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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    NFL Week 12 Betting System

    danielmphan
    professorkopak
    go2guys
    sergio1994
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 933
    Posts: 20
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 18, 2008 - 8:53 AM ET #1

    System Plays for Week 12
     
    1) Play against a home team who has better offense & defense
     
    CIN
    SF
     
    2) Playing on the road teams whose have better offense & defense
     
    HOU
    BUFF
    TB
    CHI
    MIN
    WAS
     
    Check the lines before game times. It's best to wager your bet 15 minutues before the game start.
     
     
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    System Plays for Week 12
     
    1) Play against a home team who has better offense & defense
     
    CIN
    SF
     
    2) Playing on the road teams whose have better offense & defense
     
    HOU
    BUFF
    TB
    CHI
    MIN
    WAS
     
    Check the lines before game times. It's best to wager your bet 15 minutues before the game start.
     
     
     
    professorkopak
    professorkopak
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    Posts: 263
    Posted: Nov. 18, 2008 - 7:53 PM ET #2

     What happens if each team is favored by 20. Of course you would not play any team.You must have a value line. Teams that are dogs are the best plays when they are playing non contenders. Houston is perfect. Buffalo has been very bad in the last 5 games. They also had 4 turnovers in the last game. That is a bad sign.They are playing at the hardest place to play in cold weather over the lat 20 years, K C.Chicago lost to the spread by more than 28 in the last game.That is a very bad sign. They are playing a very bad St Louis though, but it is likely this game will be closer than St louis's  last 3 games. T B, Minn, and Wash. are contenders. That is good when they are playing non contenders. Seattle is bad now so Wash is a better play than the other 4 Houston and Wash are the best plays . Minn is good play using your material .T B has been a horrid Nov and Dec team traveling North .Most of that though was when they were a losing team. They opened at-9 and went to -8 1/2. That is a bad sign when they are going down and not up to the worse team in football. They are playing a team that desperately wants to win a game. Simply using 1 set of stats is not enough. You must consider other things independent of what you use.
    Reply
     What happens if each team is favored by 20. Of course you would not play any team.You must have a value line. Teams that are dogs are the best plays when they are playing non contenders. Houston is perfect. Buffalo has been very bad in the last 5 games. They also had 4 turnovers in the last game. That is a bad sign.They are playing at the hardest place to play in cold weather over the lat 20 years, K C.Chicago lost to the spread by more than 28 in the last game.That is a very bad sign. They are playing a very bad St Louis though, but it is likely this game will be closer than St louis's  last 3 games. T B, Minn, and Wash. are contenders. That is good when they are playing non contenders. Seattle is bad now so Wash is a better play than the other 4 Houston and Wash are the best plays . Minn is good play using your material .T B has been a horrid Nov and Dec team traveling North .Most of that though was when they were a losing team. They opened at-9 and went to -8 1/2. That is a bad sign when they are going down and not up to the worse team in football. They are playing a team that desperately wants to win a game. Simply using 1 set of stats is not enough. You must consider other things independent of what you use.
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 19, 2008 - 9:06 AM ET #3

    Professorkopak,
     
    There was a case last week on CHIC/GB. CHIC has better offense & defense on the road, but CHIC was a road dog...Therefore, Greenbay won....
     
    This week, MIN is in the same situation. Look at the stat, they have better offense & defense, but they are the road dog....I am thinking that I have to take Jacksonsville...?
     
    The following teams are still the plays:
    HOU
    BUFF
    WAS
    SF
    CIN
     
    I am still thinking about TB & CHIC.
     
    TB looks good because it meets 2 conditions:
    1) Favor on the road who has better offense & defense
    2) The Turn Over is equal to Detroit, and they have better ToP.
     
    Reply
    Professorkopak,
     
    There was a case last week on CHIC/GB. CHIC has better offense & defense on the road, but CHIC was a road dog...Therefore, Greenbay won....
     
    This week, MIN is in the same situation. Look at the stat, they have better offense & defense, but they are the road dog....I am thinking that I have to take Jacksonsville...?
     
    The following teams are still the plays:
    HOU
    BUFF
    WAS
    SF
    CIN
     
    I am still thinking about TB & CHIC.
     
    TB looks good because it meets 2 conditions:
    1) Favor on the road who has better offense & defense
    2) The Turn Over is equal to Detroit, and they have better ToP.
     
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 19, 2008 - 10:01 AM ET #4

    There are a lot of actions going to the following games
     
    NE +2 over Miami 94%
    NYG -3 over AZ 98%
    WAS -3.5 over SEA 88%
     
     
     
    Reply
    There are a lot of actions going to the following games
     
    NE +2 over Miami 94%
    NYG -3 over AZ 98%
    WAS -3.5 over SEA 88%
     
     
     
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 19, 2008 - 10:04 AM ET #5

    Looking at the current line, I really these 4 teams
     
    HOU
    WAS
    IND
    GB 
     
    Not system play, but I am looking at them at a different angle, I just know that they will cover by looking at the lines...
     
     
    Reply
    Looking at the current line, I really these 4 teams
     
    HOU
    WAS
    IND
    GB 
     
    Not system play, but I am looking at them at a different angle, I just know that they will cover by looking at the lines...
     
     
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 23, 2008 - 12:28 PM ET #6

    NFL Sunday 11/23/08
    1pm
    NE -2 over MIA
    NYJ +5.5 over TEN
    SF +9.5 over DAL
    BUFF -3 over KC
     
    Reply
    NFL Sunday 11/23/08
    1pm
    NE -2 over MIA
    NYJ +5.5 over TEN
    SF +9.5 over DAL
    BUFF -3 over KC
     
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 23, 2008 - 3:32 PM ET #7

    1) Play against a home team who has better offense & defense
     
    CIN
    SF
     
    2) Playing on the road teams whose have better offense & defense
     
    HOU
    BUFF
    TB
    CHI
    MIN
    WAS ~ pending
     
    NE
    NYJ
    Reply
    1) Play against a home team who has better offense & defense
     
    CIN
    SF
     
    2) Playing on the road teams whose have better offense & defense
     
    HOU
    BUFF
    TB
    CHI
    MIN
    WAS ~ pending
     
    NE
    NYJ
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 23, 2008 - 7:24 PM ET #8

    WAS - PUSH
    Reply
    WAS - PUSH
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posted: Nov. 23, 2008 - 7:25 PM ET #9

    Sunday Night Football
    SD -3 over IND
     
    Reply
    Sunday Night Football
    SD -3 over IND
     
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 10:46 AM ET #10

    What a good week!
     
    MNF 11/24
    No System Plays, but I like GB myself.
     
    Reply
    What a good week!
     
    MNF 11/24
    No System Plays, but I like GB myself.
     
     
    go2guys
    go2guys
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    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 1:35 PM ET #11

    New Orleans will win by 10+
    Reply
    New Orleans will win by 10+
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 3:00 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by go2guys:

    New Orleans will win by 10+

    There is no statistics to prove that NO will win by 10.

     Overall  Home/Away
     AF-AA  AF-AA
    GB 27.4-20.9 27.8-23.8
    NO 26.6-24.9 30.6-20.4

    Overall GB is +4.8
    GB AF +0.8
    GB AA +4

    Home/Away NO +6.2
    NO AF +2.8
    NO AA +3.4

    6.2-4.8= 1.5

    This is where we have the line NO -1.5 ????? How can NO win by 10??? I don't get your point.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by go2guys:

    New Orleans will win by 10+

    There is no statistics to prove that NO will win by 10.

     Overall  Home/Away
     AF-AA  AF-AA
    GB 27.4-20.9 27.8-23.8
    NO 26.6-24.9 30.6-20.4

    Overall GB is +4.8
    GB AF +0.8
    GB AA +4

    Home/Away NO +6.2
    NO AF +2.8
    NO AA +3.4

    6.2-4.8= 1.5

    This is where we have the line NO -1.5 ????? How can NO win by 10??? I don't get your point.

     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 3:01 PM ET #13

    GB and OVER 51
    Reply
    GB and OVER 51
     
    sergio1994
    sergio1994
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    Posts: 5369
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 3:55 PM ET #14

    Nice  looking system.

    What's the ytd since you've started looking at this? 
    Reply
    Nice  looking system.

    What's the ytd since you've started looking at this? 
     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 4:38 PM ET #15

    After lost 30G last year on NFL (just because my dump ass listened to HOTLINE), I got mad and come up with 2 Betting System in NFL.
     
    System A - 10-1 (from week 3 - 12)
    There is 1 or 2 play a week - it's worth a DIME PLAY
     
    System B - 28-7-1 (from week 3 - 12)
    There are about 3-5 plays a week - it's worth NICKEL PLAY
     
    I am getting most of my money back...
     
    Reply
    After lost 30G last year on NFL (just because my dump ass listened to HOTLINE), I got mad and come up with 2 Betting System in NFL.
     
    System A - 10-1 (from week 3 - 12)
    There is 1 or 2 play a week - it's worth a DIME PLAY
     
    System B - 28-7-1 (from week 3 - 12)
    There are about 3-5 plays a week - it's worth NICKEL PLAY
     
    I am getting most of my money back...
     
     
    go2guys
    go2guys
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    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 11:05 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by danielmphan:

    There is no statistics to prove that NO will win by 10.

     Overall  Home/Away
     AF-AA  AF-AA
    GB 27.4-20.9 27.8-23.8
    NO 26.6-24.9 30.6-20.4

    Overall GB is +4.8
    GB AF +0.8
    GB AA +4

    Home/Away NO +6.2
    NO AF +2.8
    NO AA +3.4

    6.2-4.8= 1.5

    This is where we have the line NO -1.5 ????? How can NO win by 10??? I don't get your point.

     

     

    You get my point now???

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by danielmphan:

    There is no statistics to prove that NO will win by 10.

     Overall  Home/Away
     AF-AA  AF-AA
    GB 27.4-20.9 27.8-23.8
    NO 26.6-24.9 30.6-20.4

    Overall GB is +4.8
    GB AF +0.8
    GB AA +4

    Home/Away NO +6.2
    NO AF +2.8
    NO AA +3.4

    6.2-4.8= 1.5

    This is where we have the line NO -1.5 ????? How can NO win by 10??? I don't get your point.

     

     

    You get my point now???

     
    danielmphan
    danielmphan
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    Posts: 340
    Posted: Nov. 25, 2008 - 9:08 AM ET #17

    Yup I do. I actually changed my bet at the last minute...
    Reply
    Yup I do. I actually changed my bet at the last minute...
     
    go2guys
    go2guys
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2008 - 1:14 PM ET #18

    It is ok if you lost your money. From now on, trust me. I don't lose.
    Reply
    It is ok if you lost your money. From now on, trust me. I don't lose.
     
    go2guys
    go2guys
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2008 - 1:15 PM ET #19

    As for your stats question. Check out GB's dome history, or how about Dome teams playing at home after 3 weeks off, or how about Drew Brees MVP.
    Reply
    As for your stats question. Check out GB's dome history, or how about Dome teams playing at home after 3 weeks off, or how about Drew Brees MVP.
     
     
    danielmphan
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2008 - 5:01 PM ET #20

    i actually lost money on the under...
    Reply
    i actually lost money on the under...
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