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Guaji

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 1220

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 11:23 AM ET #251

Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

Ok first to explain to Old-Jax why i like the Clippers:

-Utah has lost 3 outta last 5 at home

-Utah only has 2 wins in last 7 games

-Mo williams is out****

-Clippers if they win tonight have won 15 straight games and are the hottest team in the NBA right now

-Clippers have possibly best depth in the NBA along with KNICKS AND SPURS (i have prob forgot a good depth team but that's ok) which is why i think playing 3 outta 4 days will not effect them quite like it would other teams

-Utah lost 2 outta 3 with Mo Williams gone and barely beat Orlando who were without Big Baby Glen Davis

-I have to roll with a team that has won 15 straight....kinda like rolling with the SPURS at the beg of the season

-I really think Mo Williams being out will be huge in this game, hopefully Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan can shutdown the 2 good big buys inside for the Jazz

With that being said Utah is an extremely good home team still and It is the NBA so anything can happen but thats why I am rolling with LA.

I love Golden State tomm too...

I could wake up tomm and feel diff about the Clips but for right now I am rolling with them with the line only at 2...

Well, in my opinion about the Utah-Clippers game. It seems that the books are showing us that this game will be no easy like yesterday. If we take the logic the lines should be the same as yesterday -9 or even -6 minimum. But you don´t think that -3 is really low for Utah. Also remember that at home Utah is good. Well, is my own opinion.

phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 11:23 AM ET #252

ROI question

8 games wagered >> 5 wins - 3 losses >> 880 invested >> total return 1050>> profit = 170 = 19.31%ROI =62.5% winning rate

4 games wagered>> 3 wins - 1 loss>> 440 invested>> totals return 630 >> profit=190 = 43.18 ROI = 75% winning rate

Why risk double as much money to win less? fiiire - who has to learn the basic math?

Guaji

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 1220

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 11:25 AM ET #253

oh and please stop the ROI thing discussion. Better let´s discuss today´s games.

winchester

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 7

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 11:28 AM ET #254

Miami-piston tough pick

Bullets25

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 39

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:13 PM ET #255

I think the play will be Detroit. Public on Miami but line went down to 6.5 from 8

SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:16 PM ET #256

After looking and studying today's card and following the line changes, my first lean isas of now:

Utah Jazz +3. No doubt the Clippers are a hell of a team right now. And the Jazz has been struggling. So why that line? By all means - the Clippers have drubbing opposition by DD lately and have forgotten how the post game press conference after a loss looks like. In my opinion that is an invitation to bet the Clippers and the public has responded to that invitation massively. Yet the line has dropped to -2.5 and due to massive betting on the Clippers - climbed back up to -3 but with slightly lower odds on Utah(!) side.

SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:20 PM ET #257

Quote Originally Posted by Bullets25:

I think the play will be Detroit. Public on Miami but line went down to 6.5 from 8

That one greatly depends on Detroit if they'll be able to take what Miami will give. I'm following that but yet not turning it into a lean. Same as the Sixers in GS.

SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:23 PM ET #258

Atlanta -5.5 and Denver -3 are interesting me as well. Not the leans yet and certainly not the picks - but the line behavior and the money seem to stride together. Meaning that the stronger teams are due to triumph and cover as well.

melosjumper7

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1106

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:25 PM ET #259

hmm i wouldn't have guessed any of those....but thats why I'm here and i cant wait for you to finalize your picks Mavin...BOL

JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26762

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:27 PM ET #260

One of the best threads on covers in a long time,problems will be when you lose a game or 2 and those that are just waiting for it so they can throw their hate everywhere,but thats covers.
I was actually thinking Utah on the m/l at this point,that line is so off it might be to easy to play,the books have to see it also it would seem.

JayFurley

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 144

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:28 PM ET #261

My book just bumped ATL up to -6, like almost right as you posted that.

melosjumper7

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1106

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:29 PM ET #262

I do like Denver and Atlanta a lot though...Especially with Varaejao still out for Cleveland I think Atlanta could dominate inside. I wonder what Cleveland thinks of J.J. Hickson now!!...Mavin what about Indiana vs Phoenix with Gortat out...also thought maybe under 188 in that game...

melosjumper7

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1106

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:32 PM ET #263

Also I still dont see why that Utah and LA line is off.....LA has won 15 straight and Utah has lost 3 outta last 5 at home and are without Mo Williams...???

SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:33 PM ET #264

Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

Also I still dont see why that Utah and LA line is off.....LA has won 15 straight and Utah has lost 3 outta last 5 at home and are without Mo Williams...???

You said it yourself. It should at least be LA Clippers -5.5

JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26762

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:34 PM ET #265

Also that line on Rutgers_VT is a bit weird,I would think Rutgers should be -3 at least,but they are getting a point,am I missing something here?
I also played over 59.5 in first game a minute before it started,thought about Ohio getting 7,but thought the over was better.

manstar10

Veteran

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 1786

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:44 PM ET #266

alright Mavin, i got so excited to see ur first lean i just quickly bet 2 units on JAZZ +3! lets go

manutdfctts9899

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 11318

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:48 PM ET #267

BOL to you!!

JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26762

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:50 PM ET #268

Their is also a good CBB play tonight,Iona+8 against St Joes,their inside guy is serving the second game of a 2 game susp.for a double flip off of Villanova fans,I had Fairfield +10.5 in first game,they won by 3,I have a unit on Iona and a 1/2 unit on m/l.The m/l for 8 points was only+240,should be closer to +370.
JFen would is a recent grad of St Joes has a good write-up on this game in the CBB thread.

SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:52 PM ET #269

Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

One of the best threads on covers in a long time,problems will be when you lose a game or 2 and those that are just waiting for it so they can throw their hate everywhere,but thats covers.
I was actually thinking Utah on the m/l at this point,that line is so off it might be to easy to play,the books have to see it also it would seem.

I have no problems with that. The issue here is not my ego. In know the rules of the game. The issue is turning our efforts into fruitful ones and all the rest is crap.

I advise not to be greedy. Good thinking laying off a ML as most of the spread is better

Old-Jax

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 63

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:52 PM ET #270

Quote Originally Posted by manstar10:

alright Mavin, i got so excited to see ur first lean i just quickly bet 2 units on JAZZ +3! lets go

What will be telling is whether you win or lose in terms on line movement. If that game trends to 2.5/2, I would think you are in great shape. Good luck. I am watching movement in that closely.

Old-Jax

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 63

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:52 PM ET #271

Quote Originally Posted by manstar10:

alright Mavin, i got so excited to see ur first lean i just quickly bet 2 units on JAZZ +3! lets go

What will be telling is whether you win or lose in terms on line movement. If that game trends to 2.5/2, I would think you are in great shape. Good luck. I am watching movement in that closely.

melosjumper7

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1106

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:54 PM ET #272

well yeah MAVIN it should be more for LA -.....but isnt that a reason why we SHOULD bet on CLIPPERS???....sinc we are getting 3 extra points in clippers favor instead of the JAZZ

SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:55 PM ET #273

Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Their is also a good CBB play tonight,Iona+8 against St Joes,their inside guy is serving the second game of a 2 game susp.for a double flip off of Villanova fans,I had Fairfield +10.5 in first game,they won by 3,I have a unit on Iona and a 1/2 unit on m/l.The m/l for 8 points was only+240,should be closer to +370.
JFen would is a recent grad of St Joes has a good write-up on this game in the CBB thread.

fiire

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 167

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:58 PM ET #274

Quote Originally Posted by FinesFan:

I think you just don't understand maths..

It is simple to understand than a ROI of 5% isn't the same as a ROI of 1%... Would you prefer to risk 1 000$ and win 50$ instead of risking 10 000$ to make 100$ ?

It is the wrong question.

Are you certain you can invest the $10k safely to gain a return of 100$ during the same time?

Then yes I'd choose to make 100$ instead of 50$, it just involves turning the same bank over multiple times.

But it already comes closer to the core questions.

What are you comfortable with?
How skilled are you as a capper?
Can you quantify your edge accurately enough to make those close calls?

If yes it's extra profit, if no leave those closer bets out.

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

8 games wagered >> 5 wins - 3 losses >> 880 invested >> total return 1050>> profit = 170 = 19.31%ROI =62.5% winning rate

4 games wagered>> 3 wins - 1 loss>> 440 invested>> totals return 630 >> profit=190 = 43.18 ROI = 75% winning rate

Why risk double as much money to win less? fiiire - who has to learn the basic math?

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

That's ridiculous. You mean you know your math and can't figure that winning depends on high percentage of successful picks rather than the number of them? If you're afraid the league has # number of the plays - play high probability games only doubling your wagers and the result will be same or better because less juice will be wasted!

You don't understand the problem.
NBA regular season ~1200 games

-> Maximize your profit during this season.
-> Equals if you are certain there is an edge, take it.

Say you have 100 games, 5 of them you know you have a big edge, which equals to a 5% ROI, you bet them with a big stake.

10 others you are certain you have an edge, which equals to about 2% ROI, you bet them for your normal stake.

20 others you are not sure and think your edge is about 1% so you have to be very cautios to either skip them or play for a smaller amount.

Now why only play the bets with the very big edge of 5% ROI and skip the rest? You just miss out on the money.

SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 3:13 PM ET #275

Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

well yeah MAVIN it should be more for LA -.....but isnt that a reason why we SHOULD bet on CLIPPERS???....sinc we are getting 3 extra points in clippers favor instead of the JAZZ

So, that's why that's an invitation to bet the Clips. It can the whole game cover for the Jazz or the first half only. That is why that is a lean. I'm trying to figure that. One of the two the Jazz will cover. May be all two. And also may be the second half only. I'm trying to figure that before finalizing it

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