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NHL GA/GF DIFF Trial

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Posted: #51
any plays today? and a noob question - how do the chase plays work ? thnx 
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by buntyketti:

any plays today? and a noob question - how do the chase plays work ? thnx 


No plays today, either teams are playing B2B or back-up goalie is in. The system has been a bit cold lately, haven't had a winning day since we went 4-0 on Tuesday. That being said, dogs have been winning at a greater rate, it was bound to happen, you just have to weather the storm. Things should be back to normal soon, I'll be posting plays, but won't be playing them all until I see positive results, I'll note the ones I will be playing.

I've cleared all but 1 'chase' play (there only has been a few). Which was PHI yesterday. However, I'm considering adjusting it. Right now I place the team that lost (favored to win) on the chase list and chasing a win. I'm considering placing the team that won (the dog) on the chase list and chasing them to lose to the better team next match.

So for example NAS lost to CJB yesterday, so instead of placing NAS on the chase list, I would place CJB on the chase list, and chase them to lose to a team with a positive GA/GF next time they play one. I haven't really back-tested this method, just an idea I will be looking into when I have time.
 
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Posted: #53
System Record 28-16-1 - Since Nov 4
Parlay - 2-0

Team's that are on the chase list:
PHI x2
NAS
TOR
EDM -135
WAS -155
PIT -109
CHI -111
WAS
NAS
TB

Two plays tomorrow pending starting goalies:
PHI
PIT
 
Prospect
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Posted: #54
System Record 28-16-1 - Since Nov 4
Parlay - 2-0

Team's that are on the chase list:
PHI x2
NAS
TOR
EDM -135
WAS -155
PIT -109
CHI -111
WAS
NAS
TB

Play as of now:
PIT -0.5 Regulation -135
PIT -1 PL -133

Pending starting goalie:
PHI

 
Prospect
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Posted: #55
System Record 28-16-1 - Since Nov 4
Parlay - 2-0

Team's that are on the chase list:
PHI x2
NAS
TOR
EDM -135
WAS -155
PIT -109
CHI -111
WAS
NAS
TB

Play as of now:
PIT -0.5 Regulation -135
PIT -1 PL -133

Parlayed
PIT ML + O5.5 BOS/MTL

Not playing PHI today, CAR has been out shooting opponents like crazy last two games.

Might Parlay O5.5 PHI/CAR + BOS/MTL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #56
System Record 29-16-1 - Since Nov 4
Parlay - 2-1

Team's that are on the chase list:
PHI x2
NAS
TOR
EDM -135
WAS -155
CHI -111
WAS
NAS
TB

Betting O5.5 on BOS/MTL was stupid of me, I barely capped the game, won't make that mistake again.

I did end up grabbing CAR +165 very near puck drop though.
 
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Posted: #57

update.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #58
Sorry, been really busy with school.

I'll post tonights plays if I have time, if you know the plays post them here too
 
Prospect
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Posted: #59
Gonna start this over, not going to play these, just tracking.

As of Dec 6th

Play Today:
CAR (-0.93) vs EDM (0.26) - BET EDM
 
Prospect
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:

Gonna start this over, not going to play these, just tracking.

As of Dec 6th

Play Today:
CAR (-0.93) vs EDM (0.26) - BET EDM


This shouldn't of been a play, starting goalie was out, however I'll count the loss to the record since I did post it.

Record as of Dec 6
0-1

Today's Plays:
CHI (0.18) vs NYI (-0.80) - BET CHI
TB (-0.67) vs NYR (0.71) - BET NYR
DAL (-0.15) vs SJ (0.29) - BET SJ
ANA (-0.85) vs STL (0.33) - BET STL

** First on depth chart of goalie's must start for these to be plays.


 
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Posted: #61
If you use PF/PA on the last 5 games you might improve the results 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:

If you use PF/PA on the last 5 games you might improve the results 



hmm have you tried this?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:



This shouldn't of been a play, starting goalie was out, however I'll count the loss to the record since I did post it.

Record as of Dec 6
0-1

Today's Plays:
CHI (0.18) vs NYI (-0.80) - BET CHI
TB (-0.67) vs NYR (0.71) - BET NYR
DAL (-0.15) vs SJ (0.29) - BET SJ
ANA (-0.85) vs STL (0.33) - BET STL

** First on depth chart of goalie's must start for these to be plays.




Chase List:
TB

Record as of Dec 6
3-2
 
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Posted: #64
peter just a suggestion, also do track the units / gained lost along with the number of games won / lost. Most of the plays will be juicy favorites

No point having a 60% system in numbers , but a loss in units 

Peace

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:




hmm have you tried this?

I never used it alone but it's something I always look at when capping the NHL.  What you're doing seems to be working well so I'm not saying to change it.  But looking at last 5 in addition might give you a better Idea of a teams current form.  
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:



Chase List:
TB

Record as of Dec 6
3-2


Today's play:

COL (-0.48) vs EDM (0.18) - $153 to win $100
 
Prospect
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:



Today's play:

COL (-0.48) vs EDM (0.18) - $153 to win $100


Record as of Dec 6
4-2

Results as of Dec 9 - +$100

Play's today:
VAN (0.82) vs OTT (-0.41) - PLAY VAN - $157 to win $100

OTT Last 5 Record - 1-4
VAN Last 5 Record - 4-1

TB (-0.64) vs PHI (0.67) - PLAY PHI - $174 to win $100

TB Last 5 Record - 1-4
PHI Last 5 Record - 4-1

BOS (1.15) vs CJB (-0.89) - PLAY BOS - $159 to win $100

BOS Last 5 Record 3-2
CJB Last 5 Record 2-3



Original system plays, but **NOT** playing:
PIT (0.52) vs NYI (-0.81) -  -125 - Would of played PIT

PIT Last 5 Record 2-3
NYI Last 5 Record 3-2 - Two Losses were in OT/SO

** Crosby in and out, I'd avoid this game, losing record in last 5

WIN (-0.14) vs DET (0.74) - -214 Would of played DET

WIN Last 5 Record - 4-1
DET Last 5 Record - 3-2

**Lines too high, only attractive part is DET is at home

EDM (0.28) vs CAL (-0.32) - +118 - Would of played EDM

EDM Last 5 Record - 2-3
CAL Last 5 Record - 3-2

**EDM is slumping, losing record in last 5 games

Testing a new thing to determine 'is-hot' dog teams, NYI has been close in each of their last 5 games, winning 3-2, two losses went into OT or SO.

LA and MON are dead even at 0.00

LA Last 5 Games - 1-4
MON Last 5 Games - 1-4

I'll avoid them, probably would go 1-1 with these two plays.

 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:



Record as of Dec 6
4-2

Results as of Dec 9 - +$100

Play's today:
VAN (0.82) vs OTT (-0.41) - PLAY VAN - $157 to win $100

OTT Last 5 Record - 1-4
VAN Last 5 Record - 4-1

TB (-0.64) vs PHI (0.67) - PLAY PHI - $174 to win $100

TB Last 5 Record - 1-4
PHI Last 5 Record - 4-1

BOS (1.15) vs CJB (-0.89) - PLAY BOS - $159 to win $100

BOS Last 5 Record 3-2
CJB Last 5 Record 2-3



Original system plays, but **NOT** playing:
PIT (0.52) vs NYI (-0.81) -  -125 - Would of played PIT

PIT Last 5 Record 2-3
NYI Last 5 Record 3-2 - Two Losses were in OT/SO

** Crosby in and out, I'd avoid this game, losing record in last 5

WIN (-0.14) vs DET (0.74) - -214 Would of played DET

WIN Last 5 Record - 4-1
DET Last 5 Record - 3-2

**Lines too high, only attractive part is DET is at home

EDM (0.28) vs CAL (-0.32) - +118 - Would of played EDM

EDM Last 5 Record - 2-3
CAL Last 5 Record - 3-2

**EDM is slumping, losing record in last 5 games

Testing a new thing to determine 'is-hot' dog teams, NYI has been close in each of their last 5 games, winning 3-2, two losses went into OT or SO.

LA and MON are dead even at 0.00

LA Last 5 Games - 1-4
MON Last 5 Games - 1-4

I'll avoid them, probably would go 1-1 with these two plays.



Original System - 10-2

New System as of Dec 10 - 3-0

Results as of Dec 9 - +$400 - 4-0


EDM and LA are not plays, EDM is B2B and LA is playing back-up.

Going to continue to track both new system and original


 
Prospect
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Posted: #69
Original System - 10-2

New System as of Dec 10 - 3-0

Results as of Dec 9 - +$400 - 4-0

December 11 - No Plays
 
Prospect
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Posted: #70
Original System - 10-2

New System as of Dec 10 - 3-0

Results as of Dec 9 - +$400 - 4-0

December 12 - No Plays
 
Prospect
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Posted: #71
Original System - 10-2

New System as of Dec 10 - 3-0

Results as of Dec 9 - +$400 - 4-0

December 13 Plays:

LA (-0.03) vs BOS (1.18) - BET BOS - $150 to win $100

BOS LAST 5 - 3-2
LA LAST 5 - 1-4

DAL (-0.21) vs NYR (0.93) - BET NYR - $158 to win $100

DAL LAST 5 - 3-2
NYR LAST 5 - 3-2

VAN (0.90) vs CJB (-0.93) - BET VAN - $180 to win $100

VAN LAST 5 - 4-1
CJB LAST 5 - 2-3


Not Playing:
MIN
MON
SJ
 
Prospect
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Posted: #72
NJ (-0.45) vs FLA (0.23) - BET FLA - $150 to win $100

NJ LAST 5 - 3-2
FLA LAST 5 - 3-2
 
Prospect
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:

NJ (-0.45) vs FLA (0.23) - BET FLA - $150 to win $100

NJ LAST 5 - 3-2
FLA LAST 5 - 3-2


err $160 to win $100, plays were delayed today due to me having a midterm, sorry folks.

FLA
VAN
BOS
NYR

all fit the new system
 
Prospect
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Posted: #74
Original System - 12-6

New System as of Dec 10 - 4-3

Results as of Dec 9 - +$2 - 4-3

Messed up with NYR and FLA, good thing I'm only doing trail and real bets. I'll be starting real bets Thurs.

December 14 - No Plays
 
 
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Posted: #75
New System as of Dec 10 - 4-3

Results as of Dec 9 - +$2 - 4-3

December 15 - VAN -1 PL -112
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