Bowl Games thread.....

Miami vs Nevada (NO PLAY).  How can anyone be excited about backing a Miami team that has scored 17, 7, 13, 10, and 23 points in each of their last 5 games losing 4 out of those 5?  Will Miami even show up – this is a fantastic program playing in Boise at 6-6 – will they be motivated?  How will the coaching situation affect Miami?

There is no doubt that Miami’s defense is very good, but as you saw in the Clemson game yesterday a defense gets worn down over the course of the game if the offense just stinks and is not motivated.  Miami is a lot like FSU in that they will need turnovers, special teams plays, and other intangibles to put a lot of points up.

Nevada should be ready to play but are still at a class disadvantage in almost every category.

Overall, to much uncertainty for me to put money on.  PASS.

Tennessee -3.5 (**) vs Penn State.  Im liking these matchups of the Big Ten teams vs the SEC teams.  Both of these teams faired similarly in their conference schedule, each losing to the top 3 teams in their conference and winning the rest.  Problem is, the Big Ten teams suck after the top 3 and the SEC doesn’t.

PSU chance is to play great defense and hold TN in the teens, but I think TN will have too much speed at WR and this is where the difference will be.  TN will be able to move the ball in the air and PSU’s mediocre offense will stall out most of the day re PSU vs ND.

TN 24 – 7

Nebraska +2 (going to wait as this should go higher)( **) vs Auburn.  Auburn’s offense isn’t built to be in a shootout and I think this is where they will have trouble.  Nebraska will move the ball as Auburn tries to adjust to an offense that they see very little of in the SEC.

I think Nebraska gets up in the first half and Auburn scrambles to adjust but wont.  This is one of those style differences that Auburn will have trouble with and Nebraska wont.  If Neb avoids the turnovers that killed them late in the season they will win outright.

Nebraska 31 – 21

Arkansas -2.5 and ML -130 split (****) vs Wisconsin.  Here is a great example of a style adjustment and speed advantage that will kill wisky.  The big slow wisky defense will not stop the Arkansas attack.  I think that Ark will have their way on the ground game and that means Ark will win.  Simple.

I challenge anyone to find an easier schedule than Wisconsins.  Out of conference they played; Bowling Green, Western Illinois, San Diego St, and Buffalo.  In conference, they avoided Ohio State, lost to Michigan, and beat all the other terrible Big Ten teams.  Now Im not one to punish a team for a weak schedule because I believe that it can be misleading because they might have beaten better teams if they had the chance to – but I do alter my statistical modeling to adjust.  Wisconsin statistically has the 4^th best defense in NCAA but with my adjustments for opponents that number goes to 52^nd.  All of their stats go down when adjusted for opponent expectations.

This will be equal to S Carolina as my biggest bet of the bowl season.

Arkansas 35 – 10

W Virginia vs G Tech (NO PLAY).  I don’t know how anyone could wager on this game.  You either get a team with a QB that has never had any meaningful playing time or a very inconsistent WV team that sometimes shows up and other times doesn’t.

I wouldn’t be surprised with any outcome in this one, including a G Tech blowout.

PASS

Michigan +1 (***) vs USC.  Lots of individual factors add up to Michigan for me here.  Every game that USC struggled offensively in this season was because of defensive pressure on Booty.  UCLA and Cal were able to get at him and he is not like Leinart, he will turn it over and make bad decisions.  I think that the Michigan defense will be able to stop the run of USC (1^st in the nation against the run) and therefore force him to throw where USC will struggle.  They look like world beaters against ND, but look terrible against UCLA and the simple difference is pressure and coverage – both of which Michigan should excel at.

I also believe that Michigan believes that they are still in the National Championship race, even if it is just for the AP vote.  I also think that this has to be a letdown for USC after 2 years of playing at the top and losing their last game to UCLA.

Michigan 28-17

Boise +7.5 (*) vs Oklahoma.  I probably wont bet this game but if I had to choose I would take the points.  Call me crazy but I do believe that Boise has a chance here.  I get the feeling that they are the right kind of team to be able to keep pressure on Oklahoma and force them in to situations and mistakes.  I don’t buy that Paul Thompson is a pure dropback passer and if Boise can stop the Okl run they might be in trouble.

Probably a pass but might throw a fun bet on Boise.

Oklahoma 28-24