Underdog System ( using ideas of Plus Money System ) + Totals system

Well i've been thinking about the Plus Money System for a while now and I like some principles but not all of them. That's why I've written some rules for myself and will give it a go in here!

As money managment system I will not use a doubling up method. I don't like betting 30% on dogs per night. I will use the labouchere method. I know 400.000 $ in one year MLB is a very very huge income but who is so crazy to bet a D bet for 6% of his bankroll ( after he already lost % ) on a team like Baltimore @ the Red Sox ?

I like the idea of making a dog out of a fav using the Run Line. And there is some value in home and away dogs but we have to pick our moments.

I will also use a totals system I'm liking so far and also using labouchere! So hope it will work out for us!

I will only make 1 thread as all plays will be in here.

STARTING BANKROLL: 5.000$

1st System: UNDERDOG SYSTEM

I will use 2 Labouchere models to test what's most profitable and with how many risk. So Model 1 is a "to win" model and model 2 is a "to risk" model

LA Angels -1,5 ( +131 )
Saunders + Wolf must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 38.16$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 65.5$

Labby model 1:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

Labby model 2:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

2nd System: TOTALS SYSTEM

I will use 2 Labouchere models to test what's most profitable and with how many risk. So Model 1 is a "to win" model and model 2 is a "to risk" model

Milwaukee @LA Angels OVER 10 ( -119 )
Saunders + Wolf must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 59.50$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 42.02$

Baltimore @ San Francisco UNDER 7.5 ( -106 ) Tillman + Sanchez must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 53$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 47.17 $

Toronto @ San Diego UNDER 6.5 (+101)
Marcum + Garland must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 49.50$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 50.50$

Labby model 1:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

Labby model 2:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

How does the total system work?

I like the idea with the Plus Money!!!

Well I don't have it completely sorted it out yet.

BUT here is what I don't like from the Plus Money system:

- The money managment: 1,5 - 3 - 4,5 - 6% at risk
- Betting on teams like Baltimore on the road vs teams like Boston or Tampa Bay,...
- Strictly holding on to an odds range like +135 to +195 or -105 to -140
- Betting on teams but with a lot of game in between isn't the way to go so I would stick to 1 or maybe 2 series. Ex A game is the 2nd game of a series and b game 3th game of a series, C game 2nd game of next series

What I do like about Plus Money System:

- making dogs of favs tnx to the Run Line
- betting on dogs as well as home as away.

Improvements:

- Laboucher money managment
- looking at last 3 or 5 games to see who's hot and can be played as -1,5 Run Line fav and who is playable as home or away dog.
- Maybe looking at starters ERA + WHIP for the comming series

I agree Online. I've been testing out the Plus Money System with the 2008 season. I started off with $4,000 and am almost halfway thru July and my bankroll is $600.

It's a pain to go thru, but I wanna see what this system has to offer and maybe see what can be tweaked.

I really wish mlb1234 would help us out more with details and maybe even provide us with his data from past seasons. Cuz who knows, maybe I'm kinda missing some details on the rules?

I've just looked at the numbers here on covers.com at the Trend section.

ATS home fav = sth like 42%
ATS Away fav = sth like 40%

So we just can't take every Fav on the run line blindly!

So here are the numbers for this season:

Home Favs on the Run Line: 260 - 361 = 41,8%
Away Favs on the Run Line: 127 - 199 = 38,9 %

These numbers can be a bit different as I use Accuscore.com for the lines.but it won't be a lot different.

Next aspect:

Betting on the away fav run line if:
Away Favs of >-200 ; -150 : 25 - 33 = 43,1%
Away favs of -150 ; -130 : 31 - 46 = 40,2 %
Away favs of -130 ; -105 : 59 - 94 = 38,5 %

Betting on the home fav run line if:
Home Favs of -250 ; -190: 42 - 52 = 44,6%
Home Favs of -190 ; -150: 84 - 95 = 46,9%
Home Favs of -150 ; -105: 135 - 209 = 39,2%

We will now take a look at all the played series so far:

First the normal underdogs. So the Money Line underdogs:

Away dogs netween +300 and +200: 6 - 6 (50%)
Away dogs between +250 and +200: 14 - 30 (31,8%)
Away dogs between +200 and +150: 66 - 108 (37,9%)
Away dogs between +150 and +100: 157 - 235 (40%) 

Home dogs between +100 and +150: 118 - 123 (48,9%)
Home dogs between +150 and +200: 14 - 21 ( 40%)
Home dogs between +200 and + 300: 1 - 2 (50%)

So for now the best thing you can do is betting the home favs between -150 and -250 on the run line and betting the home underdogs between +100 and +150

Combined record: 244 - 270

BUT favs of -150 and bigger aren't dogs on the run line in most cases...