Posted:
#3051
Gold, they middled
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
Posted:
#3054
Quote Originally Posted by frank3blacn0:
Early leans
Early leans
Over SA vs MEM 189
POR +7.5 @ GS
Under OKC @ LAL 217
Under HOU @ BOS 202
NY-4 vs CHI
any thoughts i am down big this week nearing the end of my roll thanks to teasing and not straight up betting like how i won on NFL big last week i need some help to get my roll up in time to make money on NFL this weekend
NFL thread
Posted:
#3056
Quote Originally Posted by ridibets:
mavin, would LAL be good play due to the reverse line movement?
mavin, would LAL be good play due to the reverse line movement?
i see 76% on OKC but the line moved from -7 to -5.5
NYK also has 76% but the line moved from -5.5 to -4, so the play would be chicago?
Late games are always enigma line movement wise. It is easier with the games in the middle of the evening. In Chicago's case as in Piston's, Grizzlies, Hornets cases it worked
Posted:
#3057
Quote Originally Posted by glenndef62:
Mav, if I may add to ridibets inquiry, yes, those games would fit the reverse criteria providing we are adhering strictly to the criteria.
Mav, if I may add to ridibets inquiry, yes, those games would fit the reverse criteria providing we are adhering strictly to the criteria.
Don't know about you guys, but when I subjectivize and objective scenerio, I get in trouble.
I can tell you have analytic mind - so today's outcomes so far compared with line movements and the public support are the best answer. Go game by game comparing line changes and the public support with the outcomes (and first half outcomes in case the game was at the end won by a public favorite or against the line movemets or both) and you'll have your answer. It is like driving and looking for an address by yourself or when someone tells you. If you do it by yourself - you will always remember
Posted:
#3058
Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:
Mavin, I want to continue to thank you on a great daily read and an on-going lesson in sports betting (not gambling).
I have posted in here before stating that I am not a basketball guy(at all). That doesn't mean I have never watched it, just that I never really paid attention to it like I do hockey, baseball and football. Since discovering this thread (and because there is no hockey - yet - and no baseball - yet - and football is winding down) I have started to watch basketball. At least the games you have bet on (because I am tailing). I have to tell you, two things I noticed that I now realise have always been things that kept me away from basketball. One, is the amount of timeouts used late in games. Jesus, it is hard to watch the last two minutes of a basketball game. Two, the amount of wasted possessions that basketball produces. It is like watching hockey and seeing wingers fly down the boards, wind up from just inside the blue line and fire a puck that misses far side wide and careens right around the boards and out of the zone. And this happens in basketball more than 50% of the time.
Being a numbers guy, I thought I would look into this idea of wasting possessions. I know you are looking for continued insight into how to identify possible bets, so last night while watching the Kings somehow blow a 17 point 3rd quarter lead, I started looking at shooting percentages. What bothered me most this last week was watching teams throw up 3-pointers. I can't believe what low percentage shots these are. So, I started comparing 3 pt shooting percentages and more importantly, attempts made. How many wasted possessions does each team have during the game. I started looking for games where there is a large differential between number of three point attempts. If I found a game where that existed, look for the team that hit at or above the league average. Theory being that teams that throw up a bunch of low percentage shots (specifically more than the league average) will be giving away possessions. Then see if the team that is gaining the possessions has a high enough FG% to make the added possessions worthwhile. I am not sure how successful this will be, and I will have to rely on you to filter it or analyze it differently, but, below would be my picks for tonight (based on my hate of the 3 pointer):
OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made, 20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3 pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers (7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC. OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.
Utah +4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game (19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away 14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions. That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 = 1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers. And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.
GS -7.5. I would be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers. Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more points, that's what I am looking for.
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
Mavin, I want to continue to thank you on a great daily read and an on-going lesson in sports betting (not gambling).
I have posted in here before stating that I am not a basketball guy(at all). That doesn't mean I have never watched it, just that I never really paid attention to it like I do hockey, baseball and football. Since discovering this thread (and because there is no hockey - yet - and no baseball - yet - and football is winding down) I have started to watch basketball. At least the games you have bet on (because I am tailing). I have to tell you, two things I noticed that I now realise have always been things that kept me away from basketball. One, is the amount of timeouts used late in games. Jesus, it is hard to watch the last two minutes of a basketball game. Two, the amount of wasted possessions that basketball produces. It is like watching hockey and seeing wingers fly down the boards, wind up from just inside the blue line and fire a puck that misses far side wide and careens right around the boards and out of the zone. And this happens in basketball more than 50% of the time.
Being a numbers guy, I thought I would look into this idea of wasting possessions. I know you are looking for continued insight into how to identify possible bets, so last night while watching the Kings somehow blow a 17 point 3rd quarter lead, I started looking at shooting percentages. What bothered me most this last week was watching teams throw up 3-pointers. I can't believe what low percentage shots these are. So, I started comparing 3 pt shooting percentages and more importantly, attempts made. How many wasted possessions does each team have during the game. I started looking for games where there is a large differential between number of three point attempts. If I found a game where that existed, look for the team that hit at or above the league average. Theory being that teams that throw up a bunch of low percentage shots (specifically more than the league average) will be giving away possessions. Then see if the team that is gaining the possessions has a high enough FG% to make the added possessions worthwhile. I am not sure how successful this will be, and I will have to rely on you to filter it or analyze it differently, but, below would be my picks for tonight (based on my hate of the 3 pointer):
OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made, 20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3 pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers (7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC. OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.
Utah +4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game (19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away 14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions. That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 = 1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers. And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.
GS -7.5. I would be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers. Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more points, that's what I am looking for.
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
Today is a classic day to answer to those questions by yourself looking at the results
Posted:
#3060
Mavin hit the NO -2.0 looks like a L with the den -12.0 in 2 days of the system looks like 2-1-1 alot better than what I was on Wednesday well on 2 divisional weekend I like GB 2.5 & I'm sticking with the mile high city hopefully they take care of business let me know what u think curios to know
Posted:
#3061
Quote Originally Posted by East_Fresno_Don:
not sure what u mean turbo? could u elaborate?
not sure what u mean turbo? could u elaborate?
What I mean is that on the NFL I like playing open spots (assuming your book does it) where in some cases you can make a pick an lets say 1-9 open spots or pick 3 and x amount of open spots- what this does is allows you to follow your team or pick the lines in some cases up to 90 days- so for instance week one I picked $50 and picked all the favorites to cover with 6 open spots- the bet as I have it pays around $20k assuming the other lines have -110 standard juice- I already have 4 out of 10 on that one have others with two open remaining that pay about 1k to 3k lost one that was going to pay $7900 where i had luck and RGIII winning- another one was all the unders where i picked all 4 under and two open spots that is still open- I did this during the season and hit the 10 however I was doing money lines and since a few were the patriots and broncos games the payout was just $4300
Posted:
#3062
Quote Originally Posted by ocer12:
mavin noticed RLM in the NO o/u spread opened at 185 now its down to 182.5 n also in the BK gm opened 7.5 went to 7.0 despite bk is being backed by joe public n just to ad about okc RML i was expecting it to go up from 7 now its down 5.5 remember okc lost in washington on monday in KD return home we could have an upset tonight in staples on westbrooks return home n besides faker land n its fans r very unhappy could help beating the western conference champs on national tv
Those are no high school kids still playing for their fans and parents - those are millionaire crooks wearing team uniforms and could not care less about their fans. After a game they lose you think they go home and mourn? They don't remember it after the shower who they played it with
Posted:
#3063
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:
Hello all, hope you are doing well! not a bad night last night 1-0-1. knew i should of left my line at -4.5 for indianna but i got greedy and pushed my line to -5, oh well a push is better than a loss!
Strong early leans: Chicago +4 line went down from +5 while i see that over 55% of the public is on knicks.Mavin can you verify this, yesterday i turned out to be wrong on my public percentage with the indiana game.
phoenix +7 line started at 7.5 and has gone down while there seems to be around 60% of the public betting on the nets!
It either cashes on the full game (Chicago) or the first half (phoenix) as I said before. And that factor is to be determined before each game
Posted:
#3064
Quote Originally Posted by frank3blacn0:
my earlier post was just of leans not of picks and am not looking to gain a following just insight from the thread on thoughts of my leans
my earlier post was just of leans not of picks and am not looking to gain a following just insight from the thread on thoughts of my leans
Early leans
Over SA vs MEM 189
POR +7.5 @ GS
Under OKC @ LAL 217
Under HOU @ BOS 202
NY-4 vs CHI
A lot of SA games go well over 200 and i have a hard time seeing them go so far under 200 vs any1 and MEM has been scoring a lot lately too
POR is very hot right now 3 ML wins in a row and against better teams than GS but i think they will cover a large 7.5 tonight easy
LAL and OKC 217 is high for any game but with all the stars on LAL they have to drop off in scoring sooner or later even if OKC drops 110 i dont see LAL dropping more than 107? more like 105-98
BOS fans and followers know that a celtics game with a Under anything above 200 is a great chance for the game to go under HOU has been shooting the ball badly as has BOS and i dont see either team goin over 100 tonight
NY with Melo back he will be mad and ready to prove a point vs an EC rival but NY also played well enough with out him last night vs a better team to give me confidence
MAVIN, MELOS or any fellow thread followers insights???
When it does not work with many picks - you narrow down the number. Even start with one pick a night you feel strong about and slowly work your way up to two picks answering the same criteria your single pick won etc. Confidence is acquired thru success
Posted:
#3065
Quote Originally Posted by m10:
First official posting starts off well:
First official posting starts off well:
3-0 +300
Nets under 
NO money line
Det +6
Unofficially 12-5-1 with a 5-0 run
Nice Cash on Memphis Mavin 
Good luck the rest of the night. I will see everyone tomorrow.
Beat the books.
Grats buddy and thanks. Keep doing what you're doing on regular bases
and thanks. Keep doing what you're doing on regular bases
Posted:
#3066
Quote Originally Posted by washhead:
This is a very interesting angle, particularly from a self-described "not a basketball guy." I'm curious to watch and see what you find.
Tonight I'm taking Phoenix +7.5 and Chicago +4 (1-1 record so far). I'm playing both of these games strictly based on the line movement, or lack thereof. I'm also watching OKC/LAL. LA would seem to be the play here based on the line movement others have already pointed out, but I just don't know if I can bring myself to put money on them.
This is a very interesting angle, particularly from a self-described "not a basketball guy." I'm curious to watch and see what you find.
Tonight I'm taking Phoenix +7.5 and Chicago +4 (1-1 record so far). I'm playing both of these games strictly based on the line movement, or lack thereof. I'm also watching OKC/LAL. LA would seem to be the play here based on the line movement others have already pointed out, but I just don't know if I can bring myself to put money on them.
Keep it up. You'll get there
Posted:
#3067
Quote Originally Posted by Heads2134:
My record is 6-3 with +4.5 units
My plays for the day are
Hornets -2 1 unit
U Grizzlies 189 1 unit
Warriors -1/Nuggets -4.5 -150. 1.5 unit
like the Warriors after a hard loss to Memphis at home and the Blazers in b2b games, expecting a let down after beating Miami yesterday.
Nuggets have a great home record vs a depleted Cavalies team with Irving ill and maybe not playing.
Hornets are a duferent team since Gordon return, playing against the Twolves without Love, Barea and Rubio not playing well.
And i think the Griizlies will keep down the pace against the Spurs, i like how both teams match against each other, so I expect the under in this game.
Expecting a game like Hornets vs Spurs
My record is 6-3 with +4.5 units
My plays for the day are
Hornets -2 1 unit
U Grizzlies 189 1 unit
Warriors -1/Nuggets -4.5 -150. 1.5 unit
like the Warriors after a hard loss to Memphis at home and the Blazers in b2b games, expecting a let down after beating Miami yesterday.
Nuggets have a great home record vs a depleted Cavalies team with Irving ill and maybe not playing.
Hornets are a duferent team since Gordon return, playing against the Twolves without Love, Barea and Rubio not playing well.
And i think the Griizlies will keep down the pace against the Spurs, i like how both teams match against each other, so I expect the under in this game.
Expecting a game like Hornets vs Spurs
Keep up the good work. 
Posted:
#3068
Quote Originally Posted by Kohler:
Mavin,
This page 119 is doing that blow up thing again.!!
WASHHEAD - Just because the line moves in the Reverse of what we think it should doesn't mean anything unless we know why. To me that means we are putting our faith in "somebody must know something" type of info., which may be true sometimes but seems a little "sketchy".
How about the fact that Brooklyn is at home and a much better team than Phoenix and is on a bit of a roll at that?
analyse the days results and you;ll get there
Posted:
#3074
Quote Originally Posted by Zireal:
My picks for
tonight:
PHX-BKN – UNDER 194
despite the
trend (10 last games between those teams with total 200 or higher) line opened
at 193... looks like an invitation to bet for over... I’m not buying that.
MIN-NOH – OVER 182,5
I dont think that those teams changed a lot since last month when they scored 215 points combined!
My record: 1-0
Now its 3-0. But most important - you're doing everything as a you supposed you in every sense
Posted:
#3075
Quote Originally Posted by composite:
Thanks for this thread. There's great strategies in here. One thought I had for the RLM approach to work is that you would need a good understanding of what public bettors expect the line to be. How else would you know whether Vegas has a set up a "trap" (for lack of a better word) or not?
For instance Zireal mentioned the prior MIN-NO game which ended at 215. I just wonder how important the average bettor would place on the prior MIN-NO game to handicap the total for today's game? Wouldn't they factor MIN's and NO average totals and their opponent's average totals? Home and away? At least those would be factors I'd imagine that the public thinks.
Just my 2c. Curious what others think.
You should today's results as an analyzing tool
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