Posted:
#26
last week all underdogs won so wait until all the favorites win.
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TIPS FOR GETTING HALF TIME 70% WINS RATIO
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by yncibrc:
I learned this theory from an old gentleman from Ceasar a long time ago. Here is the main reason behind the add 6. The teaser bet is a sucker bet. If you check the point of most the game, it's only cover 1 way. Therefore he notice that in the first half if the favorite doesn't cover the teaser bet 70% they don't cover the 2nd half. If you check the monday night game from the beginning of the season until now it's 100%. This system also work for over and under but it's a little more complicated to explain. Here is another tip if you like to bet full game, just ask yourself this question can team X beat team Y point spread + 6 in the first half.
Example this coming sunday
can SF beat Raiders by 6.5+6=12.5(13) in the first half?
I learned this theory from an old gentleman from Ceasar a long time ago. Here is the main reason behind the add 6. The teaser bet is a sucker bet. If you check the point of most the game, it's only cover 1 way. Therefore he notice that in the first half if the favorite doesn't cover the teaser bet 70% they don't cover the 2nd half. If you check the monday night game from the beginning of the season until now it's 100%. This system also work for over and under but it's a little more complicated to explain. Here is another tip if you like to bet full game, just ask yourself this question can team X beat team Y point spread + 6 in the first half.
Example this coming sunday
can SF beat Raiders by 6.5+6=12.5(13) in the first half?
If you apply this theory ,then BELIEVE Fav team can beat the point spread in the 1st Half + 6 more pts ...then why bother bet Full game ( chance of back door cover ) JUST WAGER 1st HALF ONLY !!!
Another word : TAKE ALL FAV in the 1st Half - when the FG Fav by 7 or less ...70% + winner(S)
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Posted:
#29
Your theory worked great last week because a ton of underdogs covered. It may even be doing well so far this season. But I will bet extremely large $$$ that you cannot successfully backtest your theory to a 70% success rate (or anywhere close) over a minimum of a 5 year period against an accurate database. Guaranteed.
And your notion that most full games don't fall within 6 points of the spread either way is bullshit too, besides the fact that it doesn't necessarily correlate to your 2nd half bets.
And your notion that most full games don't fall within 6 points of the spread either way is bullshit too, besides the fact that it doesn't necessarily correlate to your 2nd half bets.
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Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:
Your theory worked great last week because a ton of underdogs covered. It may even be doing well so far this season. But I will bet extremely large $$$ that you cannot successfully backtest your theory to a 70% success rate (or anywhere close) over a minimum of a 5 year period against an accurate database. Guaranteed.
And your notion that most full games don't fall within 6 points of the spread either way is bullshit too, besides the fact that it doesn't necessarily correlate to your 2nd half bets.
Your theory worked great last week because a ton of underdogs covered. It may even be doing well so far this season. But I will bet extremely large $$$ that you cannot successfully backtest your theory to a 70% success rate (or anywhere close) over a minimum of a 5 year period against an accurate database. Guaranteed.
And your notion that most full games don't fall within 6 points of the spread either way is bullshit too, besides the fact that it doesn't necessarily correlate to your 2nd half bets.
please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.
out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game. My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point. Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.
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Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by yncibrc:
please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.
out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game. My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point. Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.
please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.
out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game. My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point. Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.
He posts about a longterm sample size like 5 years, you retort with "look at last week".
Unreal.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#34
[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]
He posts about a longterm sample size like 5 years, you retort with "look at last week".
Unreal.
why do I have to go back 5 years. If you ask me to go back 5 weeks then you can check it yourself. Either you believe it or not I don't gain 1 cent. I just want to share it with others so if it's help to make a good educated pick then more power to you.
| Wager Type: | Spread (or run line) |
| Wager Status: | Win |
| Risk / To Win Amount: | 420.00 / 400.00 (USD) Accepted 10/9/2010 9:34 PM - EST |
| Won: | 400.00 |
| Amount Paid: | 400.00 |
| Sport / Period: | NCAA Football / 2nd Half |
| Selection: | East Carolina 10/9/2010 7:30:01 PM - (EST) +4 -105 |
| Wager Type: | Total |
| Wager Status: | Win |
| Risk / To Win Amount: | 315.00 / 300.00 (USD) Accepted 10/10/2010 0:16 AM - EST |
| Won: | 300.00 |
| Amount Paid: | 300.00 |
| Sport / Period: | NCAA Football / 2nd Half |
| Selection: | San Jose State/Nevada 10/9/2010 10:30:01 PM - (EST) Under 31½ -105 |
| Wager Type: | Total |
| Wager Status: | Win |
| Risk / To Win Amount: | 550.00 / 500.00 (USD) Accepted 10/10/2010 2:16 PM - EST |
| Won: | 500.00 |
| Amount Paid: | 500.00 |
| Sport / Period: | NFL Football / 2nd Half |
| Selection: | Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts 10/10/2010 1:00:01 PM - (EST) Under 21½ -110 |
| ager Type: | Total |
| Wager Status: | Win |
| Risk / To Win Amount: | 460.00 / 400.00 (USD) Accepted 10/10/2010 2:37 PM - EST |
| Won: | 400.00 |
| Amount Paid: | 400.00 |
| Sport / Period: | NFL Football / 2nd Half |
| Selection: | Chicago Bears/Carolina Panthers 10/10/2010 1:00:01 PM - (EST) Under 16 -115 |
| Wager Type: | Spread (or run line) |
| Wager Status: | Win |
| Risk / To Win Amount: | 550.00 / 500.00 (USD) Accepted 10/10/2010 5:41 PM - EST |
| Won: | 500.00 |
| Amount Paid: | 500.00 |
| Sport / Period: | NFL Football / 2nd Half |
| Selection: | Arizona Cardinals 10/10/2010 4:05:01 PM - (EST) +4 -110 |
| Wager Type: | Total |
| Wager Status: | Win |
| Risk / To Win Amount: | 550.00 / 500.00 (USD) Accepted 10/10/2010 6:07 PM - EST |
| Won: | 500.00 |
| Amount Paid: | 500.00 |
| Sport / Period: | NFL Football / 2nd Half |
| Selection: | San Diego Chargers/Oakland Raiders 10/10/2010 4:15:01 PM - (EST) Over 21½ -110 |
| Wager Type: | Total |
| Wager Status: | Win |
| Risk / To Win Amount: | 525.00 / 500.00 (USD) Accepted 10/10/2010 9:59 PM - EST |
| Won: | 500.00 |
| Amount Paid: | 500.00 |
| Sport / Period: | NFL Football / 2nd Half |
| Selection: | Philadelphia Eagles/San Francisco 49ers 10/10/2010 8:20:01 PM - (EST) Over 20½ -105 |
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by thewild:
last week all underdogs won so wait until all the favorites win.
last week all underdogs won so wait until all the favorites win.
favorite did cover last week
bears 17-3 1st half /2nd half 6-3 spread was -2.5
detroit 24-6 1st half /2nd half 20-0 spread was -3
by looking at the first half score I get an edge for my 2nd half choice.
0
Posted:
#36
Im happy you posted your theory, I am sure there are people who will try it out.
The question is - Is this supported by statistically significant data, or is this a pattern in the randomness?
If you choose not to engage in that discussion that is your right, but these things are posted 1000 times a day here - and I (amongst others) are very interested in theories that are backed up with data.
Maybe this one works when tested longterm, maybe it doesnt - but dont dismiss the discussion of it - because it is the only way to verify the validity.
But GL with this, and let us know how it works out.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by yncibrc:
please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.
out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game. My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point. Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.
please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.
out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game. My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point. Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.
What about also...
GB -2.5 (lost by 3)
Balt +8.5 (lost by 14)
This "theory" only worked out so well because so many dogs happened to win SU this week. That is not typically the case.
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Posted:
#39
it will be hard for me to go back and give you the data. I don't remember all the 2nd half spread to show but if you start follow it from this week then you will see. We are all here to share information to get a better edge. Either win or lose its still extra information for you to gain so you can make a better bet. I have been playing for 10 years and I haven't had a losing season. This year is really tough for everyone since favorite don't cover but for me it doesn't affect my betting since I base my pick on the total of the first half.
Most people got influence on their pick because of point spread and their favor team.
At first when I learned this tips I was skeptical and thought it was a coincident but it proof to me time and time again.
Most people got influence on their pick because of point spread and their favor team.
At first when I learned this tips I was skeptical and thought it was a coincident but it proof to me time and time again.
0
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:
Unless you can verify the accuracy of this over a long period with actual database results against an accurate spread, I'm not buying it. One week proves nothing.
Besides, last week what about:
Atlanta (down 7-6 went on to cover)
Indy (up just 6-3 at the half covered the 2H)
SF (down at the half, but covered -3 2H)
Just off the top of my head. I want to see this back-tested against every game for at least 5 years against an accurate DB. I'd bet big $$ that it's somewhere between 45-55% win rate.
Unless you can verify the accuracy of this over a long period with actual database results against an accurate spread, I'm not buying it. One week proves nothing.
Besides, last week what about:
Atlanta (down 7-6 went on to cover)
Indy (up just 6-3 at the half covered the 2H)
SF (down at the half, but covered -3 2H)
Just off the top of my head. I want to see this back-tested against every game for at least 5 years against an accurate DB. I'd bet big $$ that it's somewhere between 45-55% win rate.
Just info that he is sharing with us, no one asked you to buy anything.
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Posted:
#43
Thanks for sharing this with the covers community. Glad to hear this theory has worked out well for you over the years.
Lots of questions regarding statistical data to back up your theory. I for one would be interested in seeing how it plays out for the remainder of the year. Sure, dogs have cleaned house this year, but as the season continues, team stats will begin to factor into the lines and the number of dogs covereing will drop IMO.
You should keep this thread updated with results of your plays based on this theory for those like myself, who are interested
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