NFL Favorite Loss System

Question

I have back tested teams which have lost straight up as the largest ATS favorites each week from 2005 to 2012 (ex, 2012 Week 1 New Orleans was -8, but they lost SU). Here is what I found:

3 game chase (weeks 1 to 14), the record is 117-9. Using -110 lines the you would be up 63 units (7.89 units per year). Two years would have lost money.

Game breakdown for the past 8 years:

Game A = 68-58 for 54%

Game B = 37-21 for 64%

Game C = 12-9 for 57%

64% winning percentage is great for NFL. Throw in a labby line and you may be golden, however, in the 2006-07 year, it went 3-5. Number of B games per year varies between 4 and 8.

I will be tracking this a little closer this year. I think I will only play B games on a labby line. (for a team to qualify for a B game, it must loose Game A ATS, not just skip Game A).

All of the information and additional stats can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aut5sPYPWjN6dDFSZmxlbWZVUjFFRkxiRkg3RHB5enc#gid=0

You will see alot of information, including summary of 4 game chases, and chasing not only the top ATS loser, but also top 3 teams.

Let me know what you think.

Good luck this year

Bart_ · Answer

I have back tested teams which have lost straight up as the largest ATS favorites each week from 2005 to 2012 (ex, 2012 Week 1 New Orleans was -8, but they lost SU). Here is what I found:

3 game chase (weeks 1 to 14), the record is 117-9. Using -110 lines the you would be up 63 units (7.89 units per year). Two years would have lost money.

Game breakdown for the past 8 years:

Game A = 68-58 for 54%

Game B = 37-21 for 64%

Game C = 12-9 for 57%

64% winning percentage is great for NFL. Throw in a labby line and you may be golden, however, in the 2006-07 year, it went 3-5. Number of B games per year varies between 4 and 8.

I will be tracking this a little closer this year. I think I will only play B games on a labby line. (for a team to qualify for a B game, it must loose Game A ATS, not just skip Game A).

All of the information and additional stats can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aut5sPYPWjN6dDFSZmxlbWZVUjFFRkxiRkg3RHB5enc#gid=0

You will see alot of information, including summary of 4 game chases, and chasing not only the top ATS loser, but also top 3 teams.

Let me know what you think.

Good luck this year

Luckydan · Answer

Pittsburgh on the clock for week 2?GL

Bart_ · Answer

Week 1 ResultsPittsburgh enters chase. Lost week 1 as 6 point favorites. Week 2 PlaysPittsburgh A

TheBeefMan · Answer

Being that this wins at about 57%, I think you would be better off betting straight up to win 3 units per game. Less volatility.

TheBeefMan · Answer

Steelers: game 2 Eagles: game 1Are these the plays for this week?

Bart_ · Answer

Yup.

Uuggghhhh · Answer

Hi Bart,

I looked over your docs and read your post and I am confused. How is the system 117-9 when it went 13-12 last year. I looked at google docs for the 3 game chases in 2012, and not counting the first game it looks like the system went 13-12. I am confused as to how you make money with this system. with the juice its losing money for 2012. Am I missing something?

Bart_ · Answer

Hey Ugh,

the 117-9 record is for a 3 game chase.

Last years record was 15-14, but if you did a 3 game chase you would have gone 15-0. That's how you may be able to make money.

As I said earlier, this system is not perfect, it does have losses, but B games are running around 64%...not bad.

Uuggghhhh · Answer

lol, im so confused.  Was philly this past week and b game? and is steelers this week a c game?

Bart_ · Answer

Philly was A game on Thursday. Pitts is B game on Sunday.

NFL Favorite Loss System

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