What about this angle for MLB betting?

By itself this angle may work - but I think it probably should be incorporated into an over-arching handicapping approach.

Premise:

Identify teams that are HOT and playing teams that are COLD.

Easier said then done.  So I ventured to identify HOT teams playing COLD teams.

Essentially it tries to find matchups using the teams L10 and L7 stats where:
A good hitting team is facing a lousy pitching team.
A good pitching team is facing a lousy hitting team.
One team has a very leaky bullpen.
Other team has a very good bullpen

So I automated the process and here it is.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbR2ZQeGxIRnNYUmc

I would like to get your thoughts and feedback on the theory.  So what do you guys think?

I like it. You really have to be in sinc with what's going on across the league to have a good feel before its too late.  This is one of the ways that I make my selections. An example this weekend was the white sox. They are playing well lately and were against a pitching depleted Toronto who had somehow been staying above water with their good offense. The sox at home are hot and are also a solid team. My guess was they would take 3 of 4 or at least 2.  I really like this approach, discipline here would be huge. The problem I have is playing too many series other than the 1 or 2 that fit this theory.

Yeah - supereagle - I have that same discipline problem which usually gets me into trouble -

I still think the theory behind it needs to be included in an over-arching handicapping process - but it's possible that just using the core concepts included in the spreadsheet could yield positive results in a 2 game chase.

Especially if looking for undervalued dogs.

Another weakness I have is taking dogs. I just cant pull the trigger on em.

Maybe we can use this thread to discuss what series we feel meet the criteria, narrow down, and come up with quality plays together.

Sure - sounds good - I put the spreadsheet together to use for the 2nd half of the season. Really to incorporate into a larger handicapping process - but any feedback that will improve its efficiency or provide insight that was previously overlooked would be helpful

Now - i would rather wait a few games since all teams were off for the all star break - and there is no gaurentee that their L10 streak will continue after the break BUT....

Batting Rank

DET - 2

BAL - 30

Pitching Rank

DET - 15

BAL - 26

So if DET remains hot and BAL remains cold - a good play today for a 2 game chase would be DET

 

DET made it look easy - no need to chase with a "A" game win.

Batting Rank

TEX - 26
SEA - 29

Pitching Rank

TEX - 7
SEA - 5

Good pitching on both sides at the moment versus lousy hitting - mean UNDER

TEX / SEA UNDER 6.5

I know if you lose by 10 runs or just by 1 - it doesn't matter - a loss is a loss.

But is it me or a loss by 1/2 of a run just stings just a bit more....