New baseball system??

Since football is over and hockey is essentially on a two week break, what a perfect time to talk baseball systems. I am testing the below system with good results so far. This is a 1 bet a day system with specific bet amounts, please follow along.

• Look at all Home teams with -160 or higher odds
• From these heavy favorites, look at the -1.5 run line 
• Bet on the 1 team that gives us the best odds. For example if Tampa is +120 and NYY is +105, we are betting on Tampa
• If two or more teams have the same odds on the run line, bet the team with the better record for the year.
• We have a string of 6 set betting amounts, starting at 1 unit then progressing like this: 1-2-4-6-8-12
• We are betting this string of numbers in consecutive order until we win 2 games in the string. After 2 wins, you go back to the beginning of the string. If you lose the first 5 you do NOT bet the 6th game for 12 units. You take the loss and go back to 1 unit. That would be a 21 unit loss.

In my testing of the 2013 season through July 31, the system is up 111 units. I doubled the unit amout after being up 66 units on June 20. The record so far is 61-53 which is not bad at all for a + odds system. Only went to a 6th game twice.Granted this is a small sample size and I will continue to test 2013 and prior years to see if it works out. Hopefully so and we can have a simple system for 2014. Will report back when I test more.

Thoughts, praise and criticism (on the system not me personally) are welcome. The money management is one of the systems by Tony Stoffo if anyone is familiar with his stuff.

 

I don't trust this system one iota. Way too many 1 run games or dog outright wins. The 21 unit losses will add up quickly. Good luck but I'm gonna pass. Bankroll preservation is my goal. This system could potentially destroy my wad before June 1 . I'll follow this closely tho 

Yeah I saw similar type of heaviest fave of the day take run line system in one of my many google searches, I like the idea behind it.. I was just going to do it on a labby line to reduce risk personally, that way it also keeps it as a 'fun' bet system to play along on the side... The idea of course still making profits.

Looks promising Dan---waiting

Also like Tonys parlay system--it to seem profitable-

Very familiar with Stoffo's work. Good luck with the back testing. 

3 teams... money line or hundicup -1 + martingale sistem works the best last year,only  need good bank management

I'm with you on bankroll preservation. If the backtesting on this works out well and I go forward with this system, I will do so with a very limited amount of bankroll, maybe 5% of my overall bank. You can start this system with as little as 33 units. For a $10 better that's only $330. The only way that you would lose the entire thing is if you lose every game out of the gate. Actually, that would only be 21 units if you lose the first 5.

The difference here is that we aren't betting the heaviest fave. We are still betting on a significant fave but getting + odds on almst every bet. Taking the run line on the biggest fave more often than not still results in having to lay odds.

Anybody recall what te alt. line of a dog covering RL is? Ex. a +150 dog what would the -1.5 line be? I'm guessing +250?

Check the system for 2012 couse 2013 season was relatively good for RL favs and 2012 was bad

LOL. What's a "string" and what's a "set" ?? I am new to this stuff so I am trying to learn from you guys.

I like the idea of playing the mid range fav because the big favs seem to get juiced because they are public favorites, and there are times they seem to play a little lax because they "have the game in the bag".

One problem you have with systems that are dependent on a ML, especially run line odds,  is that the team you play for that day will vary from book to book.  One guy might have Toronto as his play, while another guy will have Texas as the play.  Also, it could vary, depending on when you make the play.  At 10AM, the pick could be Tex.  Two hours later, it could be Det. 

Love the idea Dan. What website are you using for the historical odds?

I used the info at Don Best for the run lines. Previous years did not turn out well so I will not be going forward with this system. Plenty of other proven systems to use. This one is dead. 

Just reading back over this... what about changing the RL-1.5 to a First 5 Innings..  ? No idea if it would work or not.. don't even know the type of odds you receive for this... just an idea while I'm hard at work I thought I'd throw out there..

QUOTE the ONLY way you lose everything is if YOU lose every game out of Gate end quote .

END it right there folks i have lost 6 games or 6 days striaght in bases many times and if ever used any chase system i'd be paying my local a lot of cash daily and he would have shiny new benz in a month!

Busterdouglas your gibberish is starting to grate me... Stop trying to shove your crap down our throats like your spreading a religion.

I hang out in this section of the forum to read about systems and improve at them.. They are great money makers when used with good money management.

So Stop tellingly what I should do.

End rant.

@litero

I believe this is the thread you've been seeking...please PM me for any further details