Picks based on mathematics

Hi guys,

Im new on here but wanted to try out a strategy where I will make my picks based on mathematical trends for not only teams (w/l, ats) but also players (points, assists) and over unders.

By posting, i hope it will help me manage my funds and only pick the games based on the highest percentages on a certain night. More details to follow but here are my first picks.

FIRST PICK Bruins / NYI Over 5

Risking 2 units to win 1.03 units

Boston 10-2-4 over 5 goals in last 16 (the 4 games ended at exactly 5 goals)

NYI 10-2-5 over 5 goals in last 17

In matchups between eachother, they have been over in 5 of last 7 (but thats over the normal number which in this case is 5.5)

Im hoping at worst case, they land right on 5.

GL 

Pick #2

NHL - Buf over Toronto

1 Unit to win 0.66 units

My estimated win % for this game is 70%, which results in expected profit of 1.62 units every 10 games. This is based on

Buf 7-3 in last 10

Tor 3-7 in last 10

Leafs have been just horrible and i will bet against them until they win. Buf lost yesterday and even though its a back to back, they really need this win.

Leafs 0-11 at home

Buf has won 15 of last 21 meetings (71%)

GL 

Pick #3

Mil Monta Ellis under 18 pts

1 Unit to win 0.83 units

Ellis has been under this amount in 6 of 7 games since joining his new team and has been more of an assist man. While with GS he was more of a threat but Milwaukee has a balances attack and he has not needed to score. I will take my chances.

GL 

Results: 2-1 (+0.86 units)

Bruins/NYI over 5 WIN 1.03 units

Buf over Toronto LOSE 1 unit

Monta Ellis under 18 WIN 0.83 units