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NBA 2008-09, Week 8 thread...

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Posts: 13

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 5:24 PM ET #1

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-28, -$133
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 177-176-6
#1 picks: 25-24

Totals: 182-168-9
#1 picks: 22-25-2
=====================================

Day 50:

As the busy season is upon me at my place of business, my time will be limited...Almost considered not posting any more this year after a frustrating week and bad day yesterday as my bets went 0-2 despite going 7-2 with my Sides and 5-3-1 with totals...I liked the card a lot yesterday, but decided to stay away from game bets one more day and paid for it...I was really psyched and looking forward to this NBA season after not posting last year and having a solid year with minimal effort...If things don't change in the next few weeks, then I may have to accept the fact that this may be my first losing season ever in the NBA and I have been capping it since 1982-83...Only 2 units down, but it feels like I am 200 units down, quite frankly...Never had a start quite like this one...

I may be forced to cut back some write-ups due to time constraints, but we'll see...

I just checked my database and am a bit surprised that there has never been a C6 vs. a NC6 since the 1991-92 season...Knicks/Lakers match-up tonight has that...Here are examples similar:

NC vs. C8 happened twice and the NC6 covered both times as DOGs that lost by small margins...

C6 vs. NC7 happened twice and the NC7 covered both times, once as a FAV of 6.5 winning by 15 and the other as a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC8, same thing, NC8 a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC9, NC9 covered, a 7.5 DOG that won outright...

6-0 ATS for the team that was on the NC streak...

Fairly rare to have a Cover team vs. a Not Cover team with decent streaks be such a huge DOG...Biggest DOG I could find was a C6 vs. a NC5 and the C6 covered as 10.5 DOGs...

Using NC6 vs. C5 and C6 vs. NC5 was about a coin-flip with about a 16-game sample...

I like the Lakers here, at first blush, but giving that many points, man, I dunno, we'll see...Be back with picks in a bit...

No BETS yet...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

0

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-28, -$133
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 177-176-6
#1 picks: 25-24

Totals: 182-168-9
#1 picks: 22-25-2
=====================================

Day 50:

As the busy season is upon me at my place of business, my time will be limited...Almost considered not posting any more this year after a frustrating week and bad day yesterday as my bets went 0-2 despite going 7-2 with my Sides and 5-3-1 with totals...I liked the card a lot yesterday, but decided to stay away from game bets one more day and paid for it...I was really psyched and looking forward to this NBA season after not posting last year and having a solid year with minimal effort...If things don't change in the next few weeks, then I may have to accept the fact that this may be my first losing season ever in the NBA and I have been capping it since 1982-83...Only 2 units down, but it feels like I am 200 units down, quite frankly...Never had a start quite like this one...

I may be forced to cut back some write-ups due to time constraints, but we'll see...

I just checked my database and am a bit surprised that there has never been a C6 vs. a NC6 since the 1991-92 season...Knicks/Lakers match-up tonight has that...Here are examples similar:

NC vs. C8 happened twice and the NC6 covered both times as DOGs that lost by small margins...

C6 vs. NC7 happened twice and the NC7 covered both times, once as a FAV of 6.5 winning by 15 and the other as a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC8, same thing, NC8 a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC9, NC9 covered, a 7.5 DOG that won outright...

6-0 ATS for the team that was on the NC streak...

Fairly rare to have a Cover team vs. a Not Cover team with decent streaks be such a huge DOG...Biggest DOG I could find was a C6 vs. a NC5 and the C6 covered as 10.5 DOGs...

Using NC6 vs. C5 and C6 vs. NC5 was about a coin-flip with about a 16-game sample...

I like the Lakers here, at first blush, but giving that many points, man, I dunno, we'll see...Be back with picks in a bit...

No BETS yet...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

uatider

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 75

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 6:16 PM ET #2

hey buddy I am with you good luck to us both

0

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 6:45 PM ET #3

Sides:

#1 LAL -13.5
#2 Hou -3
#3 OKC +5
#4 Chi -2.5
#5 Memp +6.5
#6 Sac +12.5

Totals:

#1 Hou un 199
#2 Memp ov 193
#3 Chi un 188
#4 LAL ov 222.5
#5 OKC un 199
#6 Sac ov 199.5

0

jcpsaints

Veteran

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 4837

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 6:56 PM ET #4

0

soxsoxst3phan

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 120

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 7:10 PM ET #5

no 1q post?

0

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 8:28 PM ET #6

Quote Originally Posted by soxsoxst3phan:

no 1q post?

Well, I was what, 7-0 or 8-0 or something close to that on the season before going 1-3 my last four 1Q bets the last 3 days (losing one by a half a point), so I'll lay off the 1Q plays for a spell unless I see a great spot...Still way ahead of the game with 1Q bets this season...

BET:

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Lakers -13.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- Would be a Level 2 play, but I hate laying these kinds of spreads...Talked about this already as teams currently on long cover streaks have a GREAT dal of problems covering teams currently on long Not-Cover streaks and we have a C6 vs. NC6 tonight with the Lakers being in the NC6 spot...Also, the Knicks are ending a 5-game road-trip and have covered the first 4 games...Coming into this season, since 1991-92, that has happened 25 times and the road team is 8-17 ATS in their final Road game of the trip...Now, ORL had this same exact spot last night and Covered, so what are the odds that thi spot can Cover on consecutive nights?...A spot so rare to begin with?...I guess we'll see after tonight...Lake-Show over-"due" to hammer the hell out of someone anyway and if the Knicks don't hit treys tonight, they will get blown out of Staples because I don't see them getting squat in the paint with the giants the Lakers have under the basket...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

0

soxsoxst3phan

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 120

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 11:12 PM ET #7

yo brewer feelin any 2h game?

0

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 16, 2008 - 11:47 PM ET #8

BET:

Level 2 -- Los Angeles Lakers -11, 2H, laying $825 to win $750 -- Would be a Level 3 play, but because the Lakers are down 15 and the 2H lines takes this to a 4-point game loss for a cover instead of putting the "new" game line to a 1 or 2-point win for LAL, it is NOT as strong a play for me, but I just don't see the Lakers losing this game...51% shooting for NY and 36% for LAL meets the criteria (15% difference)...Had LAL been down 9, 10, 11 or 12 points, this would have been a Level 3 play...

0

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58266

Posted: Dec. 17, 2008 - 1:04 PM ET #9

You cannot post links to other sites in your posts and you did this multiple times.

Going forward please keep the rules and omit the links.

0

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 17, 2008 - 1:16 PM ET #10

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

You cannot post links to other sites in your posts and you did this multiple times.

Going forward please keep the rules and omit the links.

Not a problem...

I didn't even realize they were "linked" to another site, it's just where I store my database samples...I run 3 websites and one is an amateur baseball site that has nothing to do with gambling whatsoever...Would it be ok to show database samples from a "nothing-neutral" site like that??...

Let me know...Thanx...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I just bet these, so am posting in case lines move...Picks and updated records later...

BET:

Level 1 -- Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5, laying $250 to win $265 -- Minny has lost 10 in a row and CLE just had an 11-game winning streak end last time out at ATL...CLE has won 19 of their last 20...These 2 injuries to "Z" and Gibson are going to catch up with them...Look-ahead game potentially as Denver is next up...You generally see the effort-level rise for most NBA teams the longer a losing streak goes...Minny got thrashed at SAC last time out and I look for them to give CLE some fight tonight as Kevin McHale is still looking for his first win...No reason why the back-door shouldn't be open late in this one...

Level 1 -- Atlanta Hawks Pick (+149 -- MatchBook), laying $168 to win $250 -- Boston has tied the best start in NBA history and have won 15 in a row...Is Pierce 100%?...Atlanta must have something to prove here and would love to make a statement that what happened at Home last April in the playoffs was no fluke...The Hawks only lost to the Celtics by 1 at BOS early in the season when they were in a bad spot, in the back-end of a back-to-back and BOS was rested...Boston cannot win every game the rest of the way, so this is as good a spot as any to see them lose, as the Hawks are 9-1 at Home...They have established a dominant home-court advantage starting with that playoff series last April...BIG game for the Hawks and I'll take the team that has the motivational edge every time...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

0

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

You cannot post links to other sites in your posts and you did this multiple times.

Going forward please keep the rules and omit the links.

Not a problem...

I didn't even realize they were "linked" to another site, it's just where I store my database samples...I run 3 websites and one is an amateur baseball site that has nothing to do with gambling whatsoever...Would it be ok to show database samples from a "nothing-neutral" site like that??...

Let me know...Thanx...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I just bet these, so am posting in case lines move...Picks and updated records later...

BET:

Level 1 -- Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5, laying $250 to win $265 -- Minny has lost 10 in a row and CLE just had an 11-game winning streak end last time out at ATL...CLE has won 19 of their last 20...These 2 injuries to "Z" and Gibson are going to catch up with them...Look-ahead game potentially as Denver is next up...You generally see the effort-level rise for most NBA teams the longer a losing streak goes...Minny got thrashed at SAC last time out and I look for them to give CLE some fight tonight as Kevin McHale is still looking for his first win...No reason why the back-door shouldn't be open late in this one...

Level 1 -- Atlanta Hawks Pick (+149 -- MatchBook), laying $168 to win $250 -- Boston has tied the best start in NBA history and have won 15 in a row...Is Pierce 100%?...Atlanta must have something to prove here and would love to make a statement that what happened at Home last April in the playoffs was no fluke...The Hawks only lost to the Celtics by 1 at BOS early in the season when they were in a bad spot, in the back-end of a back-to-back and BOS was rested...Boston cannot win every game the rest of the way, so this is as good a spot as any to see them lose, as the Hawks are 9-1 at Home...They have established a dominant home-court advantage starting with that playoff series last April...BIG game for the Hawks and I'll take the team that has the motivational edge every time...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 17, 2008 - 6:40 PM ET #11

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-29, -$135.50
================================================== =====================
==============================
Sides: 178-181-6
#1 picks: 25-25

Totals: 184-172-9
#1 picks: 22-26-2
=====================================

Day 51:

Running late again and this may become a theme here...

Sides:

#1 Min +10
#2 Atl +4
#3 Phi -3.5
#4 GS +6.5
#5 Chi -3
#6 NO -2
#7 Utah -2.5
#8 Dal -2.5
#9 Was +9.5

Totals:

#1 GS ov 226.5
#2 NO un 185
#3 Dal un 198
#4 Atl un 187
#5 Chi un 195
#6 Was un 200
#7 Min un 187
#8 Utah un 199
#9 Phi un 193

BETS posted...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: ================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

0

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-29, -$135.50
================================================== =====================
==============================
Sides: 178-181-6
#1 picks: 25-25

Totals: 184-172-9
#1 picks: 22-26-2
=====================================

Day 51:

Running late again and this may become a theme here...

Sides:

#1 Min +10
#2 Atl +4
#3 Phi -3.5
#4 GS +6.5
#5 Chi -3
#6 NO -2
#7 Utah -2.5
#8 Dal -2.5
#9 Was +9.5

Totals:

#1 GS ov 226.5
#2 NO un 185
#3 Dal un 198
#4 Atl un 187
#5 Chi un 195
#6 Was un 200
#7 Min un 187
#8 Utah un 199
#9 Phi un 193

BETS posted...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: ================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 18, 2008 - 4:50 PM ET #12

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-31, -$553.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: ==============================
Sides: 184-184-6
#1 picks: 25-26

Totals: 192-173-9
#1 picks: 23-26-2
=====================================

Day 52:

Very strong chart plays for the Portland game on both the side and the total...PHOE had an Over 9 snapped last time out and PORT had a NC7 snapped last time out...Chart-plays in a slump the last 10 days...Quasi-chart plays doing very well, but I haven't bet enough of those lately...All picks 14-4 last nigth but managed to go 0-2 with bets...Same thing Monday as I went 12-5-1 with my picks and 0-2 with bets last night...Taking the night off unless I see a 2H play or unless I want to bet PORT because I think they win this...PHOE has won 11 straight and 15 of 16 h2h in this series so I know the motivational edhe goes to the Blazers...

Sides:

#1 Port -4.5
#2 SA -2.5

Totals:

#1 Port un 203
#2 SA ov 192

NO BETS...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: ================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

0

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-31, -$553.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: ==============================
Sides: 184-184-6
#1 picks: 25-26

Totals: 192-173-9
#1 picks: 23-26-2
=====================================

Day 52:

Very strong chart plays for the Portland game on both the side and the total...PHOE had an Over 9 snapped last time out and PORT had a NC7 snapped last time out...Chart-plays in a slump the last 10 days...Quasi-chart plays doing very well, but I haven't bet enough of those lately...All picks 14-4 last nigth but managed to go 0-2 with bets...Same thing Monday as I went 12-5-1 with my picks and 0-2 with bets last night...Taking the night off unless I see a 2H play or unless I want to bet PORT because I think they win this...PHOE has won 11 straight and 15 of 16 h2h in this series so I know the motivational edhe goes to the Blazers...

Sides:

#1 Port -4.5
#2 SA -2.5

Totals:

#1 Port un 203
#2 SA ov 192

NO BETS...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: ================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

brewers7

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 2191

Posted: Dec. 19, 2008 - 3:45 PM ET #13

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-31, -$553.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here:
==============================
Sides: 185-185-6
#1 picks: 26-26

Totals: 192-175-9
#1 picks: 23-27-2
=====================================

Day 53:

First Level 3 play of the year...I like this Knicks game Over, too, but do I really need to bet another game with a Level 3 game on the board?...I might play it, we'll see...I like my top 3 totals, but may pass...Maybe there will be a 2H play if a gift presents itself...

Sides:

#1 Den -1
#2 Sac +12.5
#3 Mia +7.5
#4 OKC +6
#5 Chi +12.5
#6 Was +1
#7 Det -3
#8 GS +10.5
#9 Memp -4
#10 Milw +4
#11 Dal -3.5
#12 LAC +2.5

Totals:

#1 Milw ov 215.5
#2 Sac un 203.5
#3 Memp un 182.5
#4 Den un 198.5
#5 Det un 191.5
#6 Chi un 196
#7 Mia un 203
#8 Was ov 193.5
#9 LAC un 207
#10 Dal un 199
#11 OKV un 199.5
#12 GS un 217

BET:

Level 3 -- Denver Nuggets -1, laying $1785 to win $1750 -- Won't be too many of these during the year, but a spot has finally reared its head for a Level 3 play...I have yet to find a factor to point to CLE here...Revenge spot for Denver...They have owned CLE for the most part since LeBron and Melo came into the league...The first time they played at CLE, the Nuggets had only had Chauncy Billips playing his 4th game with the Nuggets since the trade...Since Billups has been on board, the Nuggets have not lost 2 games in a row...Denver is off a loss here...CLE has been scorching hot, covering 11 of 12 and 15 of 17 and are the best ATS team in the league...You have to remember something about this recent cover streak, covering 12 of 13...Atlanta was the ONLY winning team they faced during the streak, and it was the first game of the streak and they beat them and covered against them at Home...ATL later beat them at ATL to end the streak...When CLE "steps up in class" and plays teams that are "elite" teamsor close to elite, they are 1-2 SU this season and 0-2 SU on the Road against REAL quality competition (won against DEN at Home and lost to New Orleans & Boston on the Road)...If you want to include "Tier 2" teams like ATL and Utah, well, it comes down to Home and Away...CLE is 3-0 at Home and 0-3 on the Road if you want to include these teams in the mix...Ilgauskas and Gibson injuries will matter against top-notch competition and we saw that at ATL 2 games ago...A quasi-chart play to fade CLE...A bit of a statement game for sure here for Denver on National TV...The motivational edge is clearly with the Nuggets, and since every factor that I have looked at points to Denver AND they have the motivational edge to boot, this becomes a Level 3 play as we have TONS of VALUE here due to Cleveland's incrediblt ATS run as we only need a Denver win here to win (unless they win by 1 and it's a push)...

Again, at Level 3, I am betting to win 10% of my Level 3 bankroll, 5% of my Level 2 bankrool and 2.5% of my Level 1 bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: ================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

0

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-31, -$553.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here:
==============================
Sides: 185-185-6
#1 picks: 26-26

Totals: 192-175-9
#1 picks: 23-27-2
=====================================

Day 53:

First Level 3 play of the year...I like this Knicks game Over, too, but do I really need to bet another game with a Level 3 game on the board?...I might play it, we'll see...I like my top 3 totals, but may pass...Maybe there will be a 2H play if a gift presents itself...

Sides:

#1 Den -1
#2 Sac +12.5
#3 Mia +7.5
#4 OKC +6
#5 Chi +12.5
#6 Was +1
#7 Det -3
#8 GS +10.5
#9 Memp -4
#10 Milw +4
#11 Dal -3.5
#12 LAC +2.5

Totals:

#1 Milw ov 215.5
#2 Sac un 203.5
#3 Memp un 182.5
#4 Den un 198.5
#5 Det un 191.5
#6 Chi un 196
#7 Mia un 203
#8 Was ov 193.5
#9 LAC un 207
#10 Dal un 199
#11 OKV un 199.5
#12 GS un 217

BET:

Level 3 -- Denver Nuggets -1, laying $1785 to win $1750 -- Won't be too many of these during the year, but a spot has finally reared its head for a Level 3 play...I have yet to find a factor to point to CLE here...Revenge spot for Denver...They have owned CLE for the most part since LeBron and Melo came into the league...The first time they played at CLE, the Nuggets had only had Chauncy Billips playing his 4th game with the Nuggets since the trade...Since Billups has been on board, the Nuggets have not lost 2 games in a row...Denver is off a loss here...CLE has been scorching hot, covering 11 of 12 and 15 of 17 and are the best ATS team in the league...You have to remember something about this recent cover streak, covering 12 of 13...Atlanta was the ONLY winning team they faced during the streak, and it was the first game of the streak and they beat them and covered against them at Home...ATL later beat them at ATL to end the streak...When CLE "steps up in class" and plays teams that are "elite" teamsor close to elite, they are 1-2 SU this season and 0-2 SU on the Road against REAL quality competition (won against DEN at Home and lost to New Orleans & Boston on the Road)...If you want to include "Tier 2" teams like ATL and Utah, well, it comes down to Home and Away...CLE is 3-0 at Home and 0-3 on the Road if you want to include these teams in the mix...Ilgauskas and Gibson injuries will matter against top-notch competition and we saw that at ATL 2 games ago...A quasi-chart play to fade CLE...A bit of a statement game for sure here for Denver on National TV...The motivational edge is clearly with the Nuggets, and since every factor that I have looked at points to Denver AND they have the motivational edge to boot, this becomes a Level 3 play as we have TONS of VALUE here due to Cleveland's incrediblt ATS run as we only need a Denver win here to win (unless they win by 1 and it's a push)...

Again, at Level 3, I am betting to win 10% of my Level 3 bankroll, 5% of my Level 2 bankrool and 2.5% of my Level 1 bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: ================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

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