Just something to keep in mind! Tonight's game does NOT meet the parameters of the System I utilize and have posted here the last few weeks. But the "Revenge Factor" as mentioned in that post, is a vital ingredient of it. Keep in mind we are handicapping the "mindsets" of 18-21 year old kids here and not much motivates a football player like revenge. Last week...Cincy went to Uconn with four consecutive wins against them...and got waxed! S Fla went to Louisville having clobbered them last year...and they got the favor returned. MAYBE...just MAYBE..S Florida was looking ahead to the team that waxed their hopes last year...we'll see tonight, but think S Fla. makes a bigtime show tonight. Forget the Cincy "Thurs Home Dog" angle, simply a far superior team with the Bulls here. Revenge is sweet...and pays sweetly under the right circumstances. Think you have them tonight...Good Luck..
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Just something to keep in mind! Tonight's game does NOT meet the parameters of the System I utilize and have posted here the last few weeks. But the "Revenge Factor" as mentioned in that post, is a vital ingredient of it. Keep in mind we are handicapping the "mindsets" of 18-21 year old kids here and not much motivates a football player like revenge. Last week...Cincy went to Uconn with four consecutive wins against them...and got waxed! S Fla went to Louisville having clobbered them last year...and they got the favor returned. MAYBE...just MAYBE..S Florida was looking ahead to the team that waxed their hopes last year...we'll see tonight, but think S Fla. makes a bigtime show tonight. Forget the Cincy "Thurs Home Dog" angle, simply a far superior team with the Bulls here. Revenge is sweet...and pays sweetly under the right circumstances. Think you have them tonight...Good Luck..
Maybe S Fla doesn't believe in paybacks...no excuses here. 100% out-played, out-coached, unprepared, and embarassed! Maybe the most over-rated team and QB I've seen this year..
With that aside I will still stick to my guns as to paybacks, under the right circumstances. 2 games of note (again these are not System plays which I'll post later) Saturday that Coaches and Players have had circled for a year...
1) Virginia went to Miami last year, the last game in the Orange Bowl. On National TV. Not only did they beat the Hurricanes, totally annihilated and embarassed them. 48-ZIP I believe. I hate to go against a hot team but I don't think Randy Shannon will let bygones-be-bygones, take the better defense and the +2 1/2. Payback!
2) Everyone knows what Georgia did last year after scoring on Fla. So does Urban Mayer. Maybe the master revenger in all of college football. This game has already upped to -6 1/2 and will keep going. Gators will roll here...paybacks are hell!
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Maybe S Fla doesn't believe in paybacks...no excuses here. 100% out-played, out-coached, unprepared, and embarassed! Maybe the most over-rated team and QB I've seen this year..
With that aside I will still stick to my guns as to paybacks, under the right circumstances. 2 games of note (again these are not System plays which I'll post later) Saturday that Coaches and Players have had circled for a year...
1) Virginia went to Miami last year, the last game in the Orange Bowl. On National TV. Not only did they beat the Hurricanes, totally annihilated and embarassed them. 48-ZIP I believe. I hate to go against a hot team but I don't think Randy Shannon will let bygones-be-bygones, take the better defense and the +2 1/2. Payback!
2) Everyone knows what Georgia did last year after scoring on Fla. So does Urban Mayer. Maybe the master revenger in all of college football. This game has already upped to -6 1/2 and will keep going. Gators will roll here...paybacks are hell!
A very sharp handicapper once told me that Revenge is only affective at home. This is because the fans feel humiliated as well as the members of the team. Best scenario is Blown out as Fav at home & next game back at home.
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A very sharp handicapper once told me that Revenge is only affective at home. This is because the fans feel humiliated as well as the members of the team. Best scenario is Blown out as Fav at home & next game back at home.
A very sharp handicapper once told me that Revenge is only affective at home. This is because the fans feel humiliated as well as the members of the team. Best scenario is Blown out as Fav at home & next game back at home.
I will go along with fans feeling humiliated but will argue wholeheartedly with your "sharp" handicapper as to a home-only lean. Maybe that was before info was so easily available on the internet. Look at Urban M's road revenge record....
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Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:
A very sharp handicapper once told me that Revenge is only affective at home. This is because the fans feel humiliated as well as the members of the team. Best scenario is Blown out as Fav at home & next game back at home.
I will go along with fans feeling humiliated but will argue wholeheartedly with your "sharp" handicapper as to a home-only lean. Maybe that was before info was so easily available on the internet. Look at Urban M's road revenge record....
Ball St. has been sailing all year, nationally-ranked and a potential BCS Buster. Tonight they get ESPN and a chance to show the nation how good they are (and they are!). Unfortunately they have a revenge-minded NIU team that they beat at NIU last year thanks to 2 timely red-zone TO's. NIU lost at Minny by 4 and lost at Tenn by 4...so they can play on the road. They have similar margins of victory against common opponents, and this has been a visitor betting series last few years. No better payback than getting revenge by busting a BCS buster. TOO many points, I'm riding the Huskies plus + 9 1/2....
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Ball St. has been sailing all year, nationally-ranked and a potential BCS Buster. Tonight they get ESPN and a chance to show the nation how good they are (and they are!). Unfortunately they have a revenge-minded NIU team that they beat at NIU last year thanks to 2 timely red-zone TO's. NIU lost at Minny by 4 and lost at Tenn by 4...so they can play on the road. They have similar margins of victory against common opponents, and this has been a visitor betting series last few years. No better payback than getting revenge by busting a BCS buster. TOO many points, I'm riding the Huskies plus + 9 1/2....
A few games of "payback" have caught my eye this weekend, again they are not system plays, but certainly hit a few angles that I weigh in my method....
Percentages are super-high when you can find a revenging Home Dog playing an undefeated team late in the season. I think there is a lot of value getting 7.5 with Iowa. They've had a week of rest and think that Ohio St. exposed a few Penn St. offensive weaknesses. Joe Pa also had the week off, which scares me a bit. No doubt the better team, but think laying too many points to a tough Iowa team that dismantled Wisc at home...
Linemakers tend to over-emphasize the "last game" knowing that is freshest in the public's eye. Florida St is coming off a tough loss at GaT where a late fumble into the end zone cost them the winning TD. Clemson finally got a win (off a bye week) against a beat-up BC team. The "Bowden Bowl" is a thing of the past with Clemson firing Tommy. Don't think Bobby doesn't have a little added incentive here! Also coming in with Double-Revenge, really look for a little payback here. Lay the 6 pts...
Lastly, who in Vegas really cares about a Tulane-Houston match-up? Houston threw in a dud last week at Marshall and has has an extra few days to stew about it...which can work both ways. I tend to believe they'll overlook a team they ran-up the score on last year (won by 40+) when they have Tulsa on-deck. Tulane hung with LSU for awhile last week, and think they'll get motivated by last year's humiliation. Take the 16.5...
GOOD LUCK!
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A few games of "payback" have caught my eye this weekend, again they are not system plays, but certainly hit a few angles that I weigh in my method....
Percentages are super-high when you can find a revenging Home Dog playing an undefeated team late in the season. I think there is a lot of value getting 7.5 with Iowa. They've had a week of rest and think that Ohio St. exposed a few Penn St. offensive weaknesses. Joe Pa also had the week off, which scares me a bit. No doubt the better team, but think laying too many points to a tough Iowa team that dismantled Wisc at home...
Linemakers tend to over-emphasize the "last game" knowing that is freshest in the public's eye. Florida St is coming off a tough loss at GaT where a late fumble into the end zone cost them the winning TD. Clemson finally got a win (off a bye week) against a beat-up BC team. The "Bowden Bowl" is a thing of the past with Clemson firing Tommy. Don't think Bobby doesn't have a little added incentive here! Also coming in with Double-Revenge, really look for a little payback here. Lay the 6 pts...
Lastly, who in Vegas really cares about a Tulane-Houston match-up? Houston threw in a dud last week at Marshall and has has an extra few days to stew about it...which can work both ways. I tend to believe they'll overlook a team they ran-up the score on last year (won by 40+) when they have Tulsa on-deck. Tulane hung with LSU for awhile last week, and think they'll get motivated by last year's humiliation. Take the 16.5...
2 not-so-good teams going at it tonight at Dix Stadium. One plays offense, no defense. The other plays defense, no offense. Last year, Temple slid by Kent by 10, due primarily to the fact that they put the ball on the carpet 4 times. Hopefully, that won't happen tonight. Give me a revenging home dog that averages almost 6 ypr against a visitor that avgs. only 2 anytime! Also keep in mind that Temple lost its last game in OT...favorites in that role usually struggle. This is NOT a SYSTEM qualifier, but nevertheless has enough value that I'll take a stab at the Golden Flashes + 1.5 on their turf. Good Luck...
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2 not-so-good teams going at it tonight at Dix Stadium. One plays offense, no defense. The other plays defense, no offense. Last year, Temple slid by Kent by 10, due primarily to the fact that they put the ball on the carpet 4 times. Hopefully, that won't happen tonight. Give me a revenging home dog that averages almost 6 ypr against a visitor that avgs. only 2 anytime! Also keep in mind that Temple lost its last game in OT...favorites in that role usually struggle. This is NOT a SYSTEM qualifier, but nevertheless has enough value that I'll take a stab at the Golden Flashes + 1.5 on their turf. Good Luck...
With Kent's "W" last night, Paybacks now at 5-3 with 3 outright dogs. Any systems strategy is primarily searching for 2 things, matchup advantages and value. Certain games pop-up that, while they don't meet the "numerical" qualifier of the System I utilize, I still think they offer tremendous value. If you're looking for the 3 big "paybacks" we've heard about all week (USC, OSU, ND) look elsewhere, I can't make a case for any of them. Here are 2 Saturday plays to consider.
I mentioned last week when offering Utah over TCU, the WAC seems to offer the most obvious home-biased officials of any conference. Certainly held true in that game. In a now "pick-em" game, New Mex limps into Colo St off 3 SU losses. After traveling to Vegas and getting upset. Their final game and on the road, bowl game out of the picture. On the other hand, ColSt has been improving weekly and has double-revenge here. On the road next week, but this their final home game in a tough stadium. Who's got the motivation here?! Grab CSU at "pick", it's gonna go up!
Vandy's coming off a Gator-thrashing and heading into Kentucky, also with double-revenge. Of more magnitude here, last year KY crushed Vandy's hope of "Bowling". Coming off a tough last minute loss to Georgia, think the Wildcatts will have a hard time getting ready for a team they've beaten 6 of last 7. Vandy the better team here, off a tougher schedule. Take the + 4....
GOOD LUCK!!
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With Kent's "W" last night, Paybacks now at 5-3 with 3 outright dogs. Any systems strategy is primarily searching for 2 things, matchup advantages and value. Certain games pop-up that, while they don't meet the "numerical" qualifier of the System I utilize, I still think they offer tremendous value. If you're looking for the 3 big "paybacks" we've heard about all week (USC, OSU, ND) look elsewhere, I can't make a case for any of them. Here are 2 Saturday plays to consider.
I mentioned last week when offering Utah over TCU, the WAC seems to offer the most obvious home-biased officials of any conference. Certainly held true in that game. In a now "pick-em" game, New Mex limps into Colo St off 3 SU losses. After traveling to Vegas and getting upset. Their final game and on the road, bowl game out of the picture. On the other hand, ColSt has been improving weekly and has double-revenge here. On the road next week, but this their final home game in a tough stadium. Who's got the motivation here?! Grab CSU at "pick", it's gonna go up!
Vandy's coming off a Gator-thrashing and heading into Kentucky, also with double-revenge. Of more magnitude here, last year KY crushed Vandy's hope of "Bowling". Coming off a tough last minute loss to Georgia, think the Wildcatts will have a hard time getting ready for a team they've beaten 6 of last 7. Vandy the better team here, off a tougher schedule. Take the + 4....
Purdue dug itself a 20 point hole last year, battled back to tie, finally to lose on a field goal following a series of questionable home-cooking calls. This is Joe Tiller's final home game and although I hate laying points with this type team, simply think his kids will have enough motivation to send their man out on a big win. Lay the 11...
Love the scheduling aspect of a rested Memphis home team against a CFU team that has whipped them 3 yrs in a row. CFU coming in off an OT loss to East Car....followed by a home loss to So Miss...followed by an outright dog win at Marshall last week. A few tough games and due for a letdown after last week, don't think 5 points near enough to cover against a revenging rested Memphis bunch. Lay the 5...
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Worth a peek 11-22-08...
Purdue dug itself a 20 point hole last year, battled back to tie, finally to lose on a field goal following a series of questionable home-cooking calls. This is Joe Tiller's final home game and although I hate laying points with this type team, simply think his kids will have enough motivation to send their man out on a big win. Lay the 11...
Love the scheduling aspect of a rested Memphis home team against a CFU team that has whipped them 3 yrs in a row. CFU coming in off an OT loss to East Car....followed by a home loss to So Miss...followed by an outright dog win at Marshall last week. A few tough games and due for a letdown after last week, don't think 5 points near enough to cover against a revenging rested Memphis bunch. Lay the 5...
The betting public will most likely jump all over the Ball St. Cinderella story, an undefeated team playing at home on ESPN with BCS-bustin' dreams still alive. Ball St. has all the pressure in the world here, expect a confident WMU to show up tonight. Will agree BSU should win the game, really think WMU has enough moxy to keep this close. These 2 traditionally play close (think traveling dog has won last two outright) both statistically and score-wise. WMU turned the ball over 3 times last year, lost 27-23. Ball St coming in off a tough emotional win at Mt. Pleasant last week, Western has had an additional 4 days rest and preparation here. They totally shut down Ball's run game last 2 years, and think pass-d is adequate enough to keep points fairly low. Don't need a win here, just enough plays to cover 10.5, think the Bronc's can do!! Good enough to beat Illini, should be able to hang here...
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The betting public will most likely jump all over the Ball St. Cinderella story, an undefeated team playing at home on ESPN with BCS-bustin' dreams still alive. Ball St. has all the pressure in the world here, expect a confident WMU to show up tonight. Will agree BSU should win the game, really think WMU has enough moxy to keep this close. These 2 traditionally play close (think traveling dog has won last two outright) both statistically and score-wise. WMU turned the ball over 3 times last year, lost 27-23. Ball St coming in off a tough emotional win at Mt. Pleasant last week, Western has had an additional 4 days rest and preparation here. They totally shut down Ball's run game last 2 years, and think pass-d is adequate enough to keep points fairly low. Don't need a win here, just enough plays to cover 10.5, think the Bronc's can do!! Good enough to beat Illini, should be able to hang here...
With Western Mich not getting it done last night, "Paybacks" now stand at 8-5. A couple non-system qualifiers to consider that may be worth a look...
Being an MAC alumni, have followed these guys (and Coaches!) fairly closely over the years. One of the bigger MAC Rivalries, my roots here, being Toledo and BGSU. Toledo's Glass Bowl one of the true home-field advantages in the league. Morever, like Joe Tiller said sayonara last week...Toledo's Tom Amstutz on the sidelines for the last time. Has always been a "player's Coach" and his guys love him. Not fired, not asked to step down, just his time! Rumors persist at BG, that Greg Brandon may likewise be on the Falcon sideline for the last time. He has the better time. But really don't expect his guys to lay it all out for him like the Rockets will do to send their man out on a win. Too much emotion, too many intangibles..love the Rockets + 1.5
West Va. has had Pitt circled for a year! Bigtime Rivalry game always. And sailing along to the National Championship Game last year...laid an egg at home and Pitt gets the win as 20+ point dogs! Pitt knocked around last week by Cincy. Truly a case of a match-up advantage here, I just don't think Pitt's physical game will be able to match points with speed and finesse of WV skill players. Expect WV to get Payback in a big way...lay the 3...
GOOD LUCK
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With Western Mich not getting it done last night, "Paybacks" now stand at 8-5. A couple non-system qualifiers to consider that may be worth a look...
Being an MAC alumni, have followed these guys (and Coaches!) fairly closely over the years. One of the bigger MAC Rivalries, my roots here, being Toledo and BGSU. Toledo's Glass Bowl one of the true home-field advantages in the league. Morever, like Joe Tiller said sayonara last week...Toledo's Tom Amstutz on the sidelines for the last time. Has always been a "player's Coach" and his guys love him. Not fired, not asked to step down, just his time! Rumors persist at BG, that Greg Brandon may likewise be on the Falcon sideline for the last time. He has the better time. But really don't expect his guys to lay it all out for him like the Rockets will do to send their man out on a win. Too much emotion, too many intangibles..love the Rockets + 1.5
West Va. has had Pitt circled for a year! Bigtime Rivalry game always. And sailing along to the National Championship Game last year...laid an egg at home and Pitt gets the win as 20+ point dogs! Pitt knocked around last week by Cincy. Truly a case of a match-up advantage here, I just don't think Pitt's physical game will be able to match points with speed and finesse of WV skill players. Expect WV to get Payback in a big way...lay the 3...
I love a Dog with Double Revenge, esp. when they are the far superior team. Like them more when they're coming in off a straight-up dog win! Think the linesmakers are looking at this with a major "letdown" in mind. Pitt comes into this game off an emotional dog win vs. WVU. An emotional loss to Cinci before that. Already going to a Bowl Game, no real "need" to perform. UConn also already in a Bowl, so really think Pitt's revenge (and more talent!) more of a motivation here. Last year UConn embarrassed Pitt, taking full advantage of 6-YES 6-Pitt TO's. Don't think Wanstadt will allow any letdown here, should have Panthers motivated...TAKE the 2.5 pts..don't think you'll need 'em!
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One Payback for 12-06:
I love a Dog with Double Revenge, esp. when they are the far superior team. Like them more when they're coming in off a straight-up dog win! Think the linesmakers are looking at this with a major "letdown" in mind. Pitt comes into this game off an emotional dog win vs. WVU. An emotional loss to Cinci before that. Already going to a Bowl Game, no real "need" to perform. UConn also already in a Bowl, so really think Pitt's revenge (and more talent!) more of a motivation here. Last year UConn embarrassed Pitt, taking full advantage of 6-YES 6-Pitt TO's. Don't think Wanstadt will allow any letdown here, should have Panthers motivated...TAKE the 2.5 pts..don't think you'll need 'em!
I love a Dog with Double Revenge, esp. when they are the far superior team. Like them more when they're coming in off a straight-up dog win! Think the linesmakers are looking at this with a major "letdown" in mind. Pitt comes into this game off an emotional dog win vs. WVU. An emotional loss to Cinci before that. Already going to a Bowl Game, no real "need" to perform. UConn also already in a Bowl, so really think Pitt's revenge (and more talent!) more of a motivation here. Last year UConn embarrassed Pitt, taking full advantage of 6-YES 6-Pitt TO's. Don't think Wanstadt will allow any letdown here, should have Panthers motivated...TAKE the 2.5 pts..don't think you'll need 'em!
You go Buc!
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Quote Originally Posted by BucBacker:
One Payback for 12-06:
I love a Dog with Double Revenge, esp. when they are the far superior team. Like them more when they're coming in off a straight-up dog win! Think the linesmakers are looking at this with a major "letdown" in mind. Pitt comes into this game off an emotional dog win vs. WVU. An emotional loss to Cinci before that. Already going to a Bowl Game, no real "need" to perform. UConn also already in a Bowl, so really think Pitt's revenge (and more talent!) more of a motivation here. Last year UConn embarrassed Pitt, taking full advantage of 6-YES 6-Pitt TO's. Don't think Wanstadt will allow any letdown here, should have Panthers motivated...TAKE the 2.5 pts..don't think you'll need 'em!
I have been waiting all week to get a line posted for this game! A game of such magnitude (LOL, to some!) that some of you guys may not be able to get it. For those that can, seems like easy money...buried among the bigger Bowls, the Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl goes Sat at 11 a.m EST (ESPN2)...
Mt Union (OH) and (Wisc) WhiteWater will be facing each other for the 4th consecutive year. After winning the first 2, Mt.U got caught last yr. with the classic case of over-confidence and the "intangible" factor I preach in Bowl Games...and got whipped!! Coming off another undefeated season, this senior-heavy team will be more than ready to revenge last year's loss to the WhiteWater team that lost 16 seniors and has relied mostly on fresh/soph's this year. Mt. has a running back named Nate Kmic that holds every 3-A rushing record in the books...and who was a non-factor in last year's game. A QB that's been a 3 1/2 year starter. Years ago, I listened to a bookie who used to tell you "bet the car and walk home"....really think this is one of the games you can! I'll lay the 7 in a heartbeat...and Mt will get their payback...
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I have been waiting all week to get a line posted for this game! A game of such magnitude (LOL, to some!) that some of you guys may not be able to get it. For those that can, seems like easy money...buried among the bigger Bowls, the Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl goes Sat at 11 a.m EST (ESPN2)...
Mt Union (OH) and (Wisc) WhiteWater will be facing each other for the 4th consecutive year. After winning the first 2, Mt.U got caught last yr. with the classic case of over-confidence and the "intangible" factor I preach in Bowl Games...and got whipped!! Coming off another undefeated season, this senior-heavy team will be more than ready to revenge last year's loss to the WhiteWater team that lost 16 seniors and has relied mostly on fresh/soph's this year. Mt. has a running back named Nate Kmic that holds every 3-A rushing record in the books...and who was a non-factor in last year's game. A QB that's been a 3 1/2 year starter. Years ago, I listened to a bookie who used to tell you "bet the car and walk home"....really think this is one of the games you can! I'll lay the 7 in a heartbeat...and Mt will get their payback...
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