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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    New season new system

    kosmos4
    mjm1012
    turbojackhammer
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 1399
    Posts: 11
     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 28, 2015 - 8:03 PM ET #1

    Late post but take it as it is. Emplying a system where im betting 10 teams only for the whole season and on specific spots.

    0-0

    Cin -1.5
    Stl -1.5
    Lad -1.5
    Det -1.5
    Col

    All 1 units
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Late post but take it as it is. Emplying a system where im betting 10 teams only for the whole season and on specific spots.

    0-0

    Cin -1.5
    Stl -1.5
    Lad -1.5
    Det -1.5
    Col

    All 1 units
     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 28, 2015 - 8:11 PM ET #2

    Adding 

    hou

    I made simple simulations which discounted injuries and trades and if that somehow holds up, the system may hit somewhere from 53% to 65%.
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    Adding 

    hou

    I made simple simulations which discounted injuries and trades and if that somehow holds up, the system may hit somewhere from 53% to 65%.
     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Joined: Feb, 2009
    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 29, 2015 - 1:00 AM ET #3


    3-3

    Cin -1.5  +1.12u
    Stl -1.5    +1.28u
    Lad -1.5  -1u
    Det -1.5   -1u
    Col          -1u
    Hou         +1.15u


    Total (+.55u)


    So-so day but at least it's up

    Tomorrow here are my picks

    Det -1.5 (to win  1.38u)
    Hou (to win 1.18u)
    Kc (to win 1.16u)
    Atl (to win 1.12u)
    Nym (to win .95u)
    Chc (to win 1u)
    Stl -1.5 (to win 1.2u)


    The system has fixed variables and does not take into consideration anything but those included in it. It was not meant to win in a short period of time but rather to get at least +30 units when the season ends




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    3-3

    Cin -1.5  +1.12u
    Stl -1.5    +1.28u
    Lad -1.5  -1u
    Det -1.5   -1u
    Col          -1u
    Hou         +1.15u


    Total (+.55u)


    So-so day but at least it's up

    Tomorrow here are my picks

    Det -1.5 (to win  1.38u)
    Hou (to win 1.18u)
    Kc (to win 1.16u)
    Atl (to win 1.12u)
    Nym (to win .95u)
    Chc (to win 1u)
    Stl -1.5 (to win 1.2u)


    The system has fixed variables and does not take into consideration anything but those included in it. It was not meant to win in a short period of time but rather to get at least +30 units when the season ends




     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 29, 2015 - 4:52 PM ET #4

    Adding 

    Tor (1.1u)
    Sea -1.5 (.96u)
    Stl -1.5 (1.18)

    I smell a good day
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    Adding 

    Tor (1.1u)
    Sea -1.5 (.96u)
    Stl -1.5 (1.18)

    I smell a good day
     
    mjm1012
    mjm1012
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    Posts: 41555
    Posted: Apr. 29, 2015 - 5:51 PM ET #5

    GL
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    GL
     
    turbojackhammer
    turbojackhammer
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    Posts: 983
    Posted: Apr. 29, 2015 - 5:56 PM ET #6

    cngrats sir keep it up and try to post early hehehe
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    cngrats sir keep it up and try to post early hehehe
     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 30, 2015 - 12:09 AM ET #7

    Det -1.5 (to win  1.38u)     
    Hou (to win 1.18u)     
    Kc (to win 1.16u)    
    Atl (to win 1.12u)      
    Nym (to win .95u)     
    Chc (to win 1u)      
    Stl -1.5 (to win 1.2u)      
    Tor (1.1u)      
    Sea -1.5 (.96u)        
    Stl -1.5 (1.18)       


    6-4 (+2.85u)

    total 9-7 (+3.35u)

    as expected, this simple system will never yield out things like 8-0  but is definitely suited for patient bettors grinding it out over a period of time.
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    Det -1.5 (to win  1.38u)     
    Hou (to win 1.18u)     
    Kc (to win 1.16u)    
    Atl (to win 1.12u)      
    Nym (to win .95u)     
    Chc (to win 1u)      
    Stl -1.5 (to win 1.2u)      
    Tor (1.1u)      
    Sea -1.5 (.96u)        
    Stl -1.5 (1.18)       


    6-4 (+2.85u)

    total 9-7 (+3.35u)

    as expected, this simple system will never yield out things like 8-0  but is definitely suited for patient bettors grinding it out over a period of time.
     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 30, 2015 - 12:16 AM ET #8

    YTD 9-7 (56.25%  /   +3.35u)

    These are the picks for today. Remember that I am just blindly following this system and no amount of rationale can sway it. I hope at least one person follows me until the end of the season, just to see if the system pays out.


    STL -1.5
    NYM -1.5
    TOR -1.5
    HOU -1.5


    thanks mjm and tjh 
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    YTD 9-7 (56.25%  /   +3.35u)

    These are the picks for today. Remember that I am just blindly following this system and no amount of rationale can sway it. I hope at least one person follows me until the end of the season, just to see if the system pays out.


    STL -1.5
    NYM -1.5
    TOR -1.5
    HOU -1.5


    thanks mjm and tjh 
     
    turbojackhammer
    turbojackhammer
    Rookie
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    Posts: 983
    Posted: Apr. 30, 2015 - 12:44 AM ET #9

    i like your early post pick and yet im still reviewing, once again thanks
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    i like your early post pick and yet im still reviewing, once again thanks
     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 30, 2015 - 5:21 AM ET #10

    These are the final picks (all bets are always 1 unit and the brackets represent the payout):

    Stl -1.5 (to win 1.2u)
    Laa (.94u)
    Atl -1.5 (1.86u)
    Tor -1.5 (1.32u)
    Nym -1.5 (1.92u)
    Hou -1.5 (1.64u)
    Det (.95u)

    And a full cover parlay (35 trebles) on the other teams as a pseudo hedge (phi/was/cin/oak/cle/sea/kc). If 3 of these hit, then i'll gain around 1unit, which is enough to offset the loss in my original pick and make it a +-0 unit day or a little bit below or above it.

    Personally im not sure with the picks but i already disciplined myself that i will follow this until:

    1. The end of the season
    2. If i go -30 units (which is unlikely since the win rate of the teams that it picks are usually good teams)
    3. If reach +50 units (which is also unlikely considering the bet is always 1 unit and i need to hover around 60+% consistently for around a month or so lol)
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    These are the final picks (all bets are always 1 unit and the brackets represent the payout):

    Stl -1.5 (to win 1.2u)
    Laa (.94u)
    Atl -1.5 (1.86u)
    Tor -1.5 (1.32u)
    Nym -1.5 (1.92u)
    Hou -1.5 (1.64u)
    Det (.95u)

    And a full cover parlay (35 trebles) on the other teams as a pseudo hedge (phi/was/cin/oak/cle/sea/kc). If 3 of these hit, then i'll gain around 1unit, which is enough to offset the loss in my original pick and make it a +-0 unit day or a little bit below or above it.

    Personally im not sure with the picks but i already disciplined myself that i will follow this until:

    1. The end of the season
    2. If i go -30 units (which is unlikely since the win rate of the teams that it picks are usually good teams)
    3. If reach +50 units (which is also unlikely considering the bet is always 1 unit and i need to hover around 60+% consistently for around a month or so lol)
     
     
    kosmos4
    kosmos4
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    Posts: 1315
    Posted: Apr. 30, 2015 - 6:15 AM ET #11

    It is also worth noting that If you tally on a per day basis, the favorites have a considerable edge over the dogs in the past 20 days (13-4 with 3 days where they were tied)

    today the system yielded out a result where the favorites are going to win 5-2 (71.4%) and the last time the result tilted by at least 70% to one side in the past 20 days was on april 10(73.3% - dogs), april 15(80% - favs), and april 18(73.3% - favs). The dogs were averaging 60.3% on days which they won while the favs were averaged 65%.
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    It is also worth noting that If you tally on a per day basis, the favorites have a considerable edge over the dogs in the past 20 days (13-4 with 3 days where they were tied)

    today the system yielded out a result where the favorites are going to win 5-2 (71.4%) and the last time the result tilted by at least 70% to one side in the past 20 days was on april 10(73.3% - dogs), april 15(80% - favs), and april 18(73.3% - favs). The dogs were averaging 60.3% on days which they won while the favs were averaged 65%.
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