Selected plays for Jan 2014. Only ATP

my record is what the plays posted here is. i'm not providing units or closing prices, since it is individual and I do not want people blindly following. it is not my money,
i'm just sharing ideas, not tips or any recommendations - i post my plays (for which i have time), where i put my money.

i do have a tendency to go on the runs.
once i hit the skids, i'll let people know, so at least the can make money opposing.

so far i've been doing well (based on my money management models), but this thing can change at any moment.

GL

that is the basic premise in most of the cases, yes.
but,  in my experience, there are always price discrepancies to be found once one starts digging into training cycles/incentives/current form etc.
and sometimes there are some not too obvious plays based on numbers.
it is still a gamble, after all

GL

ok, here are some plays and leans for R1 (top half) AO.

Outright: back: DelPotro, back-to-lay, Tsonga, Berdie (their prices should improve since Djokovic is playing before them).
I cannot see anybody defeating Djokovic. Not yet, at least, but those boys should at least make some money if they reach SFs.

R1 (top half): back, Mahut, Querrey, Kuku.
                   back, over Youzh - Struff
                   Lay: 3-0 Gulbis, 3-0 Haas

Leans: Niem, Davy, Bagzh
           over FMayer - Kudla

GL

      

any leans tonight?

few observations after R1 and some plays and leans for the R2 (bottom bracket).

1. Nadal looks good to me (the key for him on HCs is the serve, and he had a great success with the slider today, even considering Tomic's state). I'd take him outright if his price hits 5 at some point.
2. Murray may make it to the semis (i picked Tsonga before ante post)
he is not "match" sharp yet, but with a soft few rounds and his conditioning, he may be worth a play later.
3. I've trying to find an angle when it comes to extreme weather, which is forecast-ed through the first three rounds.
The last time i remember similar conditions, was in 2009 (second week that time). So, I thought I'd bring a snapshot of how it went then:

4th Round    5    Del Potro J.M.    Cilic M.    6    20
4th Round    5    Federer R.    Berdych T.    2    21
4th Round    5    Roddick A.    Robredo T.    9    22
4th Round    5    Djokovic N.    Baghdatis M.    3    97
4th Round    5    Simon G.    Monfils G.    8    13
4th Round    5    Verdasco F.    Murray A.    15    4
4th Round    5    Nadal R.    Gonzalez F.    1    14
4th Round    5    Tsonga J.W.    Blake J.    7    10
Quarterfinals    5    Roddick A.    Djokovic N.    9    3
Quarterfinals    5    Federer R.    Del Potro J.M.    2    6
Quarterfinals    5    Verdasco F.    Tsonga J.W.    15    7
Quarterfinals    5    Nadal R.    Simon G.    1    8
Semifinals    5    Federer R.    Roddick A.    2    9
Semifinals    5    Nadal R.    Verdasco F.    1    15
The Final    5    Nadal R.    Federer R.    1    2

.. and now, on to more practical matters.
I'd expect 3-4 dog wins on Wednesday and see a few straight plays that i like so far. I'll list them all here as plays, since for me they will be if i get the price i'm looking for.
if time allows i'll separate them later into plays (if i get the price) and leans (where i could not get the price). So far:

AO 2014, R2 (bottom bracket):
Back:
Istomin D.
Youzhny M. **
Chardy J. (some kind of hedge will be here)
Thiem D.
Querrey S.
Nieminen J. (this one is a stretch, probably)
Pospisil V. ***
Garcia-Lopez G. **

GL

ok, here is the final list for 01.15.2014:

Back: Youzhny, Pospisil (ML and -4.5), GGL (ML and -1.5), Querrey + 3.5, Nieminen
Lay: 3-0 Dolgopolov, 3-0 Gasquet

No play for me on Istomin - not at current prices. Will see if Chardy price improves in-play.

GL

3-0 dolgo? No way

hmm. not sure what to make of it..
the play is to LAY (bet against) Dolgo winning in straights (3-0)
in fact, i'm looking to back Chardy in play if situation presents itself.

very rarely (must check my records) do I back favs 3-0 in slams.
considering Dogs health issues (blood), I would not put a single cent on him winning in straights, most def.

GL

Oh ok. Yep u got a winner. This ones going 4 or 5

Gasquet in 4!

well, thanks, but if I "knew", I would not be in this business -)

GL

I don't have a situation on this match.
Gas, apparently, is not 100% physically , Davy is on the record saying "feeling good, despite going 5 against Kubot".
Faster conditions should suit Davy better, I'm tempted to add a kicker on ML, but at this point it is just a lay of 3-0 Gas

GL

Geez, If I knew, I would definitely be in this business!!! I don't know and I'm in it!

GL on the plays sir!

Plays for 01.16.2014, R2 (top bracket)

looks like very light day.
i would not be surprised to see all favorites win, though I don't see any plays that I like yet.
i'm sure there will be options in-play (Robert, Berrer, Young, Cilic), but for me there is only one play, based on several stats and general rules  (though I'd be mostly opposing Dimitrov this year):

Back: Dimitrov at 1.6+

GL

adding 2 plays:

back: sock +7.5 (main)
lay: 3-0 monfils

i just don't see monfils winning 6 straight sets in these conditions.

GL

01.18.2014, R3 bottom bracket.

nothing really, that jumps out as a big play.
Nadal now seems to be the winner of the tournament.

Plays: Back: Querrey, Anderson, Mayer


2 out of 3 should be enough to be in the money


GL

 

For 01.18.2014, R3 (top bracket).

i can only see a couple of live dogs: Dimitrov and Paire.
Robert could be considered a "live" dog simply because Klizan is not the most reliable of favorites.
also, i do not think fed-murr-nadal all win their matches in straight sets.
so my plays are:

Back: Raonic, Paire, Gaba +8.5,
tsonga - simon under 37.5

GL

i think there is a bit of overreaction by the market to Nadal's performance against Fed.
Wawa has a much "heavier" shot, and Nadal was troubled in the past by that (Tsonga, Sod and such had success against him).
Once he gets pushed way behind the baseline, his FH becomes less effective. Wawa most certainly can do that (Fed is more about speed and placement, it does not work well against Nadal)

Barring mental collapse from Wawrinka (and I have no idea what to expect in that department, though he seem to improve a lot) i'd expect a closer match than odds suggest.

I'm thinking about overs (35.5 should be good).

GL