Some of my MLB Strategies

I find I do better if I make a plan every year betting on sports. Meaning I figure out  how I'm gonna approach the year and then stick with it throughout the year. I find that when I jump ship and try to grab the next best thing I usually have a losing year. As part of my approach this year I'm going to share some (hopefully most) of the systems and approaches I use on here. It's more of a tool to help me get focused as if I explain to others what I am doing it helps to clarify it to me also.

That said I am calling this system 1.

The play here is to bet on any road team in the first game of a series that is coming off a loss. The plays don't start until after May 1st and continue through the end of the season. All is based on $100 plays. (As a note while the 2001 season is included I noticed that it does not include data for the Cincinnati Reds. I don't know why and just haven't had time to fix it)

I will break down a few of the different approaches and show the one I'm using.

1999    126    93    58%     $1,323.27     1.91
2000    123    83    60%     $2,308.44     1.88
2001    98    70    58%     $1,063.93     1.87
2002    151    82    65%     $3,819.82     1.84
2003    127    100    56%     $778.23     1.89
2004    126    112    53%     $(1,531.81)    1.86
2005    108    104    51%     $(1,637.14)    1.83
2006    135    93    59%     $1,668.37     1.83
2007    128    108    54%     $(724.76)    1.81
2008    117    95    55%     $(47.22)    1.82

1239-940 (57%)with a profit of $7021.13. This betting into an average line of about -120.

If we add in that the home team must be coming off a win.

1999    50    36    0.581395349     $172.05     1.85
2000    48    36    0.571428571     $584.40     1.87
2001    36    28    0.5625     $(147.67)    1.86
2002    72    33    0.685714286     $1,975.11     1.77
2003    62    42    0.596153846     $1,104.05     1.89
2004    56    42    0.571428571     $216.93     1.81
2005    46    40    0.534883721     $(48.20)    1.83
2006    57    38    0.6     $643.18     1.83
2007    63    41    0.605769231     $884.68     1.79
2008    45    49    0.478723404     $(1,479.93)    1.78
  
535-385  (58%) with a profit       $3,904.61   and an average line of -120. Not much improvement.

How about back to any road team off a loss but no bets over -150

1999    87    78    53%     $871.33     2.04
2000    84    73    54%     $1,100.27     1.98
2001    65    54    55%     $737.15     2.00
2002    84    55    60%     $3,182.65     2.07
2003    80    70    53%     $1,297.41     2.07
2004    85    83    51%     $(653.32)    1.99
2005    68    76    47%     $(995.10)    1.97
2006    93    74    56%     $1,288.24     1.94
2007    82    83    50%     $(752.68)    1.93
2008    78    71    52%     $102.28     1.93

Not to bad. 806-717 (53%) with a $6178 profit over 10 years betting into an average line of about even money.

Same thing now except no plays over -130.

1999    67    63    52%     $953.49     2.12
2000    58    55    51%     $1,077.50     2.09
2001    46    43    52%     $477.52     2.09
2002    63    43    59%     $2,896.35     2.18
2003    68    59    54%     $1,541.31     2.14
2004    59    64    48%     $(556.88)    2.10
2005    56    57    50%     $62.65     2.04
2006    63    49    56%     $1,630.01     2.04
2007    61    58    51%     $253.54     2.01
2008    60    45    57%     $1,420.43     2.02


601-536 (53%) with a $9755 profit over 10 years betting into a line of +108 on average. Only one losing season. This I like and this is the one I'm gonna play this year.

For my satisfaction I did one more calculation on what I think would be the tightest play possible.

Team coming off a road loss and series loss, going against a home team off of a win and series win.

1999    17    9    65%     $718.08     2.07
2000    13    10    57%     $632.29     2.17
2001    7    7    50%     $(98.94)    2.09
2002    17    6    74%     $1,275.03     2.08
2003    18    12    60%     $1,009.08     2.17
2004    11    11    50%     $(6.38)    2.07
2005    15    6    71%     $1,037.36     2.06
2006    17    8    68%     $819.68     2.01
2007    18    14    56%     $351.02     1.97
2008    10    12    45%     $(215.96)    2.00

143-95 (60%) with a $5521 profit over 10 years. Barely a play a week here. A little to restrictive for me.

So to wrap it up, I am going t play and Road team in the first game of the series,coming off a loss in which the home team line is not over -130. My expectation is a return of 10% to 30% of bankroll based on 2% bets.

Thoughts.......

nice

Not over -130 isn't very clear. I mean that is the most I would lay. So -130 is okay, -131 is bad.

This is not a chase. I simply bet the first game of the series if it falls into the parameters listed above and move on win or lose.

Do you have a limit on the other side, so for instance not betting a team that is a bigger dog than +150?  I was running through some of the past seasons real quick and it seemed as it if wasn't worth betting the +200 to +300 because of a lot of losses.  Just wondering if you had looked that this yet...

Be specific please. I'll look into it.

Good question. I had never thought of this so I decided to do the research. I chose to look at nothing over +190. Here are the records if you only bet with the above criteria and only bet if you were getting +191 or better.

1    3    25.0%     $(70.00)    3.07
2    1    66.7%     $355.00     3.28
2    2    50.0%     $245.00     3.45
3    4    42.9%     $310.00     3.43
2    1    66.7%     $292.00     2.95
0    5    0.0%     $(500.00)    3.12
1    0    100.0%     $200.00     3.00
2    1    66.7%     $314.00     3.02
0    0    #DIV/0!     $-       #DIV/0!
1    1    50.0%     $91.00     2.93

You can see there were not that many plays. Interesting thing, if you didn't play these games you eliminated the only losing season.
Thanks for asking. I personally think that with the small number of plays I am not going to add this criteria. I can handle the risk of a small loss against the upside of these games.

Not with these bets. I do with a couple of other approaches, but with this one I straight bet, usually 2% of bankroll

 

I think you misunderstood me...

I was saying to make your range of games from -130 to +150 and only bet those games in that range. 

Here ya go. I don't think t improves things very much.



1999    60    53    10%     $753.49
2000    51    51    -12%     $195.50
2001    44    38    23%     $532.52
2002    56    34    16%     $2,426.35
2003    58    49    4%     $839.31
2004    56    52    28%     $133.12
2005    50    54    -17%     $(657.35)
2006    57    46    -10%     $880.01
2007    59    57    -15%     $50.54
2008    58    42    17%     $1,346.43

This is if you  play against a  Road team in the first game of the series, if the road team is coming off a loss and the home team line is between -130 and +150.

So you totally flipped it to betting on the home team now?  I thought this started off as betting on the road team in the first game of the series.  Sorry Im a little confused.  So you are betting on the home team in a series where the road team had a loss in the previous game?

I'm sorry if my earlier post was confusing. This was always a bet against the road team coming off the loss. I reread my fist post and see where the confusion was. I apologize.

Okay, it makes more sense now.  I was getting some bad numbers betting on the road team. 

Interesting read. Much appreciated! 

So to clarify.... you're betting ON the home team when that scenario occurs, correct?   As for the less than -130 criteria... is that opening line, or just before the gametime.?  I assume you're using the closing line numbers for research, so I guess you mean "less than -130 just before gametime", yes?

 

You bet Ryan.


The play here is to bet on any home team in the first game of a series if the road team played the day before and lost. You will not lay more than -130. You will not chase.


If there are any questions let me know.