System 1 - Poor NFL Teams and Totals in Opening Week
Sometimes a team, or group of teams will leave a bad taste in your mouth from one year, heading into the next. The gambler, as a rule, does not like bad teams, because at some point he lost badly playing on them, but somehow it is easier to swallow taking a bad loss on a good team.What I decided to do is see if these bad teams from a year ago had
any predictability in Week 1 of the next season against the total.
Chances are they couldn't stop anyone last year, and have put a focus on
defense in the draft and the free agent market.
The first thing to do is define a bad team. For the sake of this
situation, a bad team is a losing one, any team that lost nine games or
more last season. No one can argue that 7-9 or worse was a good season,
unless they were a spin master.
What we find is these teams have played to the under at a mark of 85-59-2 good for 59% winners on the low end of the totals in week one games if they are home.
So what happens when these teams play to a high total, do the results
get even better, since we have predicated our situation on defensive
improvements?
The answer is a resounding yes! If these teams that lost nine or more
games last year are playing their first game home to a total of greater
than 44, the under is 18-6 for 75% winners.
If we just measure our original situation, of losing nine or more
last year and playing at home in week 1, and look at home favorites
versus home dogs we see another avenue:
Home Favorite: Under is 40-33 (54.8%)
Home Underdog: Under is 43-25-2 (63.2%)
As you can see home dogs have performed extremely well in this
situation. So there you have something to look for in NFL week 1 games,
as there has been a huge totals bias on these losing teams from a year
ago.
System 2 - NFL Bye Weeks and Totals
Lots of players like to look at angles for teams after their bye week in the NFL and most everything I have seen relates to the ATS situations. I have found that there are some good ones. I have never recalled seeing anything on totals in games following a team's bye week. I am about to share one with you, that is pretty potent.The NFL began the bye week back in 1990, so this situation is all inclusive back to the onset of the bye week.
What I want to do is key in on a home favorite after a bye week.
These are teams that are perceived as being better than their opponent,
that is why the oddsmakers
have issued them favorite status for the game. Teams that are better
than their opponent, well-rested and playing at home, tend to dominate
their opponent with a defense that is fresh.
Looking back at all home favorites after a bye week, a pretty simple notion at that, we see the following results:
169-129 to the under or 56.7% winners! That is just shy of 300 games and
a lot of logic, we are connecting on a rock solid 56.7%.
If they truly are the type of team that has the potential to dominate
with their defense, then lower totals will define them as such. So, if
you take the same situation and the total set for the game is less than
43:
113-72 to the under or 61.1% winners with still a large sample size of nearly 200 games.
We can also look at them as having to be a good team, one that is .500 or better on the season:
These teams are 88-52 to the under or 62.9% winners.
If we make sure it is going to be a competitive game, so they show up
with the 'A' game, then we take a new look at them with a line of -6 or
less they are 56-21 to the under or 72.7%.
If their opponent scored 28 points or less in their last game they are 46-13 to the under, which is a lofty 78.0%.
If we add one more condition, that being that our play on team's last
opponent scored less than 20 points on them (defense playing well),
then we get an amazing 27-4 to the under, or 87.1%.
System 3 - NFL Road Dogs Before Bye
Play on any road dog before their bye week in the NFL if the line is more than +3. This situation is 105-70-3 ATS, which is a nice 60% winning ratio since 1980.
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