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JP1 since they claim im a TOUT!!!IM POSTING PICKS

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Posted: #26

Level 2/7 Kansas City Royal 1st 5 innings ML +115

31.44/36.16

 

 
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Posted: #27

reaching for a quick buck has the same chance of success as an ice cube on a hot stove.Some famous investors like betting on horses. They include PeterLynch, of Magellan Fund fame, and Warren Buffett, who used to publish a newsletter on handicapping. My friend Lou, to whom my first book was dedicated, spent several years on the handicapping circuit and bet on horses for a living before buying an exchange seat and approaching financial markets like a cool handicapper. Some card games, such as baccarat, are based on chance alone, whereas others, such as blackjack, involve a degree of skill that attracts intelligent people.Professionals treat gambling as a job. They keep calculating odds and act only when mathematics point in their favor. Losers, on the other hand, itch for the action and enter one game after another, switching between half-baked systems. When you gamble for entertainment, follow a set of money management rules. The first rule is to limit how much you’ll risk in any given session. On a rare occasion when a friend pulls me into a casino, I put what I am willing to lose that night into my right pocket, and stuff my winnings, if any, into the left one. I stop playing as soon as my right pocket is empty, without ever reaching into the left. Once in a while I find more money in the left pocket than I had in my right, but I certainly do not count on it. A friend who is a successful businessman enjoys the glitter of Las Vegas. Several times a year he takes $5,000 in cash and flies there for a weekend. When his bankroll runs out, he goes for a swim in the pool, enjoys a good dinner, and flies back home. He can afford to spend $5,000 on entertainment and never blows more than his initial stake. Lounging at a pool after his cash is gone, he differs from legions of compulsive gamblers who keep charging more chips on their credit cards, waiting for their “luck” to turn. A gambler with no money management is guaranteed to bust out.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by HECTAR:

reaching for a quick buck has the same chance of success as an ice cube on a hot stove.Some famous investors like betting on horses. They include PeterLynch, of Magellan Fund fame, and Warren Buffett, who used to publish a newsletter on handicapping. My friend Lou, to whom my first book was dedicated, spent several years on the handicapping circuit and bet on horses for a living before buying an exchange seat and approaching financial markets like a cool handicapper. Some card games, such as baccarat, are based on chance alone, whereas others, such as blackjack, involve a degree of skill that attracts intelligent people.Professionals treat gambling as a job. They keep calculating odds and act only when mathematics point in their favor. Losers, on the other hand, itch for the action and enter one game after another, switching between half-baked systems. When you gamble for entertainment, follow a set of money management rules. The first rule is to limit how much you’ll risk in any given session. On a rare occasion when a friend pulls me into a casino, I put what I am willing to lose that night into my right pocket, and stuff my winnings, if any, into the left one. I stop playing as soon as my right pocket is empty, without ever reaching into the left. Once in a while I find more money in the left pocket than I had in my right, but I certainly do not count on it. A friend who is a successful businessman enjoys the glitter of Las Vegas. Several times a year he takes $5,000 in cash and flies there for a weekend. When his bankroll runs out, he goes for a swim in the pool, enjoys a good dinner, and flies back home. He can afford to spend $5,000 on entertainment and never blows more than his initial stake. Lounging at a pool after his cash is gone, he differs from legions of compulsive gamblers who keep charging more chips on their credit cards, waiting for their “luck” to turn. A gambler with no money management is guaranteed to bust out.

Hectar, words of wisdom from Dr. Elder, i like, thanks

 
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Posted: #29

Level 3/7

Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 2nd Half

77.03/73.36

 
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Posted: #30

Level 4 New York Mets 1st 5 innings -.5 (-105)

168.91/160.87

 
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Posted: #31
This should be interesting.
 
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Posted: #32

Level 5

Chicago White Sox -1.5+115

340.26/391.30

 
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Posted: #33

"All teams, all sports, will always revert to the mean average, only thing is you just cant gage exactly the game, you gage moreso the zone or range of games,  thus why i only do progressive betting,but with enough levels of entry. "

While true, the problem is you don't know how long streaks or runs will last for.  The rockets won like 18 in a row a couple years back, surley after 6 or 7 games you would of faded them and lost it all.  Same goes with LAD last year hitting the over 13 times in a row I believe.

 
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Posted: #34
The other problem...how can you use a mean reversion strategy in baseball when you only have a sample size of about 25 games for each team?  In trading the mean is determined from hundreds or thousands of data points depending on your time frame...this is hardly true with sports from season to season. 
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by cdmop:

The other problem...how can you use a mean reversion strategy in baseball when you only have a sample size of about 25 games for each team?  In trading the mean is determined from hundreds or thousands of data points depending on your time frame...this is hardly true with sports from season to season. 

Cdmop, you obviouusly have not read my other post, my data started in 2007 for baseball, a new season is irrelevant, any changes from team to team its the oddsmakers duty to put those factors into the line.

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by HECTAR:

"All teams, all sports, will always revert to the mean average, only thing is you just cant gage exactly the game, you gage moreso the zone or range of games,  thus why i only do progressive betting,but with enough levels of entry. "

While true, the problem is you don't know how long streaks or runs will last for.  The rockets won like 18 in a row a couple years back, surley after 6 or 7 games you would of faded them and lost it all.  Same goes with LAD last year hitting the over 13 times in a row I believe.

You are absolutely correct, but the thing is i never said i would not incur a streak that overcomes all my entries, its just those streaks of such are few and far in between, so i figure by the time i incur a massive streak, you can logically expect to already have a decent profit, no system is perfect i dont care who its coming from, its all about how efficient it is..

 
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Posted: #37
I am confused. How does this system work, or are you just posting who you think will win each time based on your own knowledge?
 
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Posted: #38
My bad it was LAA that went over 13 games in a row, then later on went under 12 games in a row.  While you might have a profit, you will not realize it because you will continue to bet against the streak thinking the next game will be a winner.
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by keldrin:

I am confused. How does this system work, or are you just posting who you think will win each time based on your own knowledge?

I use three indicators, sometimes my picks are from technical analysis, sometimes they derive from fundamental analysis, some time from situational analysis.  All in all i believe it is important to have a feel for all three and make your valuation accordingly..

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by HECTAR:

"All teams, all sports, will always revert to the mean average, only thing is you just cant gage exactly the game, you gage moreso the zone or range of games,  thus why i only do progressive betting,but with enough levels of entry. "

While true, the problem is you don't know how long streaks or runs will last for.  The rockets won like 18 in a row a couple years back, surley after 6 or 7 games you would of faded them and lost it all.  Same goes with LAD last year hitting the over 13 times in a row I believe.

Actually, I find betting with the streaks is beneficial. Sure the payout is not as good, but it worked for me this year in hockey - many of my bets were just to pad parlays. The Capitals won like 13 games in a row so I started betting with them every game after they had 7 or 8 and eventually when they lost I was still ahead. Sure they could lose the first game you bet on, but it's only 1 loss on your record. Senators, and Kings also had nice long streaks, and I bet against the Oilers and Flames who both lost over 10 in a row. After the streaks were over, I walked away from that system.

 
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Posted: #41

Overall 3-6

CSR 3-0

 
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Posted: #42

OVERALL 3-6

 CSR 3-0

BROLL 2693.18

BEGAN 2500

LEVEL 1 SAN ANTONIO 1ST HALF +2.5 +100

10.9/10.9

 
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Posted: #43

LEVEL 2 SAN ANTONIO 2ND HALF -1 -105

34.34/32.70

 
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Posted: #44

Level 2 Detroit Tigers Reverse Line -1.5+175

32.70/57.23

 

 
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Posted: #45
Level 3 Utah Jazz -1 2nd Half +100
 
76.30/76.30
 
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Posted: #46

Overall 4-8

CSR4-0

BRoll 2725.88

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by jpanoma1:

Overall 4-8

CSR4-0

BRoll 2725.88

Level 1 Chicago Cubs Alternate Run Line -2.5

11.03/15.44

 
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Posted: #48

Level 2 Milwaukee Brewers Reverse Run Line -1.5 +175

33.09/57.91

 
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Posted: #49

LEVEL 3 Tampa Bay Devil Rays Run Line -1.5 +125

77.21/96.51

 
 
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Posted: #50

Overall 5-10

CSR 5-0

BRoll 2778.27

Began 2500

LEVEL 1 New York Yankees Alternate Run Line -2.5 +210

11.25/23.63

 

 

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