Indianapolis at Chicago (02/04/2007)

INDIANAPOLIS(7) 49 vs CHICAGO....

after throwing away money on SB's 30,31 and 32 by counting on the "big guns" just destroying the obviously inferior opponent it was time to figure out why the obviously inferior opponent kept taking the money.
i just had to go back and believe the age old saying that defense wins championships, and dam sure usually gets the money.
i applied the "david vs goliath" mentality with the "defense wins championships" theory and did the homework to come up with the reason for this improbable yet repetitive outcome.

as we all know vegas never loses and superbowls rarely come out like we thought, it's the biggest money exchange of the year even over christmas.
vegas sets the odds by perception subconciously swaying the general public as to who they want the public to take, the bigger the #, the easier the blowout....supposedly.

after breaking down every superbowl going back to the 1st one it became painfully obvious that in fact the better defensive team does in fact show up on super sunday and do what they have done all year long.
a couple good playoff games means nothing, it's what you've done over the course of the year consistently that makes the difference.

the keys to winning the superbowl have always been based on 3 things..
1) being able to run
2) stopping the run
3) turnovers

any superbowl not decided by these things is an abboration and i defy anyone to point one out.

SB 41
indy averages 114.5 rushing yrds per game
chi averages 123.8 rushing yrds per game

indy allows an ave of 157.3 rushing yrds per game
chi allows an ave of 98.8 rushing yrds per game

indy averages -1.3 turnovers per game
chi averages +2.1 turnovers per game

hence the systems i developed are based on how teams have done defensively all year over the long haul.
winning streaks and losing streaks come and go, but defensive consistency is just that, and takes a back seat to nothing.

onto the systems...

!) THE SHUTDOWN SYSTEM.

take the team who has allowed thier opponents to score 3pts or less the most times during the regular season.
if that # is equal...take the team who has allowed thier opponents to score 3pts or less more times in the playoffs.
if that # is equal...take the points.

this system has gone....
11-4-2 ats in the last 17 SB'S
15-6-2 ats in the last 23 SB'S
24-13-3 ats in all SB'S

an interesting subset to this system is that if one of the SB participants has a 2 or more game advantage that team has gone 10-1 su and 9-2 ats the last 11 times it has happened, averaging a final score of 35-19 with a total of 54 points.

SB 16 SF-1.........(+2 EDGE) WON 26-21
SB 19 SF-3.........(+2 EDGE) WON 38-16
SB 20 CHI-10......(+2 EDGE) WON 46-10
SB 22 DEN-3.5....(+2 EDGE) LOST 10-42
SB 26 WASH-7....(+3 EDGE) WON 37-24
SB 27 DAL-6.5.....(+2 EDGE) WON 52-17
SB 28 DAL-10.5...(+2 EDGE) WON 30-13
SB 32 DEN+11.5...(+4 EDGE) WON 31-24
SB 35 BAL-3........(+4 EDGE) WON 34-7
SB 37 TB+3.5......(+2 EDGE) WON 48-21
SB 38 NE-7.........(+3 EDGE) WON 32-29

now should there be a 2 or more game advantage for one team and the ave point total of the game reach the 54 point average chances are one of the teams will score 30pts or more, if this is the case.....

the SB 30pt breakdown....

all SB teams scoring 30pts or more are 18-1-2 ats
SB favs scoring 30pts or more are 14-1-2 ats
SB favs scoring less than 30pts are 6-16-1 ats (1-10-1 ats last 12)

if a SB team scores 30pts or more those bowls ave 55pts per game.

2) THE DEF-CON SYSTEM (defensive consistency)

take the team with the greater amount of regular season games in which they held thier opponents to less than 10 points.
if the # is equal...take the points.

this is the queen mother of superbowl systems that has consistantly produced the ats winner....

8-1-2 ats in last 11 superbowls
11-3-2 ats in last 16 superbowls
18-5-2 ats in last 25 superbowls

 GL,

RIPPER