Bet it now before the Portugal/France game.
I think the finals odds will look like this:
Italy -130 France +120
Italy -180 Portugal +170
Either way I think Italy is a bargain at -117.
GL all
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Bet it now before the Portugal/France game.
I think the finals odds will look like this:
Italy -130 France +120
Italy -180 Portugal +170
Either way I think Italy is a bargain at -117.
GL all
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did it... 5 units on italy -120 (bet365)
regardless of who wins todays game, i might let it ride unhedged anyway. i dont think italy can be beat right now.
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did it... 5 units on italy -120 (bet365)
regardless of who wins todays game, i might let it ride unhedged anyway. i dont think italy can be beat right now.
Sun 7/9 101 Italy (grand final matchup must go) pk and -0.5 +103
11:00 AM 102 Portugal (grand final matchup must go) pk and +0.5 -109
Sun 7/9 101 Italy (grand final matchup must go) pk and +0.5 -164
11:00 AM 102 France (grand final matchup must go) pk and -0.5 +156
Based on these current odds at pinnacle, France will be favoured if they play Italy in the finals. Italy-117 is only a good deal if you expect Portugal to beat France, otherwise you're probably giving away some $.
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Sun 7/9 101 Italy (grand final matchup must go) pk and -0.5 +103
11:00 AM 102 Portugal (grand final matchup must go) pk and +0.5 -109
Sun 7/9 101 Italy (grand final matchup must go) pk and +0.5 -164
11:00 AM 102 France (grand final matchup must go) pk and -0.5 +156
Based on these current odds at pinnacle, France will be favoured if they play Italy in the finals. Italy-117 is only a good deal if you expect Portugal to beat France, otherwise you're probably giving away some $.
Cashed in, why do you think according to those odds France is favored in the final??
Italy PK and +.5 is -164!!!
To me, that means Italy is favored at PKem.
The other thing is that Italy has nobody on yellow card suspension, if the yellows fly today there could be several French players out for the final, and especially portugese.
Either way, you most likely are not going to be stuck with a bad bet on Italy at -117.
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Cashed in, why do you think according to those odds France is favored in the final??
Italy PK and +.5 is -164!!!
To me, that means Italy is favored at PKem.
The other thing is that Italy has nobody on yellow card suspension, if the yellows fly today there could be several French players out for the final, and especially portugese.
Either way, you most likely are not going to be stuck with a bad bet on Italy at -117.
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France PK and +0.5 is -261 today against Portugal, and there number to advance is -161. I can't be bothered to do the calculations, but it is obvious that Italy will drop from -117 if they are playing France in the finals.
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France PK and +0.5 is -261 today against Portugal, and there number to advance is -161. I can't be bothered to do the calculations, but it is obvious that Italy will drop from -117 if they are playing France in the finals.
Cashedin -
I cant be bothered to explain to you why Italy will still be favored over France and why you are also in the bonus position of a 40% chance (oddswise) of Portugal winning today and having a big value.
Right now, Italy at -117 is a value. If France wins and the final is close to a pkem, the bet before the Portugal/France game is still a value because we dont know the winner yet.
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Cashedin -
I cant be bothered to explain to you why Italy will still be favored over France and why you are also in the bonus position of a 40% chance (oddswise) of Portugal winning today and having a big value.
Right now, Italy at -117 is a value. If France wins and the final is close to a pkem, the bet before the Portugal/France game is still a value because we dont know the winner yet.
OK I did some calculations to prove it for you, it's a little closer than I expected. It is easier to do the math in decimal pricing.
There should be a relationship between the odds for a team at PK and +0.5 and their price to advance, I am going to assume the books keep this relationship linear so that things stay consistent.
France PK and 0.5 = 1.383
France to advance = 1.613
1.383/1.613 = 0.8574 - relationship between the prices
Italy PK and 0.5 = 1.610
1.610/0.8574 = 1.877 --> this is the expected for Italy to advance
1.877 = -114
So if France makes the final, you can expect the line to be -115 to back Italy and probably -105 to back France. Of course injuries, cards, and the general performance of France could change this number. Since there is a decent possibility that Portugal could win, Italy at -117 is a good value play (despite the fact it doesn't look like it over 50% of the time).
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OK I did some calculations to prove it for you, it's a little closer than I expected. It is easier to do the math in decimal pricing.
There should be a relationship between the odds for a team at PK and +0.5 and their price to advance, I am going to assume the books keep this relationship linear so that things stay consistent.
France PK and 0.5 = 1.383
France to advance = 1.613
1.383/1.613 = 0.8574 - relationship between the prices
Italy PK and 0.5 = 1.610
1.610/0.8574 = 1.877 --> this is the expected for Italy to advance
1.877 = -114
So if France makes the final, you can expect the line to be -115 to back Italy and probably -105 to back France. Of course injuries, cards, and the general performance of France could change this number. Since there is a decent possibility that Portugal could win, Italy at -117 is a good value play (despite the fact it doesn't look like it over 50% of the time).
Vanzack, I see your point and it is correct. My point is that it is free to wait out the Por/Fra game and more times than not you will be better off waiting.
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Vanzack, I see your point and it is correct. My point is that it is free to wait out the Por/Fra game and more times than not you will be better off waiting.
Opening line at Pinny:
Sun 7/9 4 Italy pk -108 OVER 1.5 and 2 +121
10:00 AM 5 France pk +102 UNDER 1.5 and 2 -131
Sorry to anyone who laid an extra 9 cents on this one but you did have the benefit of a possible portugal matchup. There wasnt much to lose.
Should be a great final.
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Opening line at Pinny:
Sun 7/9 4 Italy pk -108 OVER 1.5 and 2 +121
10:00 AM 5 France pk +102 UNDER 1.5 and 2 -131
Sorry to anyone who laid an extra 9 cents on this one but you did have the benefit of a possible portugal matchup. There wasnt much to lose.
Should be a great final.
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Sun 7/9 4 Italy pk -108
10:00 AM 5 France pk +102
I guess Italy to win will come in around -125 now. Saha did get a yellow card which forces him out of the final, and the French didn't look as good as Italy did...these 2 factors may explain why the line isn't exactly what was expected.
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Sun 7/9 4 Italy pk -108
10:00 AM 5 France pk +102
I guess Italy to win will come in around -125 now. Saha did get a yellow card which forces him out of the final, and the French didn't look as good as Italy did...these 2 factors may explain why the line isn't exactly what was expected.
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Well, BC, I just unloaded on Italy -120 to win World Cup, since line will rise next few days.....and if it does (it will barring extenuating circumstances), then I will reduce exposure at kickoff and be able to hedge back at probably close to +120 for comeback.
But if somehow public wants to bet France, then I'll let the original ride.
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Well, BC, I just unloaded on Italy -120 to win World Cup, since line will rise next few days.....and if it does (it will barring extenuating circumstances), then I will reduce exposure at kickoff and be able to hedge back at probably close to +120 for comeback.
But if somehow public wants to bet France, then I'll let the original ride.
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