I think the consensus among professional cappers is to risk Y to win 1 unit when betting on favorites. (rather than risking 1 unit to win X)
My question is: Why is that more optimal than risking 1 unit to win X? I'm sure it has something to do with the juice but I don't quite get it. Keep in mind I would bet 1 unit to win X when betting dogs.
IMO a play is either +EV or it isn't. So by risking more than 1 unit to win 1 unit, aren't you just essentially increasing your units when you bet favorites?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I think the consensus among professional cappers is to risk Y to win 1 unit when betting on favorites. (rather than risking 1 unit to win X)
My question is: Why is that more optimal than risking 1 unit to win X? I'm sure it has something to do with the juice but I don't quite get it. Keep in mind I would bet 1 unit to win X when betting dogs.
IMO a play is either +EV or it isn't. So by risking more than 1 unit to win 1 unit, aren't you just essentially increasing your units when you bet favorites?
Disregard the wisecracks, Prof. But it is your choice to either risk units or bet to win units. Either way you should gauge the amount you RISK as a function of your bankroll, which you have predetermined. So if you want to RISK 4% of your BR today, as an example, then you tailor your unit size to fit that 4%. I think some Covers brothers and sisters miss this point and overbet their BR when they bet a fav to win 1 unit IF they haven't considered their risk-of-ruin threshold. If it costs 1.5 units to bet a fav and that is still within the acceptable ROR range, then it's not a problem.
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Disregard the wisecracks, Prof. But it is your choice to either risk units or bet to win units. Either way you should gauge the amount you RISK as a function of your bankroll, which you have predetermined. So if you want to RISK 4% of your BR today, as an example, then you tailor your unit size to fit that 4%. I think some Covers brothers and sisters miss this point and overbet their BR when they bet a fav to win 1 unit IF they haven't considered their risk-of-ruin threshold. If it costs 1.5 units to bet a fav and that is still within the acceptable ROR range, then it's not a problem.
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