERA, better WHIP than Warren), while Warren’s volatility with walks has inflated run prevention risk. Both bullpens enter stretched, adding variance, but the market profile at +165 creates a sharp dog opportunity.

Exposure: 4u total

No speculation, only validated edges with confirmed starters.

@Quiet_Whale

Are these plays to risk units or to win units?

@Premian

All plays are posted as risk units, not to win. So, when we post 1u on a +145 dog, the full 1u is at risk (not adjusted down). Same with favorites, if it’s 2u on –144, the full 2u is at risk at that price.

Keeps everything consistent across sports and makes the ledger easier to track.

@Quiet_Whale

Sounds great, that's the way I prefer to bet too.  Instead of risking 1% to 2%, I generally risk 5%.  I am planning to do just one bet a day though mostly.  Is 5% risk too much?

@Premian

Risk tolerance really comes down to your goals and your bankroll. For me, everything is structured around the idea that this is a long game, variance is real, even on good edges. That’s why I generally recommend 1–2% per play, occasionally 3% on a very strong position.

At 5% per bet, the swings get big fast. Even a short downswing of a few units can put you in a deep hole. That’s fine if someone has the temperament and bankroll to ride it, but from a syndicate perspective, I call it aggressive.

If you’re playing one game a day and want to keep it enjoyable, 5% might work for you. But for professional style tracking and long-term growth, keeping the unit size smaller and consistent is what protects you from variance.

@Quiet_Whale

Thanks for the information.  I am adjusting my bet size to be 5% each day, so that when I win the bet size goes up and vice versa.  I am definitely not a pro yet.  If I turn pro, I will probably decrease the bet size to about 2% or so as you recommend.

@Premian

Appreciate the thoughtful response. The most important thing is consistency with whatever staking plan you choose. That discipline is what separates hobby play from a professional approach. If you ever make the jump toward a pro mindset, keeping risk tighter is what gives you longevity and lets the edge show over time.

@Quiet_Whale

Welcome back & BOL!!

For anyone following along, NFL and College Football plays will be posted in a separate thread in the NFL Forum. That thread will track all football plays (NFL + CFB) under one ledger with the same format we’ve been using here in MLB.

We’ll keep MLB running here daily, and football will have its own home for the season. Anyone wanting to track across sports can follow both.

Transparency, cutoffs, and unit discipline remain the same across all threads.

@Quiet_Whale

 Words of wisdom 

@Quiet_Whale

Result: Diamondbacks ML +145 (Win)

Final: Diamondbacks 6, Brewers 4

Day: 1–0 (+1.45u)

YTD Record: 5–3 (+2.54u)

Arizona cashed as a contrarian dog in a spot where market splits, Circa resistance, and bullpen rest all aligned with our read. The number held value throughout the day, and execution at +145 secured the position.

Consistent, disciplined entries remain the foundation, only betting where price, matchup, and market signals converge.

Eyes forward to the next edge.

@Quiet_Whale

Nice win with the Diamondbacks.  Trying White Sox +174.

 been waiting for your return 

Quiet Whale – Aug 28 Results

Result 1: Diamondbacks ML +145 (Win)

Final: Diamondbacks 6, Brewers 4

Result 2: Phillies F5 –0.5 –144 (Win)

Final: Phillies 19, Braves 4 (led 15–3 after 5)

Result 3: White Sox ML +165 (Loss)

Final: Yankees 10, White Sox 4

Day: 2–1 (+2.33u)

YTD Record: 6–4 (+3.87u)

Both wins came from validated spots: the D’Backs cashed as a contrarian dog with Circa resistance backing the number, while Philadelphia dominated early behind a clear starter edge and favorable market setup. Chicago carried sharp dog indicators but was unable to match New York’s lineup strength.

The focus stays the same, disciplined entries only where market, matchup, and price align.

Eyes forward to today’s card.

@Quiet_Whale

Quiet Whale – Aug 29 (MLB)

MLB YTD Record: 6–4 (+3.87u)

No official MLB investments today.

I ran the morning and midday scans, but nothing on today’s slate cleared the investment filter. A few dogs showed inflation, but without sharp confirmation they don’t qualify. Our approach is simple: we invest in numbers, not teams, and if the market doesn’t give us value, we pass.

Discipline is as important as the wins themselves.

@Quiet_Whale

I’m not sure you won 2.33 units yesterday, going 2-1 on the day yesterday, given that you stated: 

“All plays are posted as risk units, not to win.”  “ if it’s 2u on –144, the full 2u is at risk at that price.”

“Day: 2–1 (+2.33u)”
 

You won 1.39 Units on the Phillies F5 -0.5 at -144 Risking 2 units to win 1.389 units.  

You won 1.45 Units on the Diamondbacks at +145 Risking 1 unit to win 1.45 units. 

You lost 1 unit on the CWS at +165 Risking 1 unit to win 1.65 Units.  

1.39 + 1.45 - 1.00 = +1.84 Units.

Looks like you won 1.84 units yesterday, well done QW!

AS

@ATLSHARP

 Good catch, appreciate you pointing that out. You’re correct, since units are posted as risk, the profit on the Phillies –144 play was +1.39u, not +2u. Yesterday’s card was +1.84u, not +2.33u.

I’ll get the YTD record adjusted so everything stays transparent. Thanks for the sharp eye.