NHL Period Total Fade

Period total over 1.5 fade system. I started this last season and back checked stats from the previous 2 seasons. From 2015-2017, over 90% of games played had at least 1 period with a period over 1.5

I had Fade on my mind but it's a chase system 

I never looked at NHL period totals. If the game total is 5.5, do they set the first period at 1.5 or 2? I'm guessing 1.5. Also, will they set all periods the same or adjust after each period?

I use bet365 for these hets. They usually dont pist the 2nd or 3rd period until the previous one is over. Totals are 1.5/period
I havent seen them change in regards to the game totals.

Interesting. A 5.5 total breaks down to 1.83 goals per period, so in theory there is an advantage to betting the over 1.5.

Best of luck, I will keep an eye on this one. Maybe do a little research of my own as well.

Here are the numbers from 2015-2016

Looking at line history by period, I noticed that for a 5.5 total, more often than not you'll get +odds betting the 1.5 over in period 1. If that goes under the odds flip to anywhere from -130 to -165 (in general) for over 1.5 in periods 2-3. I think the value lies in betting only period 1 over.

With the higher odds and chasing through 3 periods, a single loss will be almost 10 units lost at -130 if you chase to win 1 unit.

I'm in the middle of testing last year, and so far over 50% of the games of 5.5 totals go over 1.5 in period 1. At plus odds and playing on labby line, could be a good little profit.

If someone is good at writing scripts for research, please post the formula on this thread. I can't wrap my head around those scripts, tried and failed numerous times.

I can script this is Excel. Just a lot of data to pull. Dan, if you want , PM me and maybe we can work together on wining some money.

Also, if Period 1 + 2 are both under, the probably of the 3rd hitting is over 90%. Skipping the 1st and 2nd period bet all together and betting large on the 3rd may be just as profitable with less risk 

My book doesn't have betting on periods 2 and 3 during the game.  All 3 periods are available pre game but not during. Without that, I cannot play this system. 

My Local book only has 1st period so I use bet365 for this system only. 

they don't post totals LIVE in the NHL?

never mind…stupid question…

The only way I could play this would be to do so on a labby line for period 1 only. Period 1 has the lowest odds and my research shows about a 46.5% win rate on the games I tested at 5.5 total over the last 2 years.

Still thinking about this.

What you could do is only play the first period of one game, then if it doesn't hit play the first period of a 2nd game at a later start time. You would have way less plays per day, but this might reduce risk too. Just a thought, haven't tested it to see if it would work within the start times.

What I've been doing is playing all games that my book has at 5.5 as a total and betting the over 1.5 for Per1. Using a labby line, I play all the early games, then adjust lines for later games. This works well with the NHLs schedule and the first period lasting less than 1 hour. 

Doing the same system only when the total is 6

Betting 1st period only march had a 5game losing streak. Betting a period chase per game had 2 losing games so a labbyline is what i'll use. Backtested using SBR untill I was blocked on last Oct. What is a good site to backtest? cant find one on Covers.I wonder how a Stoffo parlay would work?

The 2 losing games mentioned before were for the year not for March