Posted:
#1
I am back in town and I am going to disclose the system and an example that way we can all calculate and post the failed system picks. Let's work together. It can be time consuming.
The Failed System
Views: 1140
Posts: 13
Posted:
#2
Example: USC & Arizona St for Sat 2/25
USC last 3 games:
70-54
64-54
59-47
Arz St last games:
66-57
72-50
77-69
In Excel it is easier to input the scores and have a formula that adds up the total scores.
List the total scores....
124 123
118 122
106 146
Let's say 124 is cell A1 and 123 is cell B1 in Excel.
A1 B1
A2 B2
A3 B3
In C1 enter the over/under total for the match-up which was 113.5
Here are the formulas you need....
#1: =FORECAST(C1,A1:A3,B1:B3) ***Calculation = D1***
#2: =GROWTH(C1,A1:A3,B1:B3) ***Calculation = D2***
#3: =MEDIAN(C1,A1:A3,B1:B3,D1,D2) ***Calculation = D3***
#4: =AVERAGE(A1:A3,B1:B3) ***Calculation = D4***
#5: =KURT(C1,D1,D2,D3,D4)
#6: =AVERAGE(D1,D2,D3,D4)
IMPORTANT MESSAGE AFTER YOU INPUT THE ABOVE DATA!
a. The system calculates the Over if all #1 - #4 & #6 are Over the Over/Under total and #5 is a positive (+) number.
b. The system calculates the Under if all #1 - #4 & #6 are Under the Over/Under total and #5 is a negative (-) number.
The USC / Arz St calculation was Over and the end result was Under which means the faders win. If you are not coming up with this calculated result then you are doing something wrong. Ask questions so we are all on the same page.
Posted:
#3
A second part of the system is to take the Average of A1:A3 vs. the Average of B1:B3.
Whatever that average calculation is needs to be read like this...
Let's say Team A avg = 120
Let's say Team B avg = 140
The system reads as Team B should be favored by 20 [140 minus 120].
Let's say Las Vegas set the line as Team A favored -6.
The system is set up to read that since Team B is not favored and should be then Team B is the pick. This is why when I posted the fades I was posting the favorite.
One very important piece of information for the side bet part of the system is that the calculation has to be where the calculated team that should be favored is indeed NOT favored.
Ask questions now if you need to. It's a lot of information and when I received this system through email I had to read it 10 times and ask questions. The guy who sent it quit betting for the system because it lost and he said it was a failure.
Posted:
#4
My bad, let me re-state this sentence....
This is why when I posted the fades I was posting the favorite.
This is why when I posted the system for sides I was posting the favorite. Detroit @ Cleveland on 2/21 calculated Detroit as 195 and Cleveland as 189.3. The system says Detroit should be favored by 6 but Cleveland is favored. The system says Las Vegas must know something so the pick is Cleveland.
Posted:
#9
Pit/Lou is today, Sunday. I typed Saturday...sorry, long night.
Also for Sunday, the formula is calculating that N. Illinois should be favored by 3. The line in Las Vegas is C. Michigan -10. The guy who created this system said he believes Las Vegas knows something and that is why he goes with the favorite in this situation.
System = C. Mich
Fade = N. Illinois
Posted:
#12
Quote Originally Posted by Richie_TX:
Thanks retie_early for teh detailed post.
Question: I set up the excel sheet but I am getting a negative number for the Kurt formula for the USC at Ariz St example game...
You are 100% correct. That was my fault. I probably took the final score of USC/Arz St rather than exclude it.
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