The Problem with 'Gamblers' and Gambling...

I am reading the in running thread today and I think you guys are crazy! Betting on players like De Bakker, Groth, Berrer?! I can only hope you guys have got maybe $10 bucks on these guys/girls but it seems more. I mean are you dudes nuts!

I am a member of a few of these sites. It's plainly obvious there are 2 types of gamblers..

1) Addictive, Complusive. I am now 35. I started gambling when I was 22. Within 3 years I had lost over 10k. I was out of control. I totally admit this. Chasing losses with crazy bets. Eventually, I started doing a spreadsheet. Where I was making losses, where I was making gains...Most gamblers fall under this category (Addictive, Complusive) . How people can bet any of their money on sportspeople/Horses etc etc that are not close to the elite level of their sport. I will never know (yet I was one of them). Let's keep this strictly to Tennis for the moment. Betting on players like DeBakker and Groth at odds against is a sure fire way to losing money in the long run. You have to factor far more variables in these spots. Gorth 0 career titles 67 in the world. De Bakker 0 career titles 50 in the world. Now both might win here but betting these kind of odds on these kind of players you will lose longterm.

While most of you won't admit it, I can guaretee you most people on covers and I say over 80% lose at gambling. I lost in the past so I know the feeling. The rush can be addictive (Groth tie break win today being a good example). People sweating on these results, guys my advice is don't bet these types of games in future. It's a lottery. I would not be able to help anyone out in this spot. The only help I would offer is NOT to play these types of matches. Ok the forum would be quiet but at least you will have extra money!

2) The second type of gambler is what I am trying to become. It factors 2 crucial things. Patience and Self Discipline. Up until the world cup this year I have shown alot of Patience and Self Discipline the last 8 years. Then when things were going great, I lost a large bet on England v Germany. Normally, I would not gamble for weeks if not months after such a loss, but I ended up playing Huge on Nadal v Murray @ Wimbledon and Spain in the semi's and final. They both hit but that is not my point. While I have made huge strides even the best gamblers struggle with patience and self discipline. After such a big loss on England I should have stuck to discipline and not gambled for months afterwards as its very easy for your judgement to be clouded. Clouded judgement = mistakes.

You can only be a successful gambler if you give yourselves no time limits. A problem with alot of gamblers is that they need a profit for the here and now. That is a sure fire way to go broke. Building a roll takes patience and time. Sometimes you can build a roll over 3-5 years and lose 50% of it on a big play you believe in. Those kind of days can be soul destroying and extremely testing as you can start making bad bets chasing in frustation and before you know it 3-5 years of patient bank roll building is obliterated in a drunken haze of madness.

The main way I make money is not rocket science. I don't provide picks in the main that are +300 or above.

The way I make money is patience. For example look at this pick -> https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=39&sub=100801764

I will have to wait until October 24th for this to cash. I take the prices now, because I know all of them will jump up and up and up and the value is gone. Alot of guys on covers will probably lose $1000 bucks betting on numerous matches/games. Sure they will be alot of highs and lows but what about the profit margin?. In all likeyhood my parlay will hit. I haven't missed one of these yet (one day I will as I have to), and in the main these hit. I didn't just pick these fights out of thin air off the top of my head. This is weeks and weeks of research. Then weeks and weeks of waiting...

I haven't posted on the Tennis forum since Wimbledon and posted twice this week both winners. Again not rocket science. Murray defending champ on a hard court against a rusty Nadal with revenge for Wimbledon on his mind. I was travelling when Murray played Nalbandian and in truth, I haven't been following much (except boxing as I am an addict). I would have thrown a quarter of my roll on my Murray v Nalbandian had I been following everything. That was the bet of theee tennis year. Still, I made a nice hit tailing Murray until the end. Now tipping Murray is not rocket science. Tipping Nadal at Wimdledon either. Just looking at history, form etc etc Tennis is a very easy sport to make money from.

I posted this play before Wimbledon. https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=100765410. I played Murray v Nadal large as well. It's a great example of picking your spots, showing patience and making money. Yet when reading so many posts over the Wimbledon fortnight, I saw so many ..

If anyone has any questions or would like some tips just PM me personally and make a friend request. Don't worry I don't charge!. I won't be on the boards much over the next 2 months, but I will answer any personal mails I get. I hope this post will help at least one person..

i agree 100% on the first part

De Bakker, Groth and Berrer were all really solid moneyline plays for a ton of reasons that many cappers have already listed. If you think that only name players represent value then you are missing out on the bulk of the value of capping this sport at all in my humble opinion. Not sure how you can dog those three wins, they were all solid and predictable as hell!

gl in your future bets on tennis, not commenting on your post at all other than the first few sentences.

Maybe today brother but if Groth loses the first set. I don't agree, but I guess thats what forums are about expressing an opinion and I won't shoot you down for it.

She won the next set in dominating fashion. The line was under -200 and a -200 that wins in three is IMO still a good bet. It is the -350s that win in three that I feel are bad value. Depends on where you draw the line.

Who knows what would have happened in different scenarios. I know De Bakker was up 5-1 in the third, where many of us thought that in a third set Monaco would be in trouble due to the months he had off tour. Groth played a powder puff who fought heart and soul to push it as far as she did, and Groth herself was probably playing her way back into things having not played in a little bit. Berrer was a +160 in a match where many thought and were correct that it was a 50-50 match beforehand, and if you win a +160 half the time obviously you are ahead of the game....

There is a lot of stuff out there and there are opportunities every day. I agree about being selective, no doubt, but it is not just a lottery as you stated. There are ways to beat this system, surely!

dont mind me though I am just playing with the Murray money form last week I expect you to like him for the US Open but who knows. I am still working on my opinion of who will win it.

Excellent post, and one I bookmarked for review as needed.  Also been betting for 12+ years and largely agree with everything you've written.  Your experience tracks mine in many ways.

Don't think you are getting the point, I am trying to make with the post Burning..Make a note of who you backed and the prices you took them at. See then how your profit margin looks after a few months..If its up, great job. The point I am trying to make is that for most regular gamblers it will be down over the longrun..

 

 

so in other words, if you eat chalk constantly, eventually it wont taste good

Please...Elaborate...What exactly is so funny? You have a man who does this for a living successfully for a nyumber of years, giving some good advice. Tell me what exactly is sooo funny? If people find it rubbish no problem, but if I can help one person then that's all the matters to me..

If you don't agree don't post, or at least explain your reasons why instead of trying to bring the thread down..

Do this for a living? You mean selling picks for a living?

wow, impressive post!

lets see, you can put $1000 on a 3 man boxing parlay 2 months away ...

but I cant play $13 on a 13 player tennis parlay to win $727 ...

so every man and woman has their own lifestyle of how they live, if they bet $1 like me on baseball tonight or $142 on the over 2.5 in the soccer match to win $100

your thoughts are greatly appreciated!

do you wager every day ? or just make a $1000 bet and wait for 2 months for the results to make a $1000

all I know is I am high as hell right now and all I care about is making money on a sport I obsess over. when you watch as much as me you are bound to make lots of bets. I think most here do this for fun and dont mind losing a few bucks. not everyone can win overall and no one wins all the time.

I wish you watched tennis more Mack. I feel like you use your knowledge well but you would find some real goldmines if you went more hardcore than you do. As it is you are like TennisCapper, a rare comet of good picks. But I think he is probably watching more matches than you even since you have to divide your focus between so many sports. I know I watch daily no matter how shitty the tournament and I think you can uncover some nuggets with that level obsession and that it is not a lottery.

I also sort of view the tour players as stocks to either fade or support. That means being OK with short term losses like today vs Safina just now, because keep fading her and something will cash soon until she puts a huge run together. Murray and Fed were high stocks to fade post AO and cashed many dog tickets due to struggling for long periods of time.  I think betting like investing in stocks makes it different but that that strategy can also work.

by the way ... I hit $6,489 off a $112 15 team college basketball parlay on march 5th, 2008

3 days later ... 15 team parlay college basketball $192 won $4754

so every one plays their own style

but I loved your initial post!

 

hey mack. while i do respect your opinion, it would probably be a good idea to post this when the 3 picks you referenced actually LOST. as someone who gladly laid the juice on berrer and groth, i could care less what anyone else thinks about it. to each his own. now i will proceed out to the porch to burn one and i hope everyone makes money. good luck to us all.

to each his own

if you are trying to go tout this is a fail bro...if you just want to give fellow tennis cappers advice its nothing we havent all heard before...as for myself,tennis has been my most profitable sport to wager on bar none...if I see a match-up and I like it for various reasons...I will bet it...Groth was a perfect example as Alona is in bad form and in her honeymoon phase of total sloppiness while Jarmila has been winning matches against quality players...its all about opinion and thats what counts...

I have alot of respect for Mack. I personally only gamble on boxing, but I stumbled into this forum by one of Mack's boxing links. However I find it hard to agree with the beginning of Mack's post because oftentimes people I respect make what I consider to be "stupid bets". Of course when it comes to boxing I value my opinion more than anyone elses(I'm a pro gambler), and people I respect sometimes tell me I'm making a stupid bet.

Everyone has to agree with Mack on patience. Just because one sees "value" on a certain bet doesn't mean one should pound it. I play quite large when I'm confident but I never put big money on an underdog unless I'm certain he's a winner. Of course "certainty" in gambling is a matter of opinion and capping boxing is different than othersports due to the fact that the favorites are priced so damn high. If a gambler has a winning track record and knows his sport the way I know mine, then I respect that person regarless of his style of play. However, I rarely respect gamblers that play all sports and don't specialize in 1 area. That to me is like a sign of compulsive gambling. If I sound like I'm being cocky, its because I am a pro gambler(no other source of income) and I'm making a nice living gambling on one sport that I obsess over(boxing).

being 21-25 and a student that is accomplishment betting "for a living"...congrats...

"Discipline and Patience"

Coming from somebody who lost HOW MUCH on an untested England team in the world cup?

Cmon Mack... gimme a break

I'm 25 with a fully furnished aprtartment. I got bills just like you only my job is gambling.

Mack

21661436: Straight Bet (08-16-2010 20:02)
San Diego Padres ( -110) (FG) K Correia - R /T Gorzelanny -L	W	227.27

#21661132: Straight Bet (08-16-2010 19:51)
San Diego Padres ( -110) (FG) K Correia - R /T Gorzelanny -L	W	18.18

#21661119: Straight Bet (08-16-2010 19:51)
San Diego Padres (-1½ +150) (FG) K Correia - R /T Gorzelanny -L	W	37.