Selected plays for Jan 2014. Only ATP

went 4-4 yesterday 1 voided, 13-11 on posted plays.
as seems to be the habit with me overestimated (yet - another - new - and - improved) gulbis. well, lesson learned.

For 01.03.2003
Chennai: Back: Chela (pending), Pospisil
Doha: Back: Monfils,  Monfils -3.5

GL

well, case in point: Steps just took down Raonic after dropping 1st..

3-1 on posted plays, 2-0 on "tech" trades i do in-play based on subset of stats i'm posting here (so it does not count for the overall record)

don't know if i'll have an opportunity to post any plays for the weekend, but some ideas i consider:
1. brisbane: back nishi vs hewitt, then take some play against fed in the final.
2. doha: i already have monfils outright. i'll stick with my position, we'll be looking at hedges available ante post and price movement to decide on any other plays.
3. brisbane, wta: not my area of expertise, but i'd lay s.w. 2-0

GL

went 2-3 in outright positions last week.
biggest positions (opposing federer and backing monfils each way) proved to be correct.
here is some "volatility" numbers for next week.
will run some numbers to see what the plays are, there is couple of things that i like.
later will post my take on current for form for some top guys.

Auckland    1st Round    21    60    35
Auckland    2nd Round    11    40    27.5
Auckland    Quarterfinals    6    20    30
Auckland    Semifinals    4    10    40
Auckland    The Final    1    5    20
Sydney    1st Round    19    60    31.67
Sydney    2nd Round    12    40    30
Sydney    Quarterfinals    4    20    20
Sydney    Semifinals    2    10    20
Sydney    The Final    2    5    40

GL
 

Some ideas for Auckland and Sydney.

In outright markets there 2 clear favorites, Ferrer and DelPo.
I would not touch either at the current prices. Would see if they make semis before deciding what the plays on them (if any) are.

I'd look at some stiffs (each way or back-to-lay) with good record at these tourneys for low stakes.
With these guys it is always hit or miss, though i'm thinking that at least one of the following will make semis:
Sydney: Cilic, Benne, Dolgo
Auckland: Bahgdatis, Kohlschrieber

so if i can get prices i like i'll take some of them (depending on showings in round 1)

in round 1 my biggest plays will be some of the following:
tomic, bagzie, dolgo, querrey, ggl

GL



 

3-0 so far today, 1 voided, 1 still pending.
Also got Benne matched outright.

For R2: back: Dolgo, Cilic, Turs, GGL, Sock
            lay: Haas 2-0

will see if there any more outright plays by thursday, hopefully.

GL

one more play: back, paire

went 5-3 today (lost on pending play, but Sock paid off).
also, one outright play is gone, two leans are gone also.

there are few trends i like in QFs. will run some numbers later and see what develops.

GL

some plays for QFs:

Sydney: outright: back Dolgopolov, lay DelPotro
             QFs: back Dolgo, lay 2-0 DelPo, back-to-lay 2-1 Steps

Auckland: outright: no bets
                QFs: back Lu, RBA

i'd also watch delpo - steps.. based on what i've seen and read so far backing Steps if he drops 1st set (or trails by a brake) would be the play. my guess steps takes it 2-1 (i'd also lean on over 21.5 at 1.8 and above)

GL

Your "Back" Plays are straight up ML yea?

And the the term "back to lay" means to bet on the bet against? In other words, you're backing the lay bet?

Yes, "back" means ML.
"Back to lay": as i said before i'm doing most of trading on the exchange (betfair). On their platform it means 2 trades:
1. Back (ML) your selection.
2. Once (if) the price starts moving (in-play) in your direction, close (lay) your position for a guaranteed profit.

the similar concept with the book would be some kind in-play "arbitrage" trade (backing opposing choice at higher price).
 

Do you play nba? Said strategy can be very effective...

No, i don't.
I'm coming from the WS background - I don't do this for fun (though fun it is in the end).
I only do sports to which I've had some exposure at pro level (either playing it or being close to people who do/did). I did two years of pro tennis training cycle, just to get the feel for what this guys go through.
So, it is only ATP tennis or hockey for me.
And only plays where I "think" I have the edge, based on my models in info stream.

Sounds like Hedging. Welp... if it works, it works.

When you list your Back bets, they look like parlays. I see what you're doing now though.

no, i don't do parlays.
yes, between finance and gambling (which are the same in my opinion) terminology sometimes get twisted.

i do some "hedging" (hc, totals) against main positions sometimes.

this thread is still work in progress, i'm sure i'll be able to get rid of any ambiguities eventually.

Thanks for the input.

GL

adding small play: back, Kohlschreiber.

not sure if isner is 100% (retired last week, status was DTD before R1).

great call on rba and lu

went 4-3, got a bit lucky when it comes to position sizes.
outright bets so far 0-2 this week.
Time to update the "black" book: Dolgo is still the same flaky s*head, new coach, training regiment and all..

When it comes to SFs, I'd expect at least one dog win. Tursunov, Lu and RBA all have chances - for these guys making finals is very big and favorites are mostly concerned with their slam preparations.

Will run some numbers to see what the plays are.

GL

yeah, those dogs look solid at first sight
especially RBA with isner being hurt
he clearly has a bad ankle and was limping badly in the final tie-break
shouldn't risk too much a few days before a slam

ok, there is a fine line between greed and fear in this business.
the key is too guess right -))

i think it's time to get greedy (besides, only one dog needs to win to show profit)

basic ideas are: the speed of courts (better suits turs then delpo), 3 potential 3 setters in a row (ferrer, delpo) before the slam, and isners match today (btw, i think he has no chance of making it to 2nd week at AO)

Plays: Lay 2-0 DelPo, back Tursunov, Tomic
          Lay 2-0 Ferrer, Back Lu, RBA

i would take Tomic outright at prices above 4.

GL

went 3-3 today (was a bit lucky to back tomic in-play)
Lu at 6.2 turned out to be the best play so far this week.

still puzzled by RBAs second serve placement - Isner even stopped pretending about his return tactic.. and RBA still kept ignoring open court of FH side.. guess there must be a reason behind his rankings, after all

aussie open draw is out.
will run some numbers later.

at first glance (barring injuries), to me it looks like

DelPo - Tsonga
Berdie - Djo

if what some people say about "conditions faster then in previous years" it looks to me like a rematch or 2008 final (though that mostly depends on what kind of mood tsonga will be at that time, and, of course, berdie can lose just to about anybody in the 1st week)

here is the "volatility" numbers for AO.
one amusing streak: in QFs, favs are 11-1 in the last 3 year. and the only dog win was ferrer 3-0 over nadal, paid at 1:85
anybody else took it that day?

1st Round    80    320    25
2nd Round    28    160    17.5
3rd Round    11    80    13.75
4th Round    5    40    12.5
Quarterfinals    5    20    25
Semifinals    2    10    20
The Final    1    5    20

So what's your record thus far?

Looks like as expected: favorites (best players) try harder in slams than in Small tourneys