Australian Open 2018 - The Official People's Champ Thread

Question

Welcome everyone...positive karma only

I will be the first to say this event has a ton of value early with dogs, however i havent been able to zero in on too many of these matchups and break too many down...I feel a bit out of the loop with how most of these players are doing physically and mentally, so i am not looking to get too committed with too many plays early, but rather watch and follow as much as i can over the first few days to see whats what.

First round action:

Locked in:

Rublev ML -110...this is his year to continue to rise up the rankings...i really like this guys game, and he can beat anyone outside of the top 10 on practically any given day....and lets call a spade a spade...Ferrer is a hollow version of the player he used to be...Ferrer can barely hold a service game anymore when matches get close, as if he gets tight

Schwartzman / Busta ML parlay (-135)...expecting 2 routine victories here by both players.

Thats really all for now...good luck everyone with the upcoming slam.

packersbackers · Answer

Welcome everyone...positive karma only

I will be the first to say this event has a ton of value early with dogs, however i havent been able to zero in on too many of these matchups and break too many down...I feel a bit out of the loop with how most of these players are doing physically and mentally, so i am not looking to get too committed with too many plays early, but rather watch and follow as much as i can over the first few days to see whats what.

First round action:

Locked in:

Rublev ML -110...this is his year to continue to rise up the rankings...i really like this guys game, and he can beat anyone outside of the top 10 on practically any given day....and lets call a spade a spade...Ferrer is a hollow version of the player he used to be...Ferrer can barely hold a service game anymore when matches get close, as if he gets tight

Schwartzman / Busta ML parlay (-135)...expecting 2 routine victories here by both players.

Thats really all for now...good luck everyone with the upcoming slam.

bet-lag · Answer

Which do u like better? Schwartzmab or Busta?

packersbackers · Answer

Busta&#x27;s opponent is clearly weaker than Schwartzmans opponent

packersbackers · Answer

Adding:Haider Maurer &#x2B;9.5 games (-120)Over 28.5 game (-120)Over 3.5 sets (&#x2B;240)This is purely a fade against Dolpo at such ridiculous heavy fav odds...never should he be trusted or backed at this mind boggling line of -2500 on the moneyline...sure he definitely should win this match, but anything is possible between 2 well below average players who havent ever done anything in grand slams before...an outright win by the dog here would shock me the least as Dolpo and his team always stand to profit one way or another when he loses to a dog at &#x2B;1200 ML , if you know what i mean

packersbackers · Answer

Full disclosure:I used to follow womens tennis alot in recent past years, but what i saw over most of the time last year when Serena was out, was just how awful the womens game really is to bet on from a capping perspective...nothing really made much sense to me, huge random upsets one week followed by crushing beatdowns the next all between the same group of "next gen" top elite players...betting womens tennis last year was extremely difficult when looking for edges or spots to bet &#x2B; games on live dogs.I likely wont be making to many aggressive picks on the womens side this event, unless there is something obvious that warrants a play.Tread lightly when betting and investing on women tennis players...mentally, you never truly know where their heads are at when they walk out on the court for any given match....for me, betting live after the 7th game of the first set typically works out far better than betting blind preflop.

Mike258 · Answer

You really think dolgo can lose a set? Love the spread play though.

SamLangford · Answer

Haider maurer is very much a clay court specialist. Barely plays on this surface. Has gone 13-27 on hard Court since 2011 but he did beat Tsonga as a &#x2B;800 underdog and Gulbis as a &#x2B;975 underdog in that span.

SamLangford · Answer

&#xA;But still asking Dolgo to cover -9.5 is a lot to ask for vs anyone. Would take a clean match from start to finish from a very unpredictable player. Can&#x27;t argue against taking a shot with the &#x2B;9.5 good luck

accountant4life · Answer

I approve of Haider Maurer &#x2B;9.5 games (-120)

stocktrader15 · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;I&#x27;ve seen Tsonga collapse to lesser players for e to give any wieght to Haider&#x27;s win over him.  If Tsonga is in a certaint mood he just doesn&#x27;t try..

BIGDTITLE · Answer

how is Wawrinka only a -170 favorite when most of the heavy favs are easily -300 in the initial rounds.......you smell an early exit for Stan?

packersbackers · Answer

I am seeing Stan -3.5 games (&#x2B;110)...i would say thats more value and a much safer option than -170 juice...if he wins, it could be routine....hes a complete unknown without playing a match for so long, i would look elsewhere and pass on this one, unless the spread peaks your interest.This thread is off to a pretty good start...Ovaltine

stocktrader15 · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Got anything for tonight?

Uman · Answer

nice work Pack&#xA;Had Rublev as well

packersbackers · Answer

Thanks guys...lets hope for another profitable day

Locked in:

Raonic Lacko Over 3.5 sets (+100)...Milos should be rusty and full of errors...this match could be alot closer than the odds suggest

Chardy ML -125....Sandgren to win a 3 out of 5 set match isnt likely in my opinion...give me the grizzled Slam player with experience at these odds every single time when playing a career challenger circuit player making a rare Slam appearance

Haase / Struff / Fognini ML parlay ( -110)

TheComeback_Kid · Answer

Pack, any insight in the Haase line drop from -440 to -290??

Mike258 · Answer

Any insight as to why a lot of websites like Struff to have major problems tonight

SamLangford · Answer

&#xA;The Asian players like Kwon live on these outdoor hard courts. He&#x27;s 104-58 career on this surface compared to Struff being a career 34-40 on this surface. That&#x27;s one reason.

Mike258 · Answer

Looks like my -5.5 is screwed then. Thnaks for the reply.

SamLangford · Answer

&#xA;Not necessarily. Big difference between the level of talent Kwon faces on the Asian Challengers tour and Struff faces playing 90% of matches on the ATP tour. Struff should win but I can see someone using his garbage record on outdoor hard courts against him. He&#x27;s also never gotten out of the first round at this event either. 0-3 here career. Kwon never played this event before.&#xA;Tennisexplorer is where I&#x27;m getting these numbers from. It&#x27;s a useful site.

packersbackers · Answer

Lacko

BIGDTITLE · Answer

Lacko baby!!  Thanks for that gem PB.  Spot on sir.

SamLangford · Answer

Nice, call!

packersbackers · Answer

Thanks BigD for the good karma...i am happy going quality rather than quantity for the next few days...tennis is my passion and love it perhaps too much, however with any given match pitentially taking 4 hours, its a bit too much for me with family and work obligations...so far so good.

Wolf...i agree witb you 100%...AO is a great event and there are always upsets here more than any other Slam...however im in the Eastern Time zone so its hard on me to get fully involved.

packersbackers · Answer

Sam...nice to see you back in the tennis scene Post #21 is very true regarding the overall talent level on the Asian circuit vs what Struff faces

Australian Open 2018 - The Official People's Champ Thread

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