Power Rankings compared to Vegas lines

A method that I've always used when I do my handicapping is to compare the power rankings to the vegas line.  I'm curious if anyone else has ever done this to determine value.

What I do is make my own line with the power rankings first.  Lets use one of today's college football games as an example.  Clemson visits Miami Florida at 3:30 today.

As of right now Miami has a power ranking of -14.68
Clemson has a power ranking of -5.08
Subtract Clemson's from Miami's and Miami would be favored by 9.60 on a neutral field.  The power rankings suggest 3 additional points for home field advantage.  Therefore the final power ranking spread would be Miami -12.60.

The opening Vegas line on this game was Miami -7.  One would think that there is significant value in playing Miami.  I like to look at it from a different angle though in that it's a sucker play.  Here's why...

On the website that I visit https://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/ it appears that 82% of bettors are taking the Hurricanes.  It's my belief that Vegas could have easily gotten 50% on each side by making the spread closer to the power ranking line of Miami -12.

These are the plays that I make whenever there is a point spread involved.  I've not ever done any tracking with this but it's always seemed to be a good way to gauge the sucker plays. 

Has anyone else ever toyed around with this option?

Here would be a list of today's games.  The team is listed is the one that would be bet on.  The first number is what their covers power ranking spread would be.  The second number is the opening line according to Vegas.  The third number is the variance of how much they differ.  Please keep in mind I'm not posting these to suggest that you bet on them.  I'm simply posting them for tracking purposes.

Fresno St       
-5.33    -24    18.67
California       
-20.50    -34    13.50
Texas Tech   
-11.07    -23    11.93
Oklahoma   
+3.87    -8    11.87
So Miss       
-10.28    -21    10.72
Central Fla   
-0.39    -11    10.61
UNLV       
+5.63    -4.5    10.13
Ohio U       
+0.60    -9    9.60
Nevada       
-4.31    -12.5    8.19
Purdue       
-2.35    -10    7.65
Michigan St   
+8.26    +1    7.26
Midd Tenn  
 -12.19    -19    6.81
USC       
-13.46    -19.5    6.04
Clemson       
+12.60    +7    5.60
Texas      
 -8.91    -14.5    5.59
LSU       
-5.95    -11    5.05
Kentucky       
-11.97    -17    5.03
Vanderbilt   
+16.29    +11.5    4.79
C Michigan   
-3.22    -8    4.78
Washington   
+11.75    +7    4.75
Louisville       
+21.74    +17    4.74
Arkansas       
+10.45    +5    4.55
Kansas St       
+1.01    -3.5    4.51
Notre Dame   
-5.25    -9.5    4.25
Marshall       
-4.78    -8.5    3.72
Ark St       
-5.98    -9.5    3.52
Boise St       
-20.79    -24    3.21
Oklahoma St  
 -7.36    -10.5    3.14
Wake Forest   
+4.30    +1.5    2.80
Air Force       
+11.67    +9    2.67
Pittsburgh   
-4.57    -7    2.43
E Michigan   
+6.91    +4.5    2.41
Virginia       
+6.88    +4.5    2.38
Minnesota       
+19.14    +17    2.14
Duke      
 -5.89    -8    2.11
Arizona       
-7.49    -9.5    2.01
Northwestern  
 -3.53    -5.5    1.98
Connecticut   
+7.86    +6    1.86
Florida      
 -20.40    -22    1.60
Colorado St   
-7.28    -8.5    1.22
SMU       
+17.67    +16.5    1.17
Arizona St   
+8.05    +7    1.05
Utah St       
+2.50    +1.5    1.00
Michigan    
+4.99    +4    0.99
Alabama      
 -15.61    -16.5    0.89
Nebraska       
-18.61    -19.5    0.89
TCU       
+0.72    pick    0.72
Miami Ohio   
+13.81    +13.5    0.31
Buffalo       
+4.27    +4    0.27
Toledo       
+1.61    +1.5    0.11
North Texas   
+17.53    +17.5    0.03
LA Lafayette   
+3.03    +3    0.03
Syracuse       
-8.98    -9    0.02

power rankings are useless until 3/4 of the season is over.

sagarin has new orleans -29 or so over the rams.

would you take the rams and 29????

Did you read the entire post?  That's not my objective here.

Saturday Results

18.67 - Fresno St -23.5
13.50 - California -36.5
11.93 - Texas Tech -22
11.87 - Oklahoma -8.5
10.72 - Southern Miss -20.5
10.61 - Central Florida -10
10.13 - UNLV -1
9.60 - Ohio U -9.5
8.19 - Nevada -16.5
7.65 - Purdue -10.5
7.26 - Michigan St -2
6.81 - Middle Tennessee -17
6.04 - USC -21
5.60 - Clemson +4
5.59 - Texas -12.5
5.32 - Tulsa -8.5
5.05 - LSU -7.5
5.03 - Kentucky -14
4.79 - Vanderbilt +11.5
4.78 - C Michigan -9.5
4.75 - Washington +9.5
4.74 - Louisville +16
4.55 - Arkansas +5
4.51 - Kansas St -4
4.25 - Notre Dame -7.5
3.72 - Marshall -7
3.52 - Arkansas St -11.5
3.21 - Boise St -25
3.14 - Oklahoma St -7.5
2.80 - Wake Forest +2.5
2.60 - Air Force +8.5
2.43 - Pittsburgh -6.5
2.41 - E Michigan +2.5
2.38 - Virginia +5.5
2.24 - Rutgers -10.5
2.14 - Minnesota +17
2.11 - Duke -4
2.01 - Arizona -7.5
1.98 - Northwestern -4.5
1.86 - Connecticut +8.5
1.70 - North Carolina -2.5
1.60 - Florida -23
1.22 - Colorado St -8.5
1.17 - SMU +16
1.05 - Arizona St +7
1.00 - Utah St -1.5
0.99 - Michigan +3.5
0.89 - Alabama -14
0.89 - Nebraska -20.5
0.72 - Tcu -2.5
0.31 - Miami Ohio +10
0.27 - Buffalo +5.5
0.11 - Toledo -1
0.03 - North Texas +20.5
0.03 - LA Lafayette -3
0.02 - Syracuse -11.5

I consider anything with more than 3 points variance between the two lines to be a pretty solid bet.  If you had bet all the games that were over 3.00 you would have gone 18-10.

Below that is where it gets ugly.  Anything in the range of 2.00-2.99 would have yielded a 5-3-1 record.  Not terrible either.  But anything from 0.01-1.99 would have given you a 5-13 record.

Gonna keep tracking this as the weeks go by.  Will probably post the NFL variances here in a bit.

Variances for NFL Sunday 10/25 and Monday 10/26

9.00 - Dallas Cowboys
8.10 - Carolina Panthers
7.70 - Tampa Bay Bucs
7.60 - Pittsburgh Steelers
6.00 - St Louis Rams
4.40 - Houston Texans
3.00 - New York Giants
1.90 - Chicago Bears
1.50 - Kansas City Chiefs
1.40 - New York Jets
0.80 - New Orleans Saints
0.60 - Green Bay Packers
0.60 - Philadelphia Eagles

9.00 - Dallas Cowboys
8.10 - Carolina Panthers
7.70 - Tampa Bay Bucs
7.60 - Pittsburgh Steelers
6.00 - St Louis Rams
4.40 - Houston Texans
3.00 - New York Giants
1.90 - Chicago Bears
1.50 - Kansas City Chiefs
1.40 - New York Jets
0.80 - New Orleans Saints
0.60 - Green Bay Packers
0.60 - Philadelphia Eagles

2-3-1 so far.  Have a strong the law of averages will pan out for the Cowboys and Panthers though.

Sunday Results...

9.00 - Dallas Cowboys
8.10 - Carolina Panthers
7.70 - Tampa Bay Bucs
7.60 - Pittsburgh Steelers
6.00 - St Louis Rams
4.40 - Houston Texans - PUSH
3.00 - New York Giants
1.90 - Chicago Bears
1.40 - New York Jets
0.80 - New Orleans Saints
0.60 - Green Bay Packers
0.60 - Philadelphia Eagles

So it's 5-5 so far with the monday night game pending.  Not a strong week, but not a bad one.  Just gonna keep tracking things.

Interesting.

10-31-09 Variances...

First number is the power ranking spread, second number is the opening line in vegas and the 3rd number is the variance between the two.  Keep in mind I'm doing the comparison to see which team has the "so called" edge and fading that play.

Nevada        -10.40    -28    17.60   
Ohio St        -24.15    -39.5    15.35   
Arkansas        -21.32    -35    13.68
Ohio        +6.21    -7    13.21
San Diego St    -5.91    -19    13.09
California        +1.58    -7    8.58
Lsu        -25.63    -34    8.37
Texas Tech    +0.46    -7.5    7.96
Troy        -9.11    -17    7.89
Oklahoma    -16.65    -24.5    7.85
Usc        +4.79    -3    7.79
Boise St        -25.42    -32.5    7.08
Nebraska        -5.43    -12.5    7.07
Tcu        -25.53    -32.5    6.97
Fresno St        -9.51    -16    6.49
Notre Dame    -24.69    -30    5.31
Penn St        -8.23    -13.5    5.27
Florida St        -4.80    -10    5.20   
Michigan St    -1.43    -6.5    5.07
Texas        -4.43    -9    4.57
Georgia        +20.40    +16    4.40
No Texas        -5.61    -10    4.39
Akron        +13.47    +9.5    3.97
Tulsa        -12.53    -16.5    3.97
Tennessee        -2.70    -6.5    3.80
Michigan        -4.86    -8.5    3.64
Mississippi    +0.12    -3.5    3.62
Oregon St        -5.06    -8.5    3.44
Texas A&M    -3.18    -6.5    3.32
Virginia        -3.85    -7    3.15
Purdue        +9.60    +6.5    3.10
C Michigan    +6.42    +3.5    3.08
Connecticut    -4.43    -7.5    3.07   
Utep        -4.66    -7.5    2.84
Air Force        -0.69    -3.5    2.81
Navy        -4.33    -7    2.67
Miss St        +6.67    +4    2.67
Miami Ohio    +8.43    +6    2.43
Vanderbilt    +15.56    +13.5    2.06
So Miss        +8.90    +7    1.90
W Michigan    +0.77    -1    1.77
Fla Intl        -2.55    -4    1.45
M Tenn        +0.15    -1    1.15
Iowa        -16.99    -18    1.01
La Tech        +3.80    +3    0.80
Miami        -6.29    -7    0.71
Syracuse        +15.20    +14.5    0.70   
Wyoming        +16.63    +16    0.63
Missouri        -3.65    -4    0.35
Arkansas St    +4.11    +4    0.11