NHL Home Chase

I will figure this out tomorrow.

December 2009
01,03,05,09,11_________SJ      12/1, Lost next 4
02,04,05______________NJ      11/28 and 12/4
03,05,07______________PIT     12/3
03,05,07,09,11_________BUF   12/3 and 12/9
03,05,09______________CLB    12/9
03,05,07______________LA      12/3
03,05,07______________PHO 12/3
05,07,09______________TB      12/5
05,08,10,12____________NSH  12/8
09,11,13,15,19_________COL   12/11 and 12/13
09,11,12,16,18_________NJ      12/9 and 12/12
10,12,14,16,18,20,22,26_VAN 12/10, 12, 14, 18, 22 (5 wins)
12,14,16______________NYR All 3, W 3 road and 1st home
12,14,16______________TOR  12/12
13,16,18,20,22_________CHI   12/13, 16, 18
15,17,19,21____________EDM All 4, 2 road game and 1 home, W next at home (7 game slide)
17,19,21,23____________NYI    12/23
17,19,21_______________PHI  All 3, W 4 straight on road
17,19,21_______________ATL 12/17
17,19,23,27____________CGY 12/17 L next 3
19,21,23,26____________CAR   12/19 L next 3
19,21,23_______________DAL   12/19
21,23,26_______________MIN   12/23
21,23,27_______________PIT     12/23
21,23,26_______________PHO   12/21
23,26,28_______________WAS 12/23
23,26,28,30,1/02________TB       12/26 and 12/28
23,26,30_______________NYR   12/23
26,28,30_______________SJ       12/26
27,31,1/03______________FLA  PL 12/27
27,29,31,1/02___________STL   PL 12/31
28,30,31,1/03,1/05_______OTT  12/28, 31
29,31,1/02______________PHO 12/29
29,31,1/02______________DAL  12/29
30,31,1/02______________CGY 12/30

December chase record 32-3, Since November 1, 58-4
RML chase record since November 1 is 58-5 with two pending
RPL chase record since November 1 is 63-0 with one pending

Three series starting today NYR, NSH, and SJ.
I will get the full schedule posted today.

spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tU1bm-tnxs54EnGibSt7yrQ&output=html

Think I got it figured out.
The link above is a spreadsheet with January's home stands.
I will keep it updated with odds for Home Money Line, Home Puck Line, Road Money Line, and Road PL.
I will list the games in a post like before if this spreadsheet doesn't work out. 

Thank you Smitler

Results of all three systems since season start through Dec 09:
System requirement is 3 or more game home stand.
You decide your own money management style.

Option 1.0:   81-4  Chase home team to win or PL if dog
Option 1.1: 117-7  New chase after win if 3 or more games remain 


Option 2.0:   76-9    Chase road team ML
Option 2.1: 106-14  New chase after win if 3 or more games remain

Option 3.0:   83-1  Chase road team PL
Option 3.1: 127-1  New chase after win if 3 or more games remain

wow option 3.0 and 3.1

Smit,

Option 3 looks good but the juice for the road PL is normally pretty high.  How does that factor into the overall unit wins using your unit system?

 

Smit,

Wanted to also get your thoughts on this system?

Play HT:

If win, play RT as a new series

if lose, stick to the HT series

kaki57 don't know the unit values because I didn't start recording the lines until this month but the average PL line is about -200 maybe -250.
So if to win $1 per win would be $127.
Using -200 that one 3 game chase loss would be -$2 to win $1, -$6 to win $3 and -$18 to win $9. Total worst case scenario would be -$26.
127-26 = 101.

That doesn't sound like a system I would play.  You're still gonna have the 4 or 7 home chase losses then risk the PL if that also covered the 1st game.  More analysis would be required.

Hey Smit,

bn727 That is correct for Option 1.0.
I am playing option 1.1 and 3.1 and so far this month the record is
13-0 and 11-0.  I always take PL if home team is dog.
The RML is also 13-0 but I don't play that unless I can't get RPL.
Yesterday was a busy day with 13 total plays.
Would have been a great day if CHI didn't blow a 4 point 3rd period lead.  Still came out on top though.
The spreadsheet is kinda cluttered, but if you just scroll down by team and across by day of the month you should be ok.
Remember lines in italics are for additional chases after 1st win.
I'm tracking all lines on this spreadsheet so I can better analyze them for future filters.
I don't know if I answered your questions.  If not, post again.

No plays today.

I can email you the spreadsheet if you want.  If so,PM your email address.

hey smit option 3.0 is a very nice option if you eliminate the worst 10 road teams from this option there are no series losses thus far....

Sounds good but it wouldn't have helped since that one RPL chase loss was the first three games of the season for the NYR.

good point

bump

Jan 1 through Jan 14
1.1  24-0
2.1  16-1   MIN won all 4 home games (DET blew 4 goal lead in 3rd)
3.1  13-0.25 1st MIN game RPL loss. Next three RPL not available

I'm starting to see less RPLs as the season progresses.

Jan 1 through Jan 16
1.1  29-1   CGY lost all 3
2.1  17-1   MIN won all 4 home games (DET blew 4 goal lead in 3rd)
3.1  13-0 for series
        2-1 single RPL games where chase was not available

Check out the spread sheet in post #178 for games and results.

Jan 1 through Jan 21
1.1  37-1
2.1  21-3  
3.1  22-0 for series
        2-1 single RPL games where chase was not available

Check out the spread sheet in post #178 for games and results.
I play what's listed in the "JAN Plays" sheet.

Took 4 games  to get that RPL win at PHI.

Jan 1 through Jan 26
1.1  43-2
2.1  23-3  
3.1  25-0 for series
        2-1 single RPL games where chase was not available

No plays Mon 1/25 and Tues 1/26.
Nice break after that stressful 4 gamer on Sunday.

Jan 1 through Jan 29
1.1 45-2
2.1 27-4
3.1 28-0

I may lay off RPL against WAS tomorrow. They are just killing everybody they play.

who to pick on 1-31 ???

I'm not betting against WAS. I will take a 2 game loss.
Should have never started it.