Thoughts On A Possible MLB System For First 5 Innings

Question

Late night, unable to sleep and thought about a system betting on the top 5 or 10 era pitchers in a chase using the first 5 innings.

In other words, if the #4 ranked pitcher by ERA is pitching, then you would bet on his team to win one unit. If there are more than one top 5 or 10 (haven't determined which might be better) ERA pitchers throwing the same day, then you would just run multiple chase. I would use the rotation numbers or ERA ranking to determine which game to play on which chase. If the pitcher's team covers the first five innings, then you win one unit. If they do not, then you could either wait until that pitcher pitches again or you could just use the next top 5/10 pitcher (my probable preference) to play game two of the chase. I would chase for up to three or four games.

Any thoughts...good or bad?

Also, is there a site where I can find the pitchers daily ERA ranking for previous season to backtest?

flwareagle · Answer

Late night, unable to sleep and thought about a system betting on the top 5 or 10 era pitchers in a chase using the first 5 innings.

In other words, if the #4 ranked pitcher by ERA is pitching, then you would bet on his team to win one unit. If there are more than one top 5 or 10 (haven't determined which might be better) ERA pitchers throwing the same day, then you would just run multiple chase. I would use the rotation numbers or ERA ranking to determine which game to play on which chase. If the pitcher's team covers the first five innings, then you win one unit. If they do not, then you could either wait until that pitcher pitches again or you could just use the next top 5/10 pitcher (my probable preference) to play game two of the chase. I would chase for up to three or four games.

Any thoughts...good or bad?

Also, is there a site where I can find the pitchers daily ERA ranking for previous season to backtest?

Danrules24 · Answer

Just a couple of thoughts...&#xD;&#xA;You are probably looking at high juice always betting on the best pitchers. &#xD;&#xA;ERA is not the best indicator for pitchers, I rarely look at ERA as it doesn&#x27;t tell the whole story. You may want to look at Sagarin rankings instead. &#xD;&#xA;I just ran a test on Kershaw and he went 18-5 on F5 last year. I wonder if you target top pitchers going into the year and ran on a labby line if that would be good. Kershaw, King Felix, Wainwright etc..

Thoughts On A Possible MLB System For First 5 Innings

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