NFL System Question

I was just looking into some NFL ATS results and was wondering if anyone has any statistics for teams following a bye week. I looked at last season and it had a record ATS of 20-12 62.5%

 

Has anyone ever heard of this kind of system? I mean it makes sense to me that these teams would cover the spread consistantly when they have had an exta week of rest versus a team that has only had 6 days rest.

I looked back to 2004 and came up with a winning rate of 58.22%. There was only one losing year.

 

2004 15-17 46.8%

2005 19-12-1 61.2%

2006 19-13 59.3%

2007 19-12-1 61.2%

2008 20-12 62.5%

 

Last 5 Years 92-66-2 58.22%

 

Any Thoughts?

I think about 58% is the break even point with juice figured in, so it looks like you would be about even IF you were betting the same amount in every game. Four of those years are good BUT 2004 would have killed the system and I doubt you would have continued the system after 2004; at least it doesn't look like you would be losing though. If you would have started in 2005 you would be extatic BUT what will 2009 bring?

Actually 52% is the break even point not 58% with the juice according to my math

Let me expand a little bit to see if it makes sense.

 

If there were 100 games and you won 58 of them hence 58%

 

You were betting $110 to make $100

 

58 wins will give $5,800 and the 42 losses would equal to $4,620

 

So, there would be a profit by straight betting